{"id": "1219271859241713666", "title": "Tropical Cyclone Discussion", "adv_date": "2026-10-16T15:00:00Z", "msg": "933\nWTPZ45 KNHC 161457\nTCDEP5\n \nTropical Storm Simon Discussion Number  37\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP202026\n800 AM MST Fri Oct 16 2026\n \nSouthwesterly vertical wind shear and dry mid-level air are taking a \ntoll on Simon this morning. An earlier AMSR-3 microwave pass \nindicated that the mid-level center was displaced to the northeast \nof the low-level center, a trend also reflected in bursts of deep \nconvection to the north and east of the center over the past \nseveral hours. The pass also suggested that the low-level center \nwas slightly farther north than previously estimated, and the \ninitial position was adjusted accordingly. The latest TAFB Dvorak \nintensity estimate was 2.0/30 kt. However, convective organization \nhas changed little, so the intensity is maintained at 35 kt for this \nadvisory. \n\nSimon is moving northwestward at 315/8 kt. Given the storm's shallow \nnature, its motion is being steered by the low- and mid-level flow, \ncharacterized by troughing to the west and a mid-level ridge to the \nnortheast. This general motion is expected to continue over the next \n24-36 h, bringing Simon parallel to the coast of Baja California \nSur. Following the northward adjustment of the initial position, the \nlatest NHC track forecast has been shifted slightly to the right of \nthe previous forecast and lies near the corrected consensus (HCCA) \ntrack. \n\nDespite moving over very warm waters (28-30 C), significant \nsouthwesterly wind shear and increasingly dry mid-level air are \nexpected to support continued weakening. In fact, simulated \nsatellite imagery from the ECMWF and GFS suggest that Simon may \nstruggle to maintain organized deep convection by late tonight. The \nofficial forecast calls for Simon to become a post-tropical remnant \nlow within 24 h, though this transition may occur sooner. \nDissipation is expected by 48 h. \n \n \nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n \nINIT  16/1500Z 20.6N 109.5W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 12H  17/0000Z 21.6N 110.9W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 24H  17/1200Z 22.7N 112.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 36H  18/0000Z 24.0N 114.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 48H  18/1200Z...DISSIPATED\n \n"}