{"msg": "309\nAXNT20 KNHC 161712\nTWDAT \nTropical Weather Discussion\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n1815 UTC Fri Oct 16 2026\nTropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America\nGulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South\nAmerica, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the\nEquator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite\nimagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.\nBased on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through \n1700 UTC.\n...SPECIAL FEATURES...\nGulf of America Gale Warning: A cold front is forecast to enter\nthe northwest Gulf today, and reach from southwest Florida to the\ncentral Bay of Campeche by late Sat. Fresh to strong winds and \nmoderate to rough seas will follow the front, with gales expected \nover the west-central Gulf by early Sat morning, and over the SW \nGulf by early Sat afternoon. Rough to very rough seas are expected\nwith the strongest winds. Gale conditions are forecast to persist\nover the SW Gulf through Sun. Please read the latest High Seas \nForecast issued by the National Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO \nheaders FZNT02 KNHC/HSFAT2 or at website \nhttps://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details.\n...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...\nThe monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 13N17W and extends SW\nto 09N19W. The ITCZ extends from 09N19W to 09N34W where it is\nbroken by a surface trough. The ITCZ then resumes from 06N44W to\n05N54W. Scattered moderate convection is occurring from 04N to 11N\nand E of 23W, as well as from 04N to 10N between 25W and 45W. \n...GULF OF AMERICA...\nAn upper-level trough over the south-central US and a surface \ntrough in the western Gulf are supporting numerous showers and \nthunderstorms across much of the interior Gulf. Another surface \ntrough along the Mexican coast supports scattered moderate \nconvection offshore Veracruz. Outside of convection, a cold front \nemerging off the TX coast is leading to fresh to strong N winds \noccurring over the nearshore waters between Corpus Christi and \nGalveston. Seas of 2-5 ft currently prevail across the Gulf. \nFor the forecast, a cold front moving through coastal Texas will \nenter the far northwest Gulf later this morning, reach from \nsouthwest Florida to the central Bay of Campeche by late Sat, then\nstall and dissipate from the Florida Straits to the Bay of \nCampeche through the early part of next week. Gale force winds and\nrough to very rough seas will follow the front over the west- \ncentral Gulf tonight, and the southwest Gulf by Sat morning, and \npersist through Sun. Fresh to strong winds and moderate to rough \nseas will follow the front elsewhere. Looking ahead, strong high \npressure will build over the lower Mississippi Valley in the wake \nof the front, promoting fresh to strong NE to E winds mainly over \nthe eastern half of the Gulf through Tue. \n...CARIBBEAN SEA...\nUpper-level diffluence over the NW Caribbean is supporting \nnumerous moderate to strong convection W of 80W. Otherwise, the \nseasonal pressure gradient is leading to moderate to fresh trades \nthrough the basin, with strong easterly winds offshore Colombia \nand in the Gulf of Venezuela. Moderate seas prevail across much of\nthe Caribbean, with rough seas offshore Colombia.\nFor the forecast, high pressure N of area combined with the \nColombian low will support fresh to strong NE to E winds offshore \nColombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela today, then mainly moderate \nto fresh winds will prevail through the upcoming weekend. Rough \nseas are expected offshore Colombia with the strongest winds. \nModerate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas are forecast \nelsewhere. An area of showers and thunderstorms associated with a \nsurface trough will continue to affect the NW Caribbean today. \nGusty winds and locally rough seas will be associated with this \nconvective activity. \n...ATLANTIC OCEAN...\nA cold front extends from 31N47W to 29N50W, and then is \nstationary to 25N70W. Moderate to fresh SW winds, 7-9 ft combined\nseas in NW swell, and scattered showers and thunderstorms are \nactive along the front east of 51W. To the south, a surface trough\nis analyzed along 53W from 12N to 19N, with an upper level low\nnearby supporting scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms\nalong 50W from 14N to 19N. To the northeast, a surface trough is\nanalyzed from 27N35W to 20N39W with a 1008 mb low along the trough\nnear 22N37W. These features are also driving fresh to strong SE\nwinds E of the trough to about 30W and N of 20N. Diffluence aloft\nand east of this trough supports numerous showers and \nthunderstorms from 17N to 27N between 25W and 35W. Elsewhere \nacross the Atlantic, moderate or weaker winds and seas are evident\nacross the basin.\nFor the forecast west of 55W, high pressure off the Carolinas \nwill shift eastward today, ahead of a strong cold front that will \nmove off the coast of northeast Florida by early Sat morning. The \nfront will reach from 31N72W to the Straits of Florida by early \nSun morning, then stall and dissipate through early next week. \nStrong to near-gale force winds and rough to very rough seas will \nfollow the front. \n", "title": "Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion", "id": "1219298446526251010", "issued": "2026-10-16T18:15:00Z", "wmo": "AXNT20", "source": "NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center, received via the National Weather Wire Service", "page": "https://hurricane.terrapin.com/text/1219298446526251010"}