{"msg": "256\nAXPZ20 KNHC 160358\nTWDEP \nTropical Weather Discussion\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n0405 UTC Fri Oct 16 2026\nTropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from\n03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and\nfrom the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following\ninformation is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,\nradar, and meteorological analysis.\nBased on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through\n0335 UTC.\n...SPECIAL FEATURES...\nHurricane Trudy is centered near 14.3N 102.1W at 16/0300 UTC, \nmoving north-northwest at 6 kt. Estimated minimum central \npressure is 971 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 90 kt with \ngusts to 110 kt. Peak seas are estimated at 28 ft. Numerous\nmoderate to scattered strong convection is evident from 11N to\n17N and between 98W and 104W. A NNW motion is expected to \ncontinue through Friday, followed by a turn toward the northwest \nFriday night or Saturday. On the forecast track, the center of \nTrudy will approach the coast of southwestern and west- central \nMexico on Saturday. Rapid intensification is forecast, and Trudy \nis expected to become a major hurricane on Friday. Swells \ngenerated by Trudy will affect portions of the coast of \nsouthwestern and west-central Mexico during the next few days. \nThese swells are likely to cause life- threatening surf and rip \ncurrent conditions. Please consult products from your local \nweather office.\nTropical Storm Simon is centered near 19.5N 108.5W at 16/0300\nUTC, moving northwest at 2 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure\nis 1002 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 40 kt with gusts to \n50 kt. Peak seas are around 10 ft. Scattered moderate convection \nis noted from 19N to 22N and between 107W and 110W. A faster \nnorthwestward motion is forecast to begin by Friday and continue \nthrough the weekend. Continued weakening is expected, and Simon \nis forecast to become a post-tropical remnant low in a day or so.\nSwells generated by Simon could affect portions of the coast of \nwest-central Mexico and Baja California Sur during the next day \nor so. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and\nrip current conditions. Please consult products from your local \nweather office.\nPlease read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National\nHurricane Center at website - \nhttps://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest \nNHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov \nfor more details on Simon and Trudy.\nGale Warning: A tight pressure gradient in the Gulf of Tehuantepec\nwill result in strong force northerly winds and rough seas \ndeveloping Fri night. Winds will increase to gale-force Sat and \ncontinue until Mon morning. Seas will build to very rough during\nthis period. Fresh to strong winds and rough seas will prevail \nafterwards until at least late next week.\n...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...\nThe monsoon trough extends from 08N78W to 09N84W and to 10N97W, \nthen resumes from near 11N103W to 05N118W. The ITCZ extends from\n05N118W to 02N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection\nis observed from 02N to 15N and between 87W and 92W.\n...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...\nPlease see the Special Features section above for information on  \nHurricane Trudy and weakening Tropical Storm Simon. Also, on the\nGale Warning issued for the Gulf of Tehuantepec for this weekend.\nOutside of the areas described in the Special Features section, a\nmoderate pressure gradient between a strong ridge northwest of\nthe area and lower pressures over NW Mexico support fresh to\nstrong NW winds and moderate seas in the northern and central\nGulf of California. Moderate to locally fresh N-NW winds and\nmoderate seas are also occurring in the offshore waters of Baja\nCalifornia Norte. Elsewhere, mainly gentle winds and moderate \nseas prevail. \nFor the forecast, Trudy will move to 15.0N 102.3W Fri morning, \n15.9N 102.8W Fri evening, 17.1N 103.7W Sat morning, 18.4N 104.8W \nSat evening, 19.7N 105.7W Sun morning, and 20.7N 106.4W Sun \nevening. Trudy will weaken to a tropical storm over 21.0N 107.6W \nlate Mon. Meanwhile, Simon will move to 20.1N 109.1W Fri \nmorning, weaken to a tropical depression near 21.2N 110.7W Fri \nevening, become a remnant low and move to 22.1N 112.4W Sat \nmorning, 23.2N 114.0W Sat evening, and dissipate Sun morning.\nLooking ahead, gap winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec will reach \ngale force this weekend has high pressure builds southward \nthrough Mexico in the wake of a cold front. An area of low \npressure is forecast to form offshore of southern Mexico during \nthe early to middle part of next week. Environmental conditions \nappear conducive for gradual development thereafter, and a \ntropical depression could form during the second half of next \nweek while the system moves generally westward to west-\nnorthwestward over the east to central portion of the East \nPacific. The chance of formation over the next 7 days is medium.\n...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, \nAND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...\nModerate to fresh southerly winds and seas of 6-8 ft are\noccurring in the offshore waters between the Galapagos Islands\nand Ecuador. Elsewhere, a weak pressure gradient allows for light\nto gentle winds and moderate seas.\nFor the forecast, moderate to locally fresh southerly winds and\nrough seas will continue between Ecuador and the Galapagos\nIslands during the next few days. Gap winds will reach gale-force\nstrength in the Gulf of Tehuantepec this weekend due to a tight\npressure gradient. Winds will reach strong force and seas build\nto rough in the far offshore waters of Guatemala starting Sat\nnight. Winds will diminish to moderate to fresh on Sun, but rough\nseas will continue until Tue.\n...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...\nA 1024 mb high pressure system near 40N130W extends southward\ninto the tropical eastern Pacific waters, sustaining moderate to\nlocally fresh winds and rough seas north of 10N and west of 115W.\nModerate to locally fresh southerly winds and rough seas are\nfound south of the monsoon trough and ITCZ. Elsewhere, moderate\nor weaker winds and moderate seas prevail.\nFor the forecast, large SW swell moving into the regional waters\nwill raise seas to 8 ft and greater to S of 10N over the next \ncouple of days. Mainly moderate winds and rough seas will persist\nover the central and western waters during the next several days.\nLooking ahead, NW swell will reach the NW waters Fri night and\nspread southeastward over the northern waters during the weekend. \n", "title": "Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion", "id": "1219142333639327746", "issued": "2026-10-16T04:05:00Z", "wmo": "AXPZ20", "source": "NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center, received via the National Weather Wire Service", "page": "https://hurricane.terrapin.com/text/1219142333639327746"}