{"msg": "918\nAXNT20 KNHC 170509\nTWDAT \nTropical Weather Discussion\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n0615 UTC Sat Oct 17 2026\nTropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America\nGulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South\nAmerica, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the\nEquator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite\nimagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.\nBased on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through \n0430 UTC.\n...SPECIAL FEATURES...\nGulf of America Gale Warning: A cold front is moving across the\nnorthwestern Gulf tonight, and extends from Mobile Bay \nsouthwestward across coastal portions of SE Louisiana to 27N94.5W \nthen south-southwestward and inland across eastern Mexico near \nTuxpan. Scattered moderate showers are along most of the front N \nof 23N. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are occurring wihtin \n90 nm of the coast from the front near Tuxpan to the central Bay \nof Campeche. Strong northerly winds of 20 to 30 kt with frequent \ngusts above gale-force dominate most of the waters behind the \nfront and W of SE Louisiana. Seas following the front have built \nto 6 to 10 ft, highest offshore of S Texas. Gale warnings are in \neffect for the Texas coastal waters through Sat morning. The front\nis forecast to continue moving southeastward and reach from near \nCedar Key, Florida to the central Bay of Campeche by Sat morning, \nand from the Straits of Florida to the NW coast of the Yucatan to \nthe central Bay of Campeche by Sun morning. The front is then forecast\nto move just SE of the basin on Mon, where it will gradually \ndissipate through Tue night. Strong to gale-force winds and rough \nto very rough seas are expected in the wake of the front over the \nwaters from the north- central Gulf to the SW Gulf near Veracruz \ntonight, and from the NE Gulf to the central Bay of Campeche by \nSat morning. Recent satellite scatterometer data showed that\nnortherly winds across the Mexican waters S of 25N to Veracruz \nhad increased to 30-40 kt. Seas are expected to build very \nquickly tonight behind the front, reaching 10-14 ft offshore of S \nTexas in the next few hours, and to 15-20 ft offshore of Mexico by\nsunrise. Gale-force winds may continue across the Veracruz area \nwaters through early Mon. Strong high pressure will build over \nthe lower Mississippi Valley in the wake of the front, promoting \nfresh to strong NE to E winds mainly over the eastern half of the \nGulf, and fresh to strong winds NW to N winds across the SW Gulf \nwaters Sat night through Tue. \nPlease read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National \nHurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO headers FZNT02 KNHC/HSFAT2 or at \nwebsite https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further \ndetails.\n...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...\nThe monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of\nSenegal near 14N17W and extends SW to 09N22W. The ITCZ extends \nfrom 07N25W to 11N37W then resumes from 09N40W to the coast of\nGuyana near 06.5N60W. Widely scattered moderate convection is \nnoted from 03N to 09N E of 21.5W to the African coast, and from\n06.5N to 10N between 40W and 50W. Scattered moderate to strong \nconvection is occurring from 04.5N to 12N between 27W and 37W.\n...GULF OF AMERICA...\nSee details above about the Gulf of America Gale Warning.\nAbundant low level moisture has converged over the SE half of\nthe Gulf, ahead of the cold front, where a surface trough lingers\nalong 84W-85W. This moisture is interacting with an upper- level \ntrough over central Gulf along 90W to produce scattered to locally\nnumerous showers and thunderstorms across much of the Gulf E of \n90W. Moderate or weaker winds and seas 2 to 4 ft are found east of\n90W, while strong to gale-force N winds and building seas follow \nthe cold front.\nFor the forecast, the is forecast to reach from near Cedar Key, \nFlorida to the central Bay of Campeche by early Sat morning, and \nfrom the Straits of Florida and the SE Gulf to the eastern Bay of \nCampeche by early Sun morning. The front will then move just SE \nof the area on Mon where it will gradually dissipate through Tue\nnight. Strong to gale-force winds and rough to very rough seas \nare expected in the wake of the front over the west-central Gulf \ntonight, and over the southwest Gulf by Sat morning.  