{"id": "1219126930559369218", "title": "Tropical Cyclone Discussion", "adv_date": "2026-10-16T03:00:00Z", "msg": "381\nWTPZ45 KNHC 160240\nTCDEP5\n \nTropical Storm Simon Discussion Number  35\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP202026\n800 PM MST Thu Oct 15 2026\n \nSimon is gradually weakening. The compact storm is producing a \nlimited area of convection that has been losing organization over \nthe past several hours. The initial intensity is lowered to 40 kt, \nwhich is based on a blend of the latest satellite estimates and in \ngeneral agreement with the earlier ASCAT pass. Simon remains tiny, \nwith its associated tropical-storm-force winds only extending up to \n40 n mi from the center.\n \nThe storm continues to meander in weak steering currents. However, \nthe models have finally come into fair agreement that a general \nnorthwestward motion should begin later tonight or tomorrow, and \ncontinue through the weekend when the system moves in the flow \nbetween a low-level trough to its west and a ridge to its east. This \nmotion should bring the weak and shallow system to the west of the \nBaja California Peninsula over the weekend.\n \nIncreasing southwesterly vertical wind shear and intrusions of dry \nair should cause Simon to continue to weaken over the next few days. \nBased on the model guidance and the hostile environmental \nconditions, Simon is now expected to become a remnant low in about \n36 hours and dissipate in two or three days.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n \nINIT  16/0300Z 19.5N 108.5W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 12H  16/1200Z 20.1N 109.1W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 24H  17/0000Z 21.2N 110.7W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 36H  17/1200Z 22.1N 112.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 48H  18/0000Z 23.2N 114.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 60H  18/1200Z...DISSIPATED\n \n"}