{"msg": "432\nAXPZ20 KNHC 170313\nTWDEP\nTropical Weather Discussion\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n0405 UTC Sat Oct 17 2026\nTropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from\n03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and\nfrom the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following\ninformation is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,\nradar, and meteorological analysis.\nBased on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through\n0305 UTC.\n...SPECIAL FEATURES...\nHurricane Trudy is centered near 15.2N 102.5W at 17/0300 UTC,\nmoving north at 6 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 979\nmb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 80 kt with gusts to 100 kt. \nMax seas are around 32 ft. Numerous moderate to scattered strong\nconvection is evident from 13N to 18N and between 100W and 106W.\nA turn toward the north-northwest and then northwest at a faster\nforward speed is expected overnight and into Saturday. This \ngeneral motion is forecast to continue through Sunday. On the \nforecast track, the center of Trudy will approach the coast of \nsouthwestern and west- central Mexico on Saturday and pass near \nthe coast Saturday night into Sunday. Steady strengthening is \npossible through Saturday. Swells generated by Trudy are \naffecting portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico and will \nspread northward toward west-central Mexico through the weekend. \nThese swells will cause life- threatening surf and rip current \nconditions. Please consult products from your local weather \noffice.\nPlease read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National\nHurricane Center at website - \nhttps://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest NHC \nForecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for \nmore details on Simon and Trudy.\nGale Warning: The pressure gradient between high pressure over\nnorthern Mexico and lower pressures in the deep tropics support \nfresh to strong northerly winds and moderate to rough seas in the\nGulf of Tehuantepec. This early-season Tehuanteper should reach \ngale- force northerlies Sat morning and likely persist through \nTue, before gradually diminishing on Wed. Peak winds should be \naround 45 kt Sat afternoon with largest seas near 17 ft from Sat \nafternoon through Sun night.\n...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...\nThe monsoon trough extends from 09N84W to 08N88W and to 11N94W\nand then from 10N101W to 05N115W and to 05N129W. The ITCZ\nstretches from 04N129W to beyond 06N140W. Scattered moderate to\nisolated strong convection is found south of 09N and east of 91W.\nNumerous moderate to scattered strong convection is present from\n01N to 08N and between 105W and 122W.\n...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...\nPlease see the Special Features section above for information on  \nHurricane Trudy and the Gale Warning issued for the Gulf of \nTehuantepec.\nOutside of the areas described in the Special Features section,\nrecent satellite imagery depict the remnant low of Simon just\nsouthwest of Baja California Sur. Fresh to strong winds and\nmoderate seas are occurring off Cabo San Lucas. Elsewhere,\nmoderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas prevail.\nFor the forecast, Hurricane Trudy will move to 16.3N 103.4W Sat \nmorning, 17.7N 104.4W Sat evening, 19.0N 105.3W Sun morning\napproaching Cabo Corrientes, 20.0N 106.1W Sun evening, weaken to\na tropical storm near 20.6N 106.8W Mon morning, and 20.9N 107.6W\nMon evening. Trudy will weaken to a remnant low over 21.3N \n108.8W late Tue over the entrance to the Gulf of California. In \naddition to Trudy, a Gulf of Tehuantepec gap wind event is ongoing.\nThis early-season Tehuanteper should reach gale-force \nnortherlies Sat morning and likely persist through Tue, before \ngradually diminishing on Wed. Finally looking ahead, an area of \nlow pressure is forecast to form offshore of southern Mexico \nduring the early to middle part of next week. Environmental \nconditions appear conducive for gradual development thereafter, \nand a tropical depression is likely to form during the latter \nhalf of next week while it moves generally westward to west- \nnorthwestward over the eastern and central portions of the East \nPacific. Formation chance is low through 48 hours, and high \nthrough 7 days.\n...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, \nAND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...\nA weak pressure gradient supports moderate or weaker winds across\nthe offshore waters. Seas of 6-8 ft are noted between Ecuador and\nthe Galapagos Islands associated with a long-period cross-equatorial\nswell. Seas of 3-6 ft are prevalent elsewhere.\nFor the forecast, a strong early-season Tehuantepecer gap wind \nevent will cause fresh to locally strong NE winds over the W \nportion of the Guatemala and El Salvador zone Sat night and Sun. \nLarge to very large seas from mixed NW swell from the \nTehuantepecer and SW swell from the Southern Hemisphere will also\nimpact this zone from Sat night through Tue night. Large SW \nswell is impacting the equatorial zones now through Sat night. \nFinally, scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will \ncontinue to impact the offshore waters from Guatemala through \nColombia over at least the next two days.\n...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...\nA strong high pressure north of the basin forces moderate to\nlocally fresh easterly trade winds north of 10N and east of 115W.\nSeas in these waters are 6-8 ft. Moderate to locally fresh\nsoutherly winds and rough seas are found south of the monsoon\ntrough and east of 125W. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and\nmoderate to locally rough seas prevail.\nFor the forecast, little change in winds are expected during the\nnext few days. The large SW swell in our southern waters will \ngradually diminishing by Sun. Looking ahead, a weak cold front \nshould reach our northern border on Tue. While winds should only \nbe moderate or fresh behind the front, large NW swell will \naccompany the front through mid-week.\n", "title": "Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion", "id": "1219416701421420546", "issued": "2026-10-17T04:05:00Z", "wmo": "AXPZ20", "source": "NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center, received via the National Weather Wire Service", "page": "https://hurricane.terrapin.com/text/1219416701421420546"}