{"msg": "024\nAXNT20 KNHC 162222\nTWDAT \nTropical Weather Discussion\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n0015 UTC Fri Oct 16 2026\nTropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America\nGulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South\nAmerica, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the\nEquator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite\nimagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.\nBased on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through \n2200 UTC.\n...SPECIAL FEATURES...\nGulf of America Gale Warning: A cold front has entered the far NW\nGulf and extends from 30N93W to 26N97W. Fresh to strong N winds \nand building seas follow the front, forecast to reach from near \nTampa Bay, Florida to the central Bay of Campeche by early Sat \nmorning, and from the Straits of Florida and the SE Gulf to the \neastern Bay of Campeche by early Sun morning. The front will be \njust SE of the area on Mon where it will gradually dissipate. \nStrong gale force winds and rough to very rough seas are expected \nin the wake of the front over the west-central Gulf tonight, and \nover the southwest Gulf by Sat morning. Frequent gusts to gale-\nforce are forecast elsewhere NW of the front tonight into Sat \nmorning. Looking ahead, strong high pressure will build over the \nlower Mississippi Valley behind the wake of the front, promoting \nfresh to strong NE to E winds mainly over the eastern half of the \nGulf likely through Tue. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast\nissued by the National Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO headers \nFZNT02 KNHC/HSFAT2 or at website \nhttps://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details.\n...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...\nThe monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 13N17W and extends SW\nto 09N34W. The ITCZ extends from 05N45W to 05N54W. Scattered \nmoderate convection is occurring from 06N to 11N between 30W-40W.\n...GULF OF AMERICA...\nSee details above about a Gulf of America Gale Warning.\nAn upper-level trough over the south-central US and a surface \ntrough in the western Gulf are supporting numerous showers and \nthunderstorms across much of the interior Gulf. Another surface \ntrough along the Mexican coast supports scattered moderate \nconvection offshore Veracruz. A cold front has entered the far NW\nGulf and extends from 30N93W to 26N97W. Fresh to strong N winds \nand building seas follow the front.\nFor the forecast, cold front is forecast to reach from near Tampa\nBay, Florida to the central Bay of Campeche by early Sat morning,\nand from the Straits of Florida and the SE Gulf to the eastern \nBay of Campeche by early Sun morning. The front will be just SE of\nthe area on Mon where it will gradually dissipate. Strong gale \nforce winds and rough to very rough seas are expected in the wake \nof the front over the west-central Gulf tonight, and over the \nsouthwest Gulf by Sat morning. Frequent gusts to gale- force are \nforecast elsewhere NW of the front tonight into Sat morning. \nLooking ahead, strong high pressure will build over the lower \nMississippi Valley behind the wake of the front, promoting fresh \nto strong NE to E winds mainly over the eastern half of the Gulf \nlikely through Tue. \n...CARIBBEAN SEA...\nUpper-level diffluence over the NW Caribbean is supporting \nnumerous moderate to strong convection W of 80W. Otherwise, the \nseasonal pressure gradient is leading to moderate to fresh trades \nthrough the basin, with strong easterly winds offshore Colombia \nand in the Gulf of Venezuela. Moderate seas prevail across much of\nthe Caribbean, with rough seas offshore Colombia.\nFor the forecast, as a cold front moves across the Western \nAtlantic and the Gulf of America, the pressure gradient will relax\nacross the basin. Under this weather pattern, expect moderate to \nfresh winds offshore Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela with \nmoderate to locally rough seas near the coast of Colombia tonight \nand Sat. Moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas are \nforecast elsewhere. An area of showers and thunderstorms \nassociated with a surface trough will continue to affect the NW \nCaribbean tonight. Moisture associated with this feature will \nmerge with the cold front moving across the Gulf this weekend. The\nfront will likely reach western Cuba and the Yucatan Channel by \nTue.\n...ATLANTIC OCEAN...\nA cold front extends from 31N45W to 28N50W, and then is \nstationary to 25N70W. Moderate to fresh SW winds, 7-9 ft combined \nseas in NW swell, and scattered showers and thunderstorms are \nactive along the front east of 51W. To the south, a surface trough\nis analyzed along 53W from 12N to 19N, with an upper level low \nnearby supporting scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms \nalong 50W from 14N to 19N. To the northeast, a surface trough is \nanalyzed from 27N37W to 20N39W with a 1011 mb low along the \ntrough near 23N38W. These features are also driving fresh to \nstrong SE winds E of the trough to about 30W and N of 20N. \nDiffluence aloft and east of this trough supports numerous showers\nand thunderstorms from 17N to 27N between 25W and 35W. Elsewhere \nacross the Atlantic, moderate or weaker winds and seas are evident\nacross the basin.\nFor the forecast west of 55W, high pressure off the Carolinas \nwill shift eastward ahead of a strong cold front that will move \noff the coast of northeast Florida by early Sat morning. The front\nwill reach from 31N72W to the Straits of Florida by early Sun \nmorning, and from near 31N71W to western Cuba by early Mon \nmorning, then stall and dissipate through early next week. Strong \nto near-gale force winds and rough to very rough seas will follow \nthe front affecting mainly the waters W of 65W through Tue. \n", "title": "Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion", "id": "1219359425495597058", "issued": "2026-10-16T00:15:00Z", "wmo": "AXNT20", "source": "NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center, received via the National Weather Wire Service", "page": "https://hurricane.terrapin.com/text/1219359425495597058"}