{"id": "1219271663116156930", "title": "Tropical Cyclone Discussion", "adv_date": "2026-10-16T15:00:00Z", "msg": "916\nWTPZ41 KNHC 161456\nTCDEP1\n \nHurricane Trudy Discussion Number  13\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP212026\n900 AM CST Fri Oct 16 2026\n\nSatellite imagery shows that Trudy's intensification has again \npaused, with the eye becoming less distinct and the convective cloud \ntops in the eyewall becoming warmer. An earlier GPM microwave \noverpass suggested that the eyewall has opened up on the south side, \npossibly due to a tongue of dry air wrapping into that part of the \nhurricane.  The various satellite intensity estimates have changed \nlittle since the last advisory, so the initial intensity is held at \n105 kt.  An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled \nto investigate Trudy later today.\n\nThe initial motion is a somewhat erratic 335/4 kt, as Trudy has \nfollowed its previous westward jog with a northward jog. A gradual \nturn toward the northwest is likely during the next 24 hours as a \nweak low-level to mid-level ridge builds over eastern Mexico. This \nmotion should continue through about 72 hours, with the center \npassing near or over the coast of west-central Mexico at about the \n48 hour point. After that time, a weakening Trudy should be steered \nmore by low-level flow. However, the guidance has some spread as to \nwhich direction that should be. Some of the guidance shows a \nwest-northwest or west motion, while some models steer the cyclone \nmore northward due to the influence of a large deep-layer trough \nover the northeastern Pacific. This part of the forecast track \nsplits the difference by showing a slow west-northwestward motion. \nOverall, the new forecast track is similar to the previous track \nthrough 60 hours, and then is a little to the north of the previous \ntrack.\n\nWhile the environment that Trudy is in seems to be conducive for \nstrengthening, the intensification has sputtered twice during the \npast day or so. And in an interesting twist, the regional hurricane \nmodels do not forecast any additional strengthening before the \nhurricane reaches a less favorable environment. Other intensity \nguidance suggest some intensification could still occur, and based \non a blend of this and the previous forecast the new intensity \nforecast shows some strengthening during the next 24 hours. Trudy is \nstill expected to be a major hurricane as it approaches the coast of \nMexico. Later in the forecast period, Trudy is expected have land \ninteraction, move into a drier air mass, and encounter increasing \nsouthwesterly shear. These factors should cause steady to rapid \nweakening, and the new forecast follows the previous forecast in \nshowing the system as a post-tropical low by 120 h.\n \n \nKEY MESSAGES:\n \n1. Trudy is forecast to be a major hurricane when it approaches the\ncoast of southwestern and west-central Mexico this weekend, bringing\nan increasing risk of storm surge, damaging winds, and flooding\nrain. Hurricane Warnings and Watches, as well as Tropical Storm \nWarnings and Watches, are currently in effect for portions of the \ncoast, and additional watches and warnings will likely be required \nlater today or tonight.\n \n2. Heavy rainfall associated with Trudy will impact the southwest \nMexican coast between Guerrero and Jalisco through the weekend. This \nrainfall may produce life-threatening flooding and mudslides by the \nweekend along and near the southwest Mexican coast in Michoac\u00e1n, \nColima, and Jalisco, especially in areas along steep terrain.\n \n3. Large swells are affecting portions of the coast of southwestern\nMexico and will spread northward through the weekend, causing\nlife-threatening surf and rip current conditions.\n \n \nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n \nINIT  16/1500Z 14.6N 102.5W  105 KT 120 MPH\n 12H  17/0000Z 15.3N 102.9W  115 KT 130 MPH\n 24H  17/1200Z 16.6N 103.8W  120 KT 140 MPH\n 36H  18/0000Z 18.1N 104.8W  115 KT 130 MPH\n 48H  18/1200Z 19.6N 105.8W  100 KT 115 MPH\n 60H  19/0000Z 20.7N 106.4W   85 KT 100 MPH\n 72H  19/1200Z 21.2N 107.1W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 96H  20/1200Z 21.7N 108.1W   45 KT  50 MPH\n120H  21/1200Z 22.2N 109.1W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n \n"}