{"msg": "037\nAXPZ20 KNHC 151530\nTWDEP \nTropical Weather Discussion\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n1605 UTC Thu Oct 15 2026\nTropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from\n03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and\nfrom the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following\ninformation is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,\nradar, and meteorological analysis.\nBased on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through\n1500 UTC.\n...SPECIAL FEATURES...\nTropical Storm Simon is centered near 19.2N 108.1W at 15/1500\nUTC, and is stationary. Estimated minimum central pressure is \n996 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 50 kt with gusts to 60 \nkt. Peak seas are near 14 ft. Numerous moderate convection is\nfrom 18N to 20N between 107W and 109W. Simon is expected to move\nlittle through tonight, with a northwestward motion forecast to\nbegin Fri and continue through the weekend. Gradual weakening is\nforecast during the next few days and Simon is forecast to become\npost-tropical this weekend and a remnant low by the start of next\nweek. Interests in Baja California Sur should continue to \nclosely monitor the latest updates as Simon is expected to pass \nwest of that area this weekend. Large swells will affect \nportions of the coast of west- central Mexico and Baja California\nSur over the next couple of days. These swells are likely to \ncause large and powerful surf and life- threatening rip current \nconditions. Please consult products from your local weather \noffice.\nPlease read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National\nHurricane Center at website - \nhttps://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest \nSimon NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at \nwww.hurricanes.gov for more details.\nHurricane Trudy is centered near 13.1N 101.6W at 15/1500 UTC,\nmoving north-northwest at 5 kt. Estimated minimum central\npressure is 975 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 80 kt with\ngusts to 100 kt. Peak seas are estimated at around 26 ft.\nNumerous strong convection is within 60 nm of the center. A\ncontinued north-northwest motion is expected during the next day\nor so, followed by a turn to the northwest this week. On the\nforecast track, Trudy is expected to approach the coast of\nsouthwestern and west-central Mexico this weekend. A tropical\nstorm watch has been issued for portions of Guerrero and\nMichoacan. Rapid intensification is forecast over the next or so,\nand Trudy is forecast to become a major hurricane by Fri. \nThrough the weekend, Trudy is expected to produce 4 to 8 inches \nof rain with isolated higher totals around 12 inches across \nColima and Jalisco. This rainfall may produce life- threatening \nflooding and mudslides, especially in areas along steep terrain. \nElsewhere, Trudy\u2019s outer bands are expected to produce 2 to 4 \ninches of rain with isolated higher totals around 6 inches along \nthe southwest coast of Mexico between Guerrero and Michoacan. \nThis rainfall may result in localized flash flooding through the \nweekend, especially in areas along steep terrain. Swells \ngenerated by Trudy will start to affect portions of the coast of \nsouthwestern Mexico over the next day or so, and continue into \nthe weekend. Swells may impact southern Baja California later \nthis weekend into early next week. These swells are likely to \ncause large and powerful surf and life- threatening rip current \nconditions. Please consult products from your local weather \noffice.\nPlease read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National\nHurricane Center at website - \nhttps://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest \nTrudy NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at \nwww.hurricanes.gov for more details.\n...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...\nThe monsoon trough extends from 08N83W to 12N94W, then resumes \nfrom near 10N103W to 03N117W. The ITCZ extends from 03N117W to \n05N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 01N to 08N \nbetween 103W and 117W.\n...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...\nPlease see the Special Features section above for information on \nTropical Storm Simon and Hurricane Trudy.\nAside from conditions associated with Simon and Trudy, moderate\nto locally fresh N to NE winds prevail across the waters west of\nBaja California and extend to the Revillagigedo Islands. Seas \nare in the 6 to 8 ft range in merging SW and NW swell. Fresh to\nlocally strong northerly winds, and moderate seas are over the \nGulf of California. Light to gentle winds, and moderate seas, are\nnoted elsewhere. \nFor the forecast, Tropical Storm Simon will move to 19.1N 108.5W\nthis afternoon, 19.6N 108.9W Fri morning, 20.5N 109.8W Fri \nafternoon, 21.3N 110.9W Sat morning, weaken to a tropical \ndepression near 22.2N 112.0W Sat afternoon, and become a remnant \nlow and move to 23.2N 113.0W Sun morning. Simon will change \nlittle in intensity as it moves to near 26.0N 114.5W early Mon. \nHurricane Trudy will move to 13.4N 101.9W this afternoon, 14.2N \n102.3W Fri morning, 15.1N 102.8W Fri afternoon, 16.1N 103.4W Sat \nmorning, 17.4N 104.4W Sat afternoon, and 18.8N 105.5W Sun \nmorning. Trudy will change little in intensity as it moves to \nnear 20.5N 107.3W early Mon. Elsewhere rough seas in NW swell \nwest of Baja California will diminish through early today. A Gulf\nof Tehuantepec gap wind event is expected late this week through\nthe upcoming weekend as high pressure builds behind a cold front\nmoving across the waters N of the area. \n...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, \nAND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...\nLight to gentle winds, and moderate seas, prevail over the waters\nN of 04N. Gentle to moderate winds, and moderate seas in SW \nswell, prevail over the remainder of the offshore waters. \nFor the forecast, a weak pressure gradient will support moderate\nor lighter winds, and moderate seas dominated by SW swell across\nmuch of the forecast waters through the remainder of the week \nand into the weekend. New SW swell will bring rough seas over the\nwaters south and west of the Galapagos Islands Fri through Sat. \n...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...\nModerate N to NE winds and moderate to rough seas cover the \nwaters N of 10N and west of 115W. Light to gentle winds and \nmoderate to rough seas in merging NW and SW swell prevail S of \n10N and W of 110W. Moderate winds and moderate to rough seas\nprevail elsewhere.\nFor the forecast, large SW swell moving into the regional waters\nwill raise seas to 8 ft and greater to S of 10N and west of 100W\nover the next couple of days.\n", "title": "Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion", "id": "1218995235382525955", "issued": "2026-10-15T16:05:00Z", "wmo": "AXPZ20", "source": "NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center, received via the National Weather Wire Service", "page": "https://hurricane.terrapin.com/text/1218995235382525955"}