{"id": "1218986039559323651", "title": "Tropical Cyclone Discussion", "adv_date": "2026-10-15T15:00:00Z", "msg": "925\nWTPZ45 KNHC 151443\nTCDEP5\n \nTropical Storm Simon Discussion Number  33\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP202026\n800 AM MST Thu Oct 15 2026\n \nFirst light visible imagery, along with GPM and AMSR-3 microwave\ndata, show that the convective organization of Simon has changed a\nbit, with the main convection now in a band to the west of the\ncenter. The various subjective and objective satellite intensity\nestimates are in the 40-55 kt range and have not changed much\nduring the past 6 h. Based on this, the initial intensity remains a\npossibly generous 50 kt.\n \nThe microwave overpasses suggest the center of Simon is a little to\nthe east of the previous advisory position, and it appears that the\ncyclone may be making a small loop in its track. Little motion is\nexpected for the next 12 h or so as Simon remains embedded in an\narea of weak steering currents. After that time, a mid- to\nupper-level low is forecast to form near or west of the northern\nBaja California Peninsula while a weak mid-level ridge develops over\nnorthern and central Mexico. This should cause Simon to move\nnorthwestward near, but west of, the coast of Baja California Sur,\nand this motion is expected to continue until the system\ndissipates. The current track guidance is in better agreement in\nboth direction and speed that it was 24 h ago, and the new forecast\ntrack lies near the center of the guidance envelope. The new\nforecast is a little to the east of the previous forecast through\n60 h based mainly on the initial position, and after that it is\nclose to the previous forecast. Given the new track forecast and\nthe small size of Simon, wind watches are not needed for Baja\nCalifornia Sur at this time.\n \nThe shear over Simon has decreased since yesterday, and it should\nremain light for the next 12-18 h. However, the storm is embedded\nis a dry air mass, so it likely will not be able to take advantage\nof the decreased shear. After 18 h, southerly and southwesterly\nupper-level winds are forecast to increase between the trough to the\nnorthwest of Simon and Hurricane Trudy to the southeast. This will\nresult in strong shear over Simon that should cause the cyclone to\nweaken. The intensity forecast shows the system becoming a remnant\nlow pressure area by 72 h and dissipating completely by 120 h, and\nglobal model guidance suggests these events could happen earlier\nthan currently forecast.\n \n \nKey Messages:\n \n1. Interests in Baja California Sur should continue to closely\nmonitor the latest updates as Simon is expected to pass near or west\nof that area this weekend.\n \n2. Large swells will likely affect portions of the coast of\nwest-central Mexico and Baja California Sur over the next couple of\ndays. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current\nconditions.\n \n \nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n \nINIT  15/1500Z 19.2N 108.1W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 12H  16/0000Z 19.5N 108.1W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 24H  16/1200Z 20.2N 108.8W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 36H  17/0000Z 21.1N 110.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 48H  17/1200Z 21.9N 111.3W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 60H  18/0000Z 22.9N 112.6W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 72H  18/1200Z 24.0N 113.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 96H  19/1200Z 26.8N 114.4W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n120H  20/1200Z...DISSIPATED\n \n"}