Looking ahead, \nstrong high pressure will build over the lower Mississippi Valley\nin the wake of the front, promoting fresh to strong NE to E winds\nmainly over the eastern half of the Gulf, and fresh to strong \nwinds NW to N winds across the SW Gulf waters Sat night through \nTue. \n...CARIBBEAN SEA...\nAbundant low level moisture is converging across the NW Caribbean\nand interacting with the upper trough across the central Gulf of\nAmerica to produce scattered to numerous moderate to strong\nconvection across the NW basin S of 20N to the Gulf of Honduras\nand W of 81W. A large cluster of strong thunderstorms has\ndeveloped across SW portions between the SE coast of Nicaragua \nand 80W. At the surface, the seasonal pressure gradient across the\nregion is leading to moderate to fresh trades across the central \nbasin between 64W and 80W, with strong easterly winds offshore \nColombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela. Moderate seas prevail \nacross much of the Caribbean, with rough seas 7 to 8 ft offshore \nColombia.\nFor the forecast, as a cold front moves across the Western \nAtlantic and the Gulf of America, the pressure gradient will relax\nacross the Caribbean basin. Under this weather pattern, expect \nmoderate to fresh winds offshore Colombia and in the Gulf of \nVenezuela with moderate to locally rough seas near the coast of \nColombia tonight and Sat. Moderate or weaker winds and slight to \nmoderate seas are forecast elsewhere. An area of showers and \nthunderstorms will continue to affect the NW Caribbean tonight. \nMoisture associated with this feature will merge with the cold \nfront moving across the Gulf this weekend. The front will likely \nreach western Cuba and the entrance to the Yucatan Channel by \nTue.\n...ATLANTIC OCEAN...\nA cold front extends from 31N43W to 26N50W, and then becomes \nstationary to 25.5N74W. A reinforcing cold front follows to the N\nof this first front, extending from 31N48W to 30N64.5W to just W\nof Bermuda. 1024 mb high pressure is centered N of the fronts\nacross the western Atlantic along 56W, and is forcing moderate to\nlocally fresh NE to E winds north of the fronts and E of 70W. \nSeas are 6 to 8 ft in NE swell to the north of the fronts and east\nof 60W, and 3-5 ft elsewhere N of fronts. Gentle to moderate SE \nto S winds prevail W of 70W and into the coast of Florida, where \nscattered showers and thunderstorms are occurring across the SE to\ncentral Florida coastal waters W of 78W. Seas are 2 to 4 ft \nacross these waters. To the southeast, a surface trough is \nanalyzed from 29N37W to 18N40W with a 1013 mb low along the trough\nnear 23.5N37W. An upper level trough along 50W is providing \nfavorable conditions for Scattered moderate isolated strong \nconvection across this area N of 18N between 30W and 50W. The \npressure gradient between the Atlantic ridge and the low center is\ndriving fresh to strong SE to S winds E of the trough and low to \nabout 31W and between 20N and 27N, where seas are 7 to 8 ft. To \nthe S of these features, a low level easterly wave has a surface \ntrough along 37W-38W, S of 16N. Scattered moderate to strong \nconvection is occurring from 04.5N to 12N between 27W and 37W with\nand E this wave. Elsewhere across the Atlantic, moderate or \nweaker winds and seas are evident E of 35W.\nFor the forecast west of 55W, a pair of weak frontal boundaries\nacross the offshore Atlantic east of 70W will merge, then \ndissipate through early Sat, ahead of a strong cold front that \nwill move off the coast of northeast Florida by early Sat morning.\nThe front will reach from 31N72W to the Straits of Florida by \nearly Sun morning, from near 31N70W to western Cuba by early Mon \nmorning, then stall and dissipate into mid week. Strong to near- \ngale force winds and rough to very rough seas will follow the \nfront affecting mainly the waters W of 65W through Tue.\n", "title": "Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion", "id": "1219439381921857538", "issued": "2026-10-17T06:15:00Z", "wmo": "AXNT20", "source": "NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center, received via the National Weather Wire Service", "page": "https://hurricane.terrapin.com/text/1219439381921857538"}