{"id": "1219056728601100291", "title": "Tropical Cyclone Discussion", "adv_date": "2026-10-15T21:00:00Z", "msg": "395\nWTPZ45 KNHC 152043\nTCDEP5\n \nTropical Storm Simon Discussion Number  34\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP202026\n200 PM MST Thu Oct 15 2026\n\nSimon continues to produce an area of deep convection, though this \nactivity has lacked a ton of organization today, and appears to \nstill be displaced to the west of the center of circulation. A RCM-2 \nsynthetic aperture radar (SAR) pass that became available after the \nprior advisory indicated that most of this convective activity was \nalso occurring outside of its radius of maximum winds, and has done \nlittle to aid the small circulation. In fact, the peak winds \nretrieved from the SAR was only 47 kt. This information, combined \nwith a Metop-B scatterometer pass that had a peak wind of 39 kt is \njustification to bring Simon's intensity down to 45 kt this \nadvisory, and this may still be generous. \n\nSimon has been drifting rather aimlessly today, and my best guess \nat an estimated motion is 320/1 kt. It has been a tough few days \ntrying to forecast Simon's track, but the model guidance this cycle \nis finally coming into better agreement showing that as Simon \nbecomes a more vertically shallow cyclone, it will primarily be \nsteered by the low-level flow. To that end, a weak low-level trough \nis forecast to drop equatorward to the west of Simon as a strong \npressure gradient develops over northern Mexico as surface ridging \nbuilds in behind a frontal boundary. This flow should help to \nfinally draw Simon back to the northwest with a speed up in its \nforward motion. The latest NHC track forecast is shifted once again \na little further west but also faster, following the latest trends \nin the reliable HFIP Corrected Consensus Approach (HCCA) and Google \nDeepMind ensemble mean (GDMI). \n\nWhile the shear over Simon is currently low, it has not taken \nadvantage of these more favorable conditions, likely due to the \nproximity of dry air preventing the convection from organizing. The \nvertical wind shear is soon expected to increase significantly out \nof the southwest as a deep-layer trough located over the \nsouthwestern United States cuts off and retrogrades back westward. \nSimon has already been sensitive to less than pristine conditions, \nand this increase in shear will likely be the storm's demise. The \nlatest NHC forecast now shows gradual weakening continuing over the \nnext 24-36 h, with Simon becoming a remnant low in 48 h, and fully \ndissipating in 72 h. If the latest ECMWF forecast is correct, this \ncould occur sooner than forecasted here.\n \n \nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n \nINIT  15/2100Z 19.3N 108.2W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 12H  16/0600Z 19.8N 108.7W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 24H  16/1800Z 20.8N 110.0W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 36H  17/0600Z 22.0N 111.9W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 48H  17/1800Z 23.1N 113.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 60H  18/0600Z 24.5N 115.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 72H  18/1800Z...DISSIPATED\n \n"}