{"id": "1219197730362785794", "title": "Tropical Cyclone Discussion", "adv_date": "2026-10-16T09:00:00Z", "msg": "228\nWTPZ45 KNHC 160840\nTCDEP5\n \nTropical Storm Simon Discussion Number  36\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP202026\n200 AM MST Fri Oct 16 2026\n \nSimon is gradually weakening. The storm continues to lose \norganization with intermittent bursts of deeper convection north of \nthe center. A 0501 UTC Metop-C scatterometer pass showed a compact \nsystem with peak winds around 34 kt. Intensity estimates have \ndropped slightly, and the latest subjective Dvorak CI number from \nTAFB was 2.5/35 kt, but the Final T-number was 2.0/30 kt. Based on a \ncompromise of these data, the initial intensity is lowered to 35 kt.\n \nThe initial motion is estimated to be northwesterly, or 310/08 kt. \nThis general motion is forecast to continue through the weekend as \nthe system moves in between a low-level trough to its west and a \nridge to its east, bringing the weak and shallow system just west of \nthe Baja California Peninsula over the weekend. The latest microwave \nand scatterometer data required a minor adjustment to the previous \ncenter position; therefore, the updated forecast track has been \nnudged northward accordingly, roughly between the corrected \nconsensus (HCCA) and Google DeepMind (GDMI) ensemble.\n \nSimon is anticipated to gradually weaken over the next 24\u201336 h due \nto an unfavorable environment of moderate to strong southwesterly \nvertical wind shear and dry mid-level air. As a result, Simon is \nexpected to become a remnant low within 24 h and dissipate in about \n48 h.\n \n \nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n \nINIT  16/0900Z 20.0N 108.8W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 12H  16/1800Z 20.7N 109.7W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 24H  17/0600Z 21.8N 111.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 36H  17/1800Z 23.1N 113.6W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 48H  18/0600Z...DISSIPATED\n \n"}