{"msg": "068\nAXNT20 KNHC 152225\nTWDAT \nTropical Weather Discussion\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n0015 UTC Fri Oct 16 2026\nTropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America\nGulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South\nAmerica, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the\nEquator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite\nimagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.\nBased on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through \n2200 UTC.\n...SPECIAL FEATURES...\nGulf of America Gale Warning: A cold front is forecast to enter\nthe northwest Gulf on Fri, and reach from southwest Florida to \nthe central Bay of Campeche by late Sat. Fresh to strong winds and\nmoderate to rough seas will follow the front, with gales expected\nover the west-central Gulf by early Sat morning, and over the SW \nGulf by early Sat afternoon. Rough to very rough seas are expected\nwith the strongest winds. Gale conditions are forecast to persist\nover the SW Gulf through Sun. Please read the latest High Seas \nForecast issued by the National Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO \nheaders FZNT02 KNHC/HSFAT2 or at website \nhttps://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details.\n...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...\nThe monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 12N16W and extends SW\nto 1008 mb low pressure at 06N34W to 03N38W. The ITCZ extends \nfrom 03N38W to 05N52W. Scattered moderate isolated strong \nconvection is noted from 06N to 10N between 14W and 25W.\n...GULF OF AMERICA...\nA mid- and upper-level low over the NW Caribbean extending through\nthe Yucatan Channel is inducing scattered disorganized convection\nover much of the southern basin. Some thunderstorms are\nconcentrated in the western Bay of Campeche, where a weak surface\ntrough is present. Otherwise, modest subtropical ridging from high\npressure NE of the region is leading to mainly moderate or weaker\neasterly winds through the basin, with slight to moderate seas. \nFor the forecast, a ridge will dominate the Gulf region through \nFri producing a gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow and slight to\nmoderate seas. A cold front is forecast to enter the northwest \nGulf on Fri, and reach from southwest Florida to the central Bay \nof Campeche by late Sat. Fresh to strong winds and moderate to \nrough seas will follow the front, with gales expected over the \nwest-central Gulf by early Sat morning, and over the SW Gulf by \nlate Sat morning. Rough to very rough seas are expected with the \nstrongest winds. Gale conditions are forecast to persist over the \nSW Gulf through Sun. Strong high pressure will follow the front \npromoting fresh to strong NE to E winds mainly over the eastern \nhalf of the Gulf through Tue. \n...CARIBBEAN SEA...\nA mid- and upper-level low over the NW Caribbean is supporting\nscattered moderate convection N of 17N and W of 80W. Otherwise,\nthe seasonal pressure gradient is leading to moderate to fresh\ntrades through the basin, with some strong easterly winds offshore\nColombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela. Moderate seas dominate,\nhighest in the south-central basin. \nFor the forecast, high pressure N of area combined with the \nColombian low will support fresh to strong NE to E winds offshore \nColombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela tonight and Fri, then mainly\nmoderate to fresh winds will prevail through the upcoming \nweekend. Rough seas are expected offshore Colombia with the \nstrongest winds. Moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate \nseas are forecast elsewhere. An area of showers and thunderstorms \nassociated with a surface trough will continue to affect the NW \nCaribbean tonight and Fri. Gusty winds and locally rough seas will\nbe associated with this convective activity. \n...ATLANTIC OCEAN...\nA surface trough from 31N52W to near 26N62W is inducing scattered\nmoderate to isolated strong convection within 120 nm E of its \naxis. A 1012 mb low pressure centered near 21N37W is also \ngenerated scattered moderate convection N of its center to about \n25N, between 32W and 28W, where fresh E winds and locally rough \nseas are also pressure. Elsewhere, a mainly weak pressure gradient\nis leading to moderate or weaker winds and mainly moderate seas. \nFor the forecast west of 55W, a ridge will continue to dominate \nthe forecast waters through Fri. A cold front will reach the NE \nwaters on Fri with little change in winds and seas. A stronger \ncold front will move into the waters off northeast Florida by late\nFri night into early Sat morning, and reach from near Bermuda to \nSouth Florida by late Sat. Strong to near-gale force winds and \nrough to very rough seas will follow the front with gale \nconditions possible in the vicinity of 31N70W by Sun night. \n", "title": "Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion", "id": "1219076816547905538", "issued": "2026-10-15T00:15:00Z", "wmo": "AXNT20", "source": "NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center, received via the National Weather Wire Service", "page": "https://hurricane.terrapin.com/text/1219076816547905538"}