{"msg": "271\nAXNT20 KNHC 150945\nTWDAT \nTropical Weather Discussion\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n1215 UTC Thu Oct 15 2026\nTropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America\nGulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South\nAmerica, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the\nEquator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite\nimagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.\nBased on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through \n0930 UTC.\n...SPECIAL FEATURE...\nGulf of America Gale Warning: A cold front is forecast to enter \nthe northwest Gulf late on Fri, and reach from southwest Florida \nto the central Bay of Campeche by late Sat. Fresh to strong winds \nand moderate to rough seas will follow the front, with gales \npossible over the west-central Gulf by early Sat morning, and \nover the SW Gulf by Sat afternoon. Rough to very rough seas are \nexpected with the strongest winds. Gale conditions are forecast to\npersist over the SW Gulf trough Sun.\n...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...\nThe monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 11N15W and extends SW\nto 05N53W. The ITCZ continues from that point to 05N53W. \nScattered moderate to strong convection is from 02N to 11N \nand E of 38W.\n...GULF OF AMERICA...\nAn upper-level low over Yucatan and NW Caribbean is supporting \nshowers across the western half of the basin. A high pressure \nridge extends from a 1019 mb high center that is over the Florida \nPanhandle. Recent scatterometer data along with buoy observations \nreveal moderate to fresh east winds east of 90W, and moderate east\nto southeast winds west of 90W. Over the eastern Bay of Campeche,\na surface trough is generating scattered showers and fresh to \nnear gale force SE to E winds. Seas basin- wide are slight to \nmoderate. Locally higher seas are likely with the convection \nassociated with the trough offshore Yucatan. Otherwise, the \nremnants of a surface trough are supporting scattered showers in \nthe Straits of Florida and the Yucatan Channel. \nFor the forecast, the ridge will dominate the Gulf region through\nFri producing a gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow and slight \nto moderate seas. A cold front is forecast to enter the northwest \nGulf late Fri, and reach from southwest Florida to the central Bay\nof Campeche by late Sat. Fresh to strong winds and moderate to \nrough seas will follow the front, with gales expected over the \nwest-central Gulf by early Sat morning, and over the SW Gulf by \nSat afternoon. Rough to very rough seas are expected with the \nstrongest winds. Gale conditions are forecast to persist over the \nSW Gulf through Sun.\n...CARIBBEAN SEA...\nAn upper-level low over Yucatan and NW Caribbean are supporting \nisolated showers across the western half of the basin, except for \nscattered showers and tstms along a surface trough that extends \nfrom 13N81W to 20N81W. Recent scatterometer data show fresh to \nstrong E to SE winds in the vicinity of this convective activity \nwhere seas to 8 ft are likely. Otherwise, surface ridging N of the\nregion, is supporting moderate to fresh easterlies in the central\nCaribbean and moderate or weaker trades elsewhere. Seas are 3-4 \nft over the NW and E basin, and 5 to 6 ft over the central and \nportions of the SW Caribbean. \nFor the forecast, high pressure N of area combined with the \nColombian low will support moderate to fresh trade winds offshore \nColombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela through the upcoming \nweekend, with rough seas offshore Colombia. Moderate or weaker \nwinds and slight to moderate seas will prevail elsewhere. Moisture\nassociated with an uper-level trough over the central Caribbean \nwill reach the NW Caribbean today, keeping the chances of showers \nand thunderstorms across the basin high. Gusty winds and rough \nseas will be associated with this convective activity. \n...ATLANTIC OCEAN...\nA surface trough is analyzed along 67W with scattered\nshowers in its vicinity. Surface high pressure over the SE CONUS \nand NE of Bermuda support mainly light to gentle winds, and slight\nto moderate seas over the west and central subtropical Atlantic \nwaters. Fresh easterly winds are ongoing in the Great Bahama \nBank. Otherwise, the subtropical eastern Atlantic is under the \ninfluence of the Azores High, which is generally supporting \nmoderate to fresh northeast winds and moderate seas to 6 ft \nbetween the coast of NW Africa and 22W, including the waters \nadjacent to the Canary Islands. A 1011 mb low is located near \n21N36W, which is generating scattered showers from 19N to 27N \nbetween 28W and 39W. Moderate to fresh winds are in the northern \nsemicircle of the low to approximately 27N along with rough seas \nto 9 ft. \nFor the forecast west of 55W, the surface trough E of the Bahamas\nis forecast to dissipate later today. A cold front will reach the\nNE waters on Fri with little change in winds and seas. A stronger\ncold front will move into the waters off northeast Florida by \nlate Fri night into early Sat morning, and reach from near Bermuda\nto South Florida by late Sat. Strong to near-gale force winds and\nrough seas