{"id": "1219058002925584387", "title": "Tropical Cyclone Discussion", "adv_date": "2026-10-15T21:00:00Z", "msg": "596\nWTPZ41 KNHC 152049\nTCDEP1\n \nHurricane Trudy Discussion Number  10\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP212026\n300 PM CST Thu Oct 15 2026\n\nTrudy's intensification appears to have temporarily paused. An Air \nForce Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft investigated the hurricane \na few hours ago and reported maximum 700-mb flight-level winds of \n84 kt and a central pressure near 978 mb.  Satellite imagery shows \nan attempt to form an eye, but it has not yet fully cleared out. \nThe various satellite intensity estimates have changed little over \nthe past few hours, and the initial intensity remains 80 kt based \non them and the aircraft data.  The satellite imagery suggests a \ntongue of dry air is wrapping into the cyclone around the north \nside of the central dense overcast, and this may be responsible for \nthe pause in the development.\n\nThe initial motion is north-northwestward or 345/5 kt. The \nhurricane is currently heading for a weakness in the subtropical \nridge caused by a mid- to upper-level trough extending from the \nYucatan Peninsula westward to central Mexico. During the next 36 h, \nthis feature should weaken and move eastward, allowing a mid- to \nupper-level ridge to develop over Mexico. This evolution should \ncause Trudy to turn northwestward roughly parallel to the coast of \nMexico. The bulk of the track guidance keeps the center just \noffshore of the coast. However, any track to the right of the \nofficial forecast - such as shown by the GFS - would bring the \ncenter onshore. After 72 h, low- to mid-level ridging to the north \nof the cyclone should steer it slowly westward. The new track \nforecast is a little to the east of the previous forecast through \n36 h, similar to the previous forecast from 36-72 h, and a little \nnorth of the previous forecast from 72-120 h.\n\nExcept for the apparent tongue of dry air, conditions appear \nfavorable for steady to rapid development during the next 24-36 h. \nThe new intensity forecast keeps the peak intensity of 125 kt from \nthe previous advisory, which is near or a little above the upper \nedge of the intensity guidance.  After 36 h, there should be \nincreasing southwesterly shear that will likely halt development. \nEven with the forecast track keeping the center offshore, the \ncyclone will likely be close enough to land to cause the cyclone \nto weaken. However, any track to the left and farther offshore of \nthe current forecast would let Trudy stay stronger than currently \nforecast, while any track that the brings the center inland would \ncause rapid weakening and possibly dissipation. Beyond 72 h, strong \nshear should cause continued weakening even though the center is \nmoving away from land.  The intensity forecast follows the overall \ntrend of the guidance, and it is near the upper edge of the \nguidance.\n \n \nKEY MESSAGES:\n \n1. Trudy is forecast to be a major hurricane as it approaches the \ncoast of southwestern and west-central Mexico this weekend. There is \nan increasing risk of wind, rain, and storm surge impacts. A \nHurricane Watch and a Tropical Storm Warning have been issued for a \nportion of the southwestern Mexican coast, and additional watches \nwill likely be required further up the coast tonight or Friday.\n \n2. Heavy rainfall associated with Trudy will impact the southwest \nMexican coast between Guerrero and Jalisco through the weekend. This \nrainfall may produce life-threatening flooding and mudslides by the \nweekend along and near the southwest Mexican coast in Michoac\u00e1n, \nColima, and Jalisco, especially in areas along steep terrain.\n \n3. Large swells will begin to affect portions of the coast of\nsouthwestern Mexico Friday and continue through the weekend. These\nswells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.\n \n \nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n \nINIT  15/2100Z 13.7N 101.7W   80 KT  90 MPH\n 12H  16/0600Z 14.3N 101.9W   95 KT 110 MPH\n 24H  16/1800Z 15.2N 102.2W  115 KT 130 MPH\n 36H  17/0600Z 16.3N 102.9W  125 KT 145 MPH\n 48H  17/1800Z 17.5N 103.9W  120 KT 140 MPH\n 60H  18/0600Z 18.8N 104.9W  105 KT 120 MPH\n 72H  18/1800Z 19.8N 105.8W   90 KT 105 MPH\n 96H  19/1800Z 20.5N 107.4W   55 KT  65 MPH\n120H  20/1800Z 20.5N 108.4W   50 KT  60 MPH\n \n"}