{"msg": "448\nAXNT20 KNHC 151819\nTWDAT \nTropical Weather Discussion\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n1815 UTC Thu Oct 15 2026\nTropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America\nGulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South\nAmerica, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the\nEquator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite\nimagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.\nBased on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through \n1300 UTC.\n...SPECIAL FEATURES...\nGulf of America Gale Warning: A cold front is forecast to enter\nthe northwest Gulf on Fri, and reach from southwest Florida to \nthe central Bay of Campeche by late Sat. Fresh to strong winds and\nmoderate to rough seas will follow the front, with gales expected\nover the west-central Gulf by early Sat morning, and over the SW \nGulf by early Sat afternoon. Rough to very rough seas are expected\nwith the strongest winds. Gale conditions are forecast to persist\nover the SW Gulf through Sun. Please read the latest High Seas \nForecast issued by the National Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO \nheaders FZNT02 KNHC/HSFAT2 or at website \nhttps://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details.\n...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...\nThe monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 12N16W and extends SW\nto 1008 mb low pressure captured by recent ASCAT scatterometer\ndata at 06N33.5W to 03N39W. The ITCZ extends from 03N39W to the\ncoast of northern South America at 05N52W. Scattered moderate\nisolated strong convection is noted from 06N to 10N between 14W\nand 25W. Similar convection is noted within 120 nm in the SE\nsemicircle and 240 nm in the NW semicircle of the low.\n...GULF OF AMERICA...\nAn upper-level low over Yucatan and NW Caribbean is supporting\nisolated to widely scattered showers across the southern half of \nthe basin. A pair of weak surface troughs are analyzed in the SW\nGulf with little impacts. Otherwise, broad ridging extends across\nthe basin with moderate E-SE winds dominating. Seas are 1-3 ft in\nthe NE Gulf, and 3-5 ft elsewhere.\nFor the forecast, a ridge will dominate the Gulf region through \nFri producing a gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow and slight to\nmoderate seas. A cold front is forecast to enter the northwest \nGulf on Fri, and reach from southwest Florida to the central Bay \nof Campeche by late Sat. Fresh to strong winds and moderate to \nrough seas will follow the front, with gales expected over the \nwest-central Gulf by early Sat morning, and over the SW Gulf by \nearly Sat afternoon. Rough to very rough seas are expected with \nthe strongest winds. Gale conditions are forecast to persist over \nthe SW Gulf through Sun.\n...CARIBBEAN SEA...\nAn upper-level low over Yucatan and NW Caribbean are supporting\nisolated to widely scattered showers over the NW portion of the\nbasin. A surface trough extends from 20N84W to eastern Honduras\nand NE Nicaragua at 13N84W. These features support moderate\nisolated strong convection from 15N to 21N between 77W and 83W. \nFresh to locally strong winds are in the S-central Caribbean with\nmoderate to fresh elsewhere west of 68W, except gentle to moderate\nin the SW Caribbean S of 11N, and near the coasts of Nicaragua and\nHonduras. Seas are mainly 3 ft E of 68W, and 3-6 ft elsewhere\nexcept slight in the SW Caribbean and near the coasts of Nicaragua\nand Honduras.\nFor the forecast, high pressure N of area combined with the \nColombian low will support moderate to fresh trade winds offshore \nColombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela through the upcoming \nweekend, with rough seas offshore Colombia. Moderate or weaker \nwinds and slight to moderate seas will prevail elsewhere. An area \nof showers and thunderstorms associated with a surface trough will\ncontinue to affect the NW Caribbean today and tonight. Gusty \nwinds and locally rough seas will be associated with this \nconvective activity. \n...ATLANTIC OCEAN...\nA frontal trough is in the central Atlantic extending from N of\nthe area through 31N52W to 26N63W. Scattered moderate convection\nis N of 29N within 60-120 nm ahead of the trough. Moderate SW\nwinds are across the same area with 6-8 ft seas. Recent ASCAT \nscatterometer data showed a 1013 mb low pressure off to the SE \nnear 21N37W with a N to S oriented surface trough through the low.\nScattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 19N \nto 23N between 27W and 32W, and also from 22N to 26N between 33W \nand 40W. Moderate to fresh winds are found from 20N to 27N between\n30W and 40W near the low and trough. Seas are 6-9 ft there. Seas\nare 4-7 ft across the remainder of the waters E of 55W. Please \nrefer to the ITCZ/monsoon trough section for additional convection\nwith an embedded low in the monsoon trough. A broad and weak \npressure pattern dominates the remainder of the basin. Gentle to \nmoderate winds dominate the majority and rest of the basin, \nlocally fresh from the SE Bahamas to the Windward Passage and NE \nCuba, and S of 10N to the W of 55W near the coast of northern \nSouth America. Seas are 4-7 ft in N-NE swell N of 27N between 55W\nand 65W, and 3-5 ft elsewhere W of 55W.\nFor the forecast west of 55W, a ridge will continue to dominate \nthe forecast waters through Fri. A cold front will reach the NE \nwaters on Fri with little change in winds and seas. A stronger \ncold front will move into the waters off northeast Florida by late\nFri night into early Sat morning, and reach from near Bermuda to \nSouth Florida by late Sat. Strong to near-gale force winds and \nrough seas will follow the front. \n", "title": "Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion", "id": "1219028488397586435", "issued": "2026-10-15T18:15:00Z", "wmo": "AXNT20", "source": "NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center, received via the National Weather Wire Service", "page": "https://hurricane.terrapin.com/text/1219028488397586435"}