{"msg": "574\nAXPZ20 KNHC 161602\nTWDEP \nTropical Weather Discussion\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n1605 UTC Fri Oct 16 2026\nTropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from\n03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and\nfrom the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following\ninformation is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,\nradar, and meteorological analysis.\nBased on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through\n1530 UTC.\n...SPECIAL FEATURES...\nHurricane Trudy is centered near 14.6N 102.5W at 16/1500 UTC,\nmoving north-northwest at 4 kt. Estimated minimum central\npressure is 956 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 105 kt with\ngusts to 130 kt. Max seas are around 28 ft. Numerous moderate to\nscattered strong conveciton is occurring from 22N-27N between\n98W-104W. A north-northwestward to northwestward motion at a \nslightly faster forward speed is forecast during the next few \ndays. On the forecast track, the center of Trudy will approach \nthe coast of southwestern and west-central Mexico on Saturday and\npass near the coast Saturday night into Sunday. Strengthening is\nexpected through Saturday, and Trudy is forecast to remain a \nmajor hurricane when it makes its closest approach to Mexico. \nWeakening is predicted later this weekend and into early next \nweek. Swells generated by Trudy are affecting portions of the coast\nof southwestern Mexico and will spread northward toward west-central\nMexico during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause\nlife-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult\nproducts from your local weather office.\n \nTropical Storm Simon is centered near 20.6N 109.5W at 16/1500\nUTC, moving northwest at 8 kt. Estimated minimum central\npressure is 1002 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with\ngusts to 45 kt. Peak seas are near 8 ft. Scattered moderate and\nisolated strong convection is occurring from 20N-22N between\n108W-112W. This general motion is expected to prevail through \nthe weekend. Weakening is expected, and Simon is forecast to become a \npost-tropical remnant low on Saturday. Swells generated by Simon\ncould affect portions of the coast of west-central Mexico and \nBaja California Sur during the next day or so. These swells are \nlikely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.\nPlease consult products from your local weather office.\nPlease read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National\nHurricane Center at website - \nhttps://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest \nNHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov \nfor more details on Simon and Trudy.\nGale Warning: A Gulf of Tehuantepec gap wind event is starting \ntoday. This early-season Tehuanteper should reach gale-force \nnortherlies tonight and likely persist through Mon, before \ngradually diminishing on Tue. Peak winds should be around 40 kt\nfrom Sat afternoon through Sun night with largest seas near 15\nft.\n...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...\nThe monsoon trough extends from coastal Costa Rica near 10N86W to\n10N95W. It begins again near 10N100W and extends to 00N130W. The\nITCZ begins at 00N130W and goes to beyond 01N140W. Numerous\nmoderate and scattered strong convection is occurring from\n00N-09N east of 89W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong\nconvection is noted from 03N-08N between 100W-119W and from\n02N-02N between 130W-138W..\n...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...\nPlease see the Special Features section above for information on  \nHurricane Trudy and Tropical Storm Simon. Also, on the Gale \nWarning issued for the Gulf of Tehuantepec for this weekend.\nOutside of the areas described in the Special Features section,\nfresh to near gale NW winds are occurring over the N Gulf of \nCalifornia. Elsewhere, winds are moderate or weaker with seas 5-7\nft over the Pacific waters and 3-5 ft over the Gulf of\nCalifornia.\nFor the forecast, Hurricane Trudy will move to 15.3N 102.9W this\nevening, 16.6N 103.8W Sat morning, 18.1N 104.8W Sat evening, \n19.6N 105.8W Sun morning very close to Cabo Corrientes, 20.7N \n106.4W Sun evening, and 21.2N 107.1W Mon morning. Trudy will \nweaken to a tropical storm over 21.7N 108.1W early Tue over the \nentrance to the Gulf of California. Meanwhile, Tropical Storm \nSimon will weaken to a tropical depression near 21.6N 110.9W \nthis evening south of Cabo San Lucas, become a remnant low and \nmove to 22.7N 112.7W Sat morning, 24.0N 114.6W Sat evening, and \ndissipate Sun morning. In addition to the hurricane and tropical \nstorm, a Gulf of Tehuantepec gap wind event is starting today. \nThis early-season Tehuanteper should reach gale-force northerlies\ntonight and likely persist through Mon, before gradually \ndiminishing on Tue. Finally looking ahead, an area of low \npressure is forecast to form offshore of southern Mexico during \nthe early to middle part of next week. Environmental conditions \nappear conducive for gradual development thereafter, and a \ntropical depression could form during the latter half of next \nweek while it moves generally westward to west- northwestward \nover the eastern and central portions of the East Pacific. \nFormation chance through 48 hours is low, while formation chance \nthrough 7 days is medium.\n...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, \nAND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...\nWinds are moderate or weaker over forecast waters this morning.\nSeas are 5-7 ft in SW swell. Numerous moderate and scattered \nstrong convection is occurring from 00N-09N east of 89W. \nFor the forecast, a strong early-season Tehuantepecer gap wind \nevent will cause fresh to locally strong NE winds over the W \nportion of the Guatemala and El Salvador zone Sat night and Sun. \nLarge to very large seas from mixed NW swell from the \nTehuantepecer and SW swell from the Southern Hemisphere will also\nimpact this zone from Sat night through early next week. Large \nSW swell is impacting the equatorial zones now through Sun. \nFinally, scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will \ncontinue to impact the offshore waters from Guatemala through \nColombia over at least the next two days.\n...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...\nA moderate pressure gradient between a 1027 mb high at 37N133W to\nlower pressure over the monsoon trough/ITCZ is causing only\nmoderate to locally fresh trades. Southwest of a line from 02S95W\nto 20N140W is experiencing seas 8-10 ft in S to SW swell.\nFor the forecast, little change in winds are expected during the\nnext several days. The large SW swell in our southern waters will\ngradually diminishing through early next week. A large NW swell\nwill reach our NW corner at 30N140W tonight and reach to 25N125W\nby Mon while gradually diminishing.\n", "title": "Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion", "id": "1219284715594088450", "issued": "2026-10-16T16:05:00Z", "wmo": "AXPZ20", "source": "NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center, received via the National Weather Wire Service", "page": "https://hurricane.terrapin.com/text/1219284715594088450"}