{"msg": "266\nAXPZ20 KNHC 162119\nTWDEP \nTropical Weather Discussion\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n2205 UTC Fri Oct 16 2026\nTropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from\n03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and\nfrom the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following\ninformation is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,\nradar, and meteorological analysis.\nBased on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through\n2100 UTC.\n...SPECIAL FEATURES...\nHurricane Trudy is centered near 14.8N 102.5W at 16/2100 UTC,\nmoving north-northwest at 4 kt. Estimated minimum central\npressure is 982 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 75 kt with\ngusts to 90 kt. Max seas are around 32 ft. Scattered moderate \nand isolated strong conveciton is occurring from 22N-27N between \n98W-104W. A northwestward motion at a faster forward speed is \nforecast through Sunday. On the forecast track, the center of \nTrudy will approach the coast of southwestern and west-central \nMexico on Saturday and pass near the coast Saturday night into \nSunday. Slight strengthening is possible Saturday and Saturday \nnight. Swells generated by Trudy are affecting portions of the \ncoast of southwestern Mexico and will spread northward toward \nwest-central Mexico during the next few days. These swells are \nlikely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.\nPlease consult products from your local weather office.\nThe remnants of Simon are centered near 21.5N 110.3W at 16/2100 \nUTC, moving northwest at 11 kt. Estimated minimum central \npressure is 1006 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with \ngusts to 40 kt. Peak seas are near 7 ft. No deep convection\nremains in association with Simon. Swells generated by the \nremnants of Simon could affect portions of the coast of west-\ncentral Mexico and Baja California Sur during the next day or so.\nThese swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip \ncurrent conditions. Please consult products from your local \nweather office.\nPlease read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National\nHurricane Center at website - \nhttps://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest \nNHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov \nfor more details on Simon and Trudy.\nGale Warning: A Gulf of Tehuantepec gap wind event has started \nthis afternoon. This early-season Tehuanteper should reach gale- \nforce northerlies Sat morning and likely persist through Tue, \nbefore gradually diminishing on Wed. Peak winds should be around \n45 kt Sat afternoon with largest seas near 15 ft from at \nafternoon through Sun night.\n...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...\nThe monsoon trough extends from coastal Costa Rica near 10N86W to\n09N95W. It begins again near 10N101W and extends to 00N130W.  \nNumerous moderate and scattered strong convection is occurring \nfrom 00N-09N east of 94W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong\nconvection is noted from 03N-07N between 105W-121W and from \n04S-02N between 129W-138W..\n...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...\nPlease see the Special Features section above for information on  \nHurricane Trudy and the Remnants of Simon, as well as the Gale \nWarning issued for the Gulf of Tehuantepec.\nOutside of the areas described in the Special Features section,\nfresh N winds have begun along the coast over the Gulf of\nTehuantepec. Elsewhere, winds are moderate or weaker with seas \n5-7 ft over the Pacific waters and 2-5 ft over the Gulf of \nCalifornia.\nFor the forecast, Hurricane Trudy will move to 15.5N 103.1W Sat \nmorning, 16.9N 104.1W Sat afternoon, 18.5N 105.1W Sun morning \napproaching Cabo Corrientes, 19.7N 105.9W Sun afternoon, weaken \nto a tropical storm near 20.5N 106.6W Mon morning, and 20.9N \n107.1W Mon afternoon. Trudy will weaken to a tropical depression \nover 21.5N 108.1W Tue afternoon over the entrance to the Gulf of \nCalifornia. In addition to Trudy, a Gulf of Tehuantepec gap wind\nevent has started this afternoon. This early-season Tehuanteper \nshould reach gale-force northerlies Sat morning and likely \npersist through Tue, before gradually diminishing on Wed. Finally\nlooking ahead, an area of low pressure is forecast to form \noffshore of southern Mexico during the early to middle part of \nnext week. Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual \ndevelopment thereafter, and a tropical depression could form \nduring the latter half of next week while it moves generally \nwestward to west-northwestward over the eastern and central \nportions of the East Pacific. Formation chance is near zero \nthrough 48 hours, and medium through 7 days.\n...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, \nAND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...\nWinds are moderate or weaker over forecast waters this morning.\nSeas are 5-7 ft in SW swell. Numerous moderate and scattered \nstrong convection is occurring from 00N-09N east of 94W.\nFor the forecast, a strong early-season Tehuantepecer gap wind \nevent will cause fresh to locally strong NE winds over the W \nportion of the Guatemala and El Salvador zone Sat night and Sun. \nLarge to very large seas from mixed NW swell from the \nTehuantepecer and SW swell from the Southern Hemisphere will also\nimpact this zone from Sat night through Tue night. Large SW \nswell is impacting the equatorial zones now through Sat night. \nFinally, scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will \ncontinue to impact the offshore waters from Guatemala through \nColombia over at least the next two days.\n...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...\nA moderate pressure gradient between a 1025 mb high at 36N136W \nto lower pressure over the monsoon trough is causing only \nmoderate to locally fresh trades. South of 05N between 95W-125W is\nexperiencing seas 8-9 ft in S to SW swell.\nFor the forecast, little change in winds are expected during the\nnext few days. The large SW swell in our southern waters will \ngradually diminishing by Sun. Looking ahead, a weak cold front \nshould reach our northern border on Tue. While winds should only \nbe moderate or fresh behind the front, large NW swell will \naccompany the front through mid-week.\n", "title": "Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion", "id": "1219347021103792130", "issued": "2026-10-16T22:05:00Z", "wmo": "AXPZ20", "source": "NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center, received via the National Weather Wire Service", "page": "https://hurricane.terrapin.com/text/1219347021103792130"}