{"id": "1219200090341867522", "title": "Tropical Cyclone Discussion", "adv_date": "2026-10-16T09:00:00Z", "msg": "589\nWTPZ41 KNHC 160852\nTCDEP1\n \nHurricane Trudy Discussion Number  12\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP212026\n300 AM CST Fri Oct 16 2026\n \nTrudy has rapidly strengthened into a major hurricane overnight. Its\n15-n-mi wide eye, which is evident in proxy-visible and infrared\nsatellite imagery, is surrounded by a solid ring of very deep\nconvection with cloud tops colder than -70 deg C. A prominent outer\nband wraps around the northwestern portion of the circulation. The\ninitial intensity is set at 105 kt for this advisory, trending\ncloser to recent Dvorak estimates in lieu of the objective estimates\nthat appear too low given Trudy's impressive satellite structure.\n \nThe hurricane unexpectedly moved westward for several hours tonight\nand now appears to be drifting northward, but using a longer-term\nestimate yields a slow northwestward motion (325/5 kt). The track\nguidance is clustered on Trudy moving north-northwestward today\nbefore turning back toward the northwest tonight and into the\nweekend in response to a building ridge over Mexico. This will bring\nthe center of Trudy very near the coast of southwestern and\nwest-central Mexico in 48-60 h. The NHC track forecast shifted\nwestward this cycle in response to the westward deviation described\nabove, and most models including the skillful Google DeepMind keep\nthe center of Trudy offshore. However, note that small changes to a\ntrack forecast that is parallel to the coast could result in large\ndifferences regarding the severity of potential impacts. Users\nshould pay close attention to the watches and warnings in place and\ncontinue monitoring forecast updates.\n \nAdditional strengthening is expected during the next day or so while\nTrudy moves over very warm SSTs in a moist, low shear environment.\nThe near-term NHC intensity forecast lies on the high end of the\nguidance (near HCCA) given the storm's current structure and these\nfavorable conditions. Southwesterly shear associated with a cutoff\nlow near northern Baja California is forecast to increase later this\nweekend as Trudy moves northward, which could induce some weakening.\nPotential land interaction further complicates the forecast, but\nTrudy is predicted to remain offshore at this time and be a major\nhurricane when it makes its closest approach to Mexico. Thereafter,\nmore significant weakening is forecast as the system encounters\neven stronger shear and a drier mid-level environment.\n \n \nKEY MESSAGES:\n \n1. Trudy is forecast to be a major hurricane when it approaches the\ncoast of southwestern and west-central Mexico this weekend, bringing\nan increasing risk of storm surge, damaging winds, and flooding\nrain. Hurricane Watches and Tropical Storm Warnings are currently in\neffect for portions of the coast, and additional watches and\nwarnings will likely be required today.\n \n2. Heavy rainfall associated with Trudy will impact the southwest\ncoast of Mexico between Guerrero and Jalisco through the weekend.\nThis rainfall may produce life-threatening flooding and mudslides by\nthe weekend along and near the southwest Mexican coast in Michoacan,\nColima, and Jalisco, especially in areas along steep terrain.\n \n3. Large swells are affecting portions of the coast of southwestern\nMexico and will spread northward through the weekend, causing\nlife-threatening surf and rip current conditions.\n \n \nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n \nINIT  16/0900Z 14.2N 102.4W  105 KT 120 MPH\n 12H  16/1800Z 14.8N 102.7W  120 KT 140 MPH\n 24H  17/0600Z 15.9N 103.4W  125 KT 145 MPH\n 36H  17/1800Z 17.4N 104.4W  125 KT 145 MPH\n 48H  18/0600Z 19.0N 105.5W  110 KT 125 MPH\n 60H  18/1800Z 20.3N 106.3W   85 KT 100 MPH\n 72H  19/0600Z 21.0N 107.0W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 96H  20/0600Z 21.4N 108.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\n120H  21/0600Z 21.8N 109.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\n \n"}