{"msg": "617\nAXPZ20 KNHC 161008\nTWDEP \nTropical Weather Discussion\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n1005 UTC Fri Oct 16 2026\nTropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from\n03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and\nfrom the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following\ninformation is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,\nradar, and meteorological analysis.\nBased on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through\n0955 UTC.\n...SPECIAL FEATURES...\nHurricane Trudy is centered near 14.2N 102.4W at 16/0900 UTC,\nmoving northwest at 5 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is\n956 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 105 kt with gusts to 130\nkt. Peak seas are estimated around 30 ft. A partial altimeter \nsatellite pass captured seas near 26 ft. Numerous moderate to \nscattered strong convection is evident from 12N to 17N and \nbetween 100W and 105W. A north- northwestward to northwestward \nmotion at a slightly faster forward speed is forecast during the \nnext few days. On the forecast track, the center of Trudy will \napproach the coast of southwestern and west- central Mexico on \nSaturday and pass near the coast Saturday night into Sunday.\nAdditional strengthening is expected through Saturday, and Trudy\nis forecast to remain a major hurricane when it makes its \nclosest approach to Mexico. Some weakening is predicted later \nthis weekend and into early next week. Swells generated by Trudy \nare affecting portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico and \nwill spread northward toward west-central Mexico during the next \nfew days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf \nand rip current conditions. Please consult products from your \nlocal weather office.\nTropical Storm Simon is centered near 20.0N 108.8W at 16/0900\nUTC, moving northwest at 8 kt. Estimated minimum central\npressure is 1002 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with\ngusts to 45 kt. Peak seas are around 9 ft. Scattered moderate \nto isolated strong convection is noted from 20N to 22N and \nbetween 107W and 111W. A general NW motion is expected to \nprevail through the weekend. Continued weakening is expected, and\nSimon is forecast to become a post- tropical remnant low in a \nday or so. Swells generated by Simon could affect portions of the\ncoast of west-central Mexico and Baja California Sur during the \nnext day or so. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening\nsurf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from \nyour local weather office.\nPlease read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National\nHurricane Center at website - \nhttps://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest \nNHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov \nfor more details on Simon and Trudy.\nGale Warning: A cold front will reach the Gulf of America later\ntoday and continue eastward over the next couple of days. A\nstrong high pressure system will follow the front. The pressure\ngradient between this ridge and lower pressures in the deep\ntropics will result in fresh to strong northerly winds developing\nin the Gulf of Tehuantepec tonight. Winds will increase to gale-\nforce Sat and continue until late Mon or early Tue. Seas will \nbuild to very rough during this period, peaking around 15 ft late\nSun into Mon. Fresh to strong winds and rough seas will prevail \nafterwards until at least late next week.\n...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...\nThe monsoon trough extends from 08N78W to 09N84W and to 10N97W, \nthen resumes from near 08N102W to 02N119W. The ITCZ extends from\n02N119W to beyond 01N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong\nconvection is observed from 01N to 14N and east of 93W. Scattered\nmoderate convection is present from 04N to 11N and between 97W\nand 115W.\n...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...\nPlease see the Special Features section above for information on  \nHurricane Trudy and Tropical Storm Simon. Also, on the Gale \nWarning issued for the Gulf of Tehuantepec for this weekend.\nOutside of the areas described in the Special Features section, a\nrecent scatterometer satellite pass captured fresh to strong NW\nwinds in the central and northern Gulf of California. This is due\nto a moderate pressure gradient between a strong ridge located\nnorth of the area and lower pressures in NW Mexico. The\nsatellite-derived wind data also showed moderate to fresh\nnortherly winds in the offshore waters of Baja California Norte,\nespecially around Punta Eugenia. Seas in the areas described are\n3-6 ft. Elsewhere, mainly gentle winds and moderate seas \nprevail. \nFor the forecast, Hurricane Trudy will move to 14.8N 102.7W \nthis afternoon, 15.9N 103.4W Sat morning, 17.4N 104.4W Sat \nafternoon, 19.0N 105.5W Sun morning, 20.3N 106.3W Sun afternoon, \nand 21.0N 107.0W Mon morning. Trudy will weaken to a tropical \nstorm over 21.4N 108.0W early Tue. Meanwhile, Tropical Storm\nSimon will weaken to a tropical depression near 20.7N 109.7W \nthis afternoon, become a remnant low and move to 21.8N 111.7W Sat\nmorning, 23.1N 113.6W Sat afternoon, and dissipate Sun morning. \nLooking ahead, a tight pressure gradient in the Gulf of Tehuantepec\nwill support fresh to strong N winds and rough seas tonight. \nWinds will reach gale force and seas build to very rough starting\nSat and continuing through late Mon or early Tue. Fresh to \nstrong winds and rough seas will prevail afterwards until at least\nlate next week. An area of low pressure is forecast to form \noffshore of southern Mexico during the early to middle part of \nnext week. Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual \ndevelopment thereafter, and a tropical depression could form \nduring the latter half of next week while it moves generally \nwestward to west-northwestward over the eastern and central \nportions of the East Pacific. The chance of formation over the \nnext 7 days is medium.\n...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, \nAND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...\nA recent scatterometer satellite pass indicate that moderate to \nlocally strong southerly winds are occurring in the waters \nbetween the Galapagos Islands and Ecuador. A cross-equatorial\nsoutherly swell is producing seas of 6-8 ft in the area\ndescribed. Elsewhere, a weak pressure gradient supports moderate\nor weaker winds and moderate seas.\nFor the forecast, moderate to locally fresh southerly winds and\nrough seas will continue between Ecuador and the Galapagos\nIslands during the next several days. Gap winds will reach gale-\nforce strength in the Gulf of Tehuantepec this weekend due to a \ntight pressure gradient. Winds will reach strong force and seas \nbuild to rough in the far offshore waters of Guatemala starting \nSat night. Winds will diminish to moderate to fresh on Sun, but \nrough to very rough seas will continue until at least midweek.\n...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...\nA 1026 mb high pressure system near 35N133W extends southward \ninto the tropical eastern Pacific waters, sustaining moderate to \nlocally fresh winds and rough seas north of 10N and west of 115W.\nModerate to locally fresh southerly winds and rough seas are \nfound south of the monsoon trough and ITCZ. Elsewhere, moderate \nor weaker winds and moderate to locally rough seas prevail.\nFor the forecast, a cross-equatorial swell will support rough\nseas south of 10N during the next several days. Mainly moderate \nwinds and rough seas will persist over the central and western \nwaters during the next few days. Looking ahead, NW swell will \nreach the NW waters tonight and spread southeastward over the \nnorthern waters during the weekend. Then, a strong cold front\nwill bring fresh northerly winds and rough to very rough seas to\nthe northern waters by midweek.\n", "title": "Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion", "id": "1219215056961601538", "issued": "2026-10-16T10:05:00Z", "wmo": "AXPZ20", "source": "NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center, received via the National Weather Wire Service", "page": "https://hurricane.terrapin.com/text/1219215056961601538"}