{"msg": "240\nAXNT20 KNHC 160955\nTWDAT \nTropical Weather Discussion\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n1215 UTC Fri Oct 16 2026\nTropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America\nGulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South\nAmerica, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the\nEquator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite\nimagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.\nBased on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through \n0900 UTC.\n...SPECIAL FEATURES...\nGulf of America Gale Warning: A cold front is forecast to enter\nthe northwest Gulf today, and reach from southwest Florida to the\ncentral Bay of Campeche by late Sat. Fresh to strong winds and \nmoderate to rough seas will follow the front, with gales expected \nover the west-central Gulf by early Sat morning, and over the SW \nGulf by early Sat afternoon. Rough to very rough seas are expected\nwith the strongest winds. Gale conditions are forecast to persist\nover the SW Gulf through Sun. Please read the latest High Seas \nForecast issued by the National Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO \nheaders FZNT02 KNHC/HSFAT2 or at website \nhttps://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details.\n...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...\nThe monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 11N15W and extends SW\nto 08N25W. The ITCZ extends from 08N25W to 1010 mb low pressure\nnear 6.5N37W, then continues to 05N52W. Scattered showers and\nthunderstorms are active from 06N to 12N between 13W and 20W,\nfrom 04N to 07N between 25W and 30W, and from 05N to 09N between\n35W and 40W.\n...GULF OF AMERICA...\nAn upper-level short-wave trough is supporting scattered showers\nand thunderstorms from the Yucatan Channel to the coast of Texas.\nScattered showers and thunderstorms are active along a surface\ntrough off the coast of Veracruz. 1018 mb high pressure over\nAlabama is supporting gentle to moderate E to SE winds and 3 to 5\nft seas across the basin.\nFor the forecast, a cold front moving through coastal Texas will \nenter the far northwest Gulf today, reach from southwest Florida \nto the central Bay of Campeche by late Sat, then stall and \ndissipate from the Florida Straits to the Bay of Campeche through \nthe early part of next week. Gale force winds and rough to very \nrough seas will follow the front over the west- central Gulf by \nearly Sat and the southwest Gulf by Sat evening, and persist \nthrough Sun. Fresh to strong winds and moderate to rough seas will\nfollow the front elsewhere. Looking ahead, strong high pressure \nwill build over the lower Mississippi Valley in the wake of the \nfront, promoting fresh to strong NE to E winds mainly over the \neastern half of the Gulf through Tue. \n...CARIBBEAN SEA...\nUpper-level diffluence over Yucatan and the NW Caribbean is \nsupporting scattered moderate convection W of 80W. Otherwise, the\nseasonal pressure gradient is leading to moderate to fresh trades\nthrough the basin, with some strong easterly winds offshore \nColombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela. Moderate seas dominate, \nhighest in the south-central basin, and rough offshore Colombia.\nFor the forecast, high pressure N of area combined with the \nColombian low will support fresh to strong NE to E winds offshore \nColombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela today, then mainly moderate \nto fresh winds will prevail through the upcoming weekend. Rough \nseas are expected offshore Colombia with the strongest winds. \nModerate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas are forecast \nelsewhere. An area of showers and thunderstorms associated with a \nsurface trough will continue to affect the NW Caribbean today. \nGusty winds and locally rough seas will be associated with this \nconvective activity. \n...ATLANTIC OCEAN...\nA cold front extends from 31N45W to 25N57W, and then is stationary to\n25N70W. Fresh SW winds, 8-9 ft combined seas in NW swell, and \nscattered showers and thunderstorms are active along the front \neast of 50W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are active near a\nsurface trough along 52W from 13N to 20N, and within 240 nm east \nof a 1008 mb low pressure area near 23N37W. Moderate to fresh\nwinds and 5-7 ft seas are noted within 90 nm of the low pressure.\nElsewhere, generally moderate winds and seas are evident across\nthe basin. \nFor the forecast west of 55W, high pressure off the Carolinas \nwill shift eastward today, ahead of a strong cold front that will \nmove off the coast of northeast Florida by early Sat. The front \nwill reach from 31N74W to Florida Straits by early Sun, then stall\nand dissipate through early next week. Strong to near- gale force\nwinds and rough to very rough seas will follow the front, with \ngale force winds possible north of 28N and west of 75W Sun night.\n", "title": "Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion", "id": "1219212536541085698", "issued": "2026-10-16T12:15:00Z", "wmo": "AXNT20", "source": "NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center, received via the National Weather Wire Service", "page": "https://hurricane.terrapin.com/text/1219212536541085698"}