{"msg": "354\nAXNT20 KNHC 160605\nTWDAT \nTropical Weather Discussion\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n0615 UTC Fri Oct 16 2026\nTropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America\nGulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South\nAmerica, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the\nEquator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite\nimagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.\nBased on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through \n0550 UTC.\n...SPECIAL FEATURES...\nGulf of America Gale Warning: A cold front is forecast to enter\nthe northwest Gulf on Fri, and reach from southwest Florida to \nthe central Bay of Campeche by late Sat. Fresh to strong winds and\nmoderate to rough seas will follow the front, with gales expected\nover the west-central Gulf by early Sat morning, and over the SW \nGulf by early Sat afternoon. Rough to very rough seas are expected\nwith the strongest winds. Gale conditions are forecast to persist\nover the SW Gulf through Sun. Please read the latest High Seas \nForecast issued by the National Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO \nheaders FZNT02 KNHC/HSFAT2 or at website \nhttps://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details.\n...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...\nThe monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 13N16W and extends SW\nto 10N22W where the ITCZ begins and then continues to 08N27W. The\nITCZ then resumes west of a low near 04N39W to 03N51W. Scattered\nmoderate convection is noted from 04N to 11N between 09W and 33W.\nA 1012 mb low is located near 06N36W and is generating scattered\nmoderate to strong convection from 04N to 11N between 34W and 43W. \n...GULF OF AMERICA...\nAn upper-level short-wave trough is supporting scattered showers \nover the NW Gulf while a surface trough off Veracruz support \nsimilar convective activity over the western half of the Bay of \nCampeche. Upper-level diffluence also support scattered showers in\nthe SE Gulf and Yucatan Channel. Otherwise, modest subtropical \nridging from high pressure NE of the region is leading to mainly \nmoderate or weaker easterly winds through the basin, with slight \nto moderate seas. \nFor the forecast, a ridge will dominate the Gulf region into Fri \nproducing a gentle to moderate E to SE flow and slight to moderate\nseas. A cold front is forecast to enter the northwest Gulf on \nFri, and reach from southwest Florida to the central Bay of \nCampeche by late Sat. Fresh to strong winds and moderate to rough \nseas will follow the front, with gales expected over the west- \ncentral Gulf by early Sat morning, and over the SW Gulf by late \nSat morning. Rough to very rough seas are expected with the \nstrongest winds. Gale conditions are forecast to persist over the \nSW Gulf through Sun. Strong high pressure will follow the front \npromoting fresh to strong NE to E winds mainly over the eastern \nhalf of the Gulf through Tue. \n...CARIBBEAN SEA...\nUpper-level diffluence over Yucatan and the NW Caribbean is \nsupporting scattered moderate convection W of 80W. Otherwise, the\nseasonal pressure gradient is leading to moderate to fresh trades\nthrough the basin, with some strong easterly winds offshore \nColombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela. Moderate seas dominate, \nhighest in the south-central basin, and rough offshore Colombia.\nFor the forecast, high pressure N of area combined with the \nColombian low will support fresh to strong NE to E winds offshore \nColombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela tonight and Fri, then mainly\nmoderate to fresh winds will prevail through the upcoming \nweekend. Rough seas are expected offshore Colombia with the \nstrongest winds. Moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate \nseas are forecast elsewhere. An area of showers and thunderstorms \nassociated with a surface trough will continue to affect the NW \nCaribbean tonight and Fri. Gusty winds and locally rough seas will\nbe associated with this convective activity. \n...ATLANTIC OCEAN...\nA cold front extends from 31N47W to 25N61W, which is generating\nscattered showers ahead of it to 44W. A 1012 mb low pressure \ncentered near 23N36W is generating scattered moderate convection \nfrom 19N to 26N between 30W and 36W, where fresh E winds and \nlocally rough seas are also present. Elsewhere, a mainly weak \npressure gradient is leading to moderate or weaker winds and \nmainly moderate seas. \nFor the forecast west of 55W, a ridge will continue to dominate \nthe forecast waters through Fri. A strong cold front will move \ninto the waters off northeast Florida by late Fri night into early\nSat morning, and reach from near Bermuda to South Florida by late\nSat. Strong to near-gale force winds and rough to very rough seas\nwill follow the front with gale conditions possible in the \nvicinity of 31N70W by Sun night. \n", "title": "Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion", "id": "1219167344264839170", "issued": "2026-10-16T06:15:00Z", "wmo": "AXNT20", "source": "NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center, received via the National Weather Wire Service", "page": "https://hurricane.terrapin.com/text/1219167344264839170"}