{"id": "1219339602173722626", "title": "Tropical Cyclone Discussion", "adv_date": "2026-10-16T21:00:00Z", "msg": "169\nWTPZ41 KNHC 162041\nTCDEP1\n \nHurricane Trudy Discussion Number  14\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP212026\n300 PM CST Fri Oct 16 2026\n\nAfter the last advisory was issued, the eye of Trudy disappeared and \nWFSM microwave data indicated that the central convective structure \nhad decayed. In addition, a synthetic aperture radar overpass near \n12Z showed maximum winds of around 80 kt. When an Air Force Reserve \nHurricane Hunter aircraft reached the storm between 18-19Z, it found \na central pressure near 982 mb and maximum 700-mb flight-level winds \nof 76 kt. Based on this and satellite intensity estimates, the \ninitial intensity has been reduced to 75 kt. The reasons for this \nweakening are speculative, but it one possibility is that the \nslow-moving hurricane has upwelled cold water underneath it as it \ncrossed the paths of Polo and Rachel.\n\nThe initial motion is a somewhat erratic 330/4 kt. A gradual turn \ntoward the northwest is likely during the next 12 hours or so as a \nweak low-level to mid-level ridge builds over eastern Mexico. This \nmotion should continue through about 60 hours, with the center\npassing near or possibly over the coast of west-central Mexico at \nabout the 48-hour point. After that time, a weakening Trudy should \nbe steered more by low-level flow, which should steer it generally \nwest-northwestward. The new forecast track is near or just to the \nwest of the previous track, and it lies a little to the right of \nthe center of the guidance envelope.\n\nTrudy's forecast track takes it into an area of deeper warm water, \nwhich in theory could cause the hurricane to re-intensify during \nthe next 24 h or so. However, there still may be a tongue of dry \nair wrapping around the central core, and as the cyclone gets \nclose to the coast of Mexico land interaction becomes a negative \nfactor. Some of the guidance shows a little re-intensification, \nwhile some of it shows continued weakening. This part of the \nintensity forecast will include modest intensification during the \nfirst 24 h.  After 48 h, Trudy should encounter strong shear and a \ndry air mass, and this combination should produce steady weakening. \nThe global models that keep the center offshore forecast the system \nto stop producing convection between 96-120 h, and the intensity \nforecast calls for the system to become a remnant low at that time. \nThe new intensity forecast has major reductions in intensity \ncompared to the previous forecast.\n \n \nKEY MESSAGES:\n \n1. While Trudy is no longer forecast to be a major hurricane when \nit approaches the coast of southwestern and west-central Mexico \nthis weekend, it will still bring an increasing risk of storm surge, \ndamaging winds, and flooding rain. Hurricane Warnings and Watches, \nas well as Tropical Storm Warnings and Watches, are currently in \neffect for portions of the coast, and additional watches and \nwarnings will likely be required tonight.\n \n2. Heavy rainfall associated with Trudy will impact the southwest\nMexican coast between Guerrero and Jalisco through the weekend. This\nrainfall may produce life-threatening flooding and mudslides by the\nweekend along and near the southwest Mexican coast in Michoac\u00e1n,\nColima, and Jalisco, especially in areas along steep terrain.\n \n3. Large swells are affecting portions of the coast of southwestern\nMexico and will spread northward through the weekend, causing\nlife-threatening surf and rip current conditions.\n \n \nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n \nINIT  16/2100Z 14.8N 102.5W   75 KT  85 MPH\n 12H  17/0600Z 15.5N 103.1W   75 KT  85 MPH\n 24H  17/1800Z 16.9N 104.1W   80 KT  90 MPH\n 36H  18/0600Z 18.5N 105.1W   80 KT  90 MPH\n 48H  18/1800Z 19.7N 105.9W   75 KT  85 MPH\n 60H  19/0600Z 20.5N 106.6W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 72H  19/1800Z 20.9N 107.1W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 96H  20/1800Z 21.5N 108.1W   30 KT  35 MPH\n120H  21/1800Z 22.1N 109.3W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n \n"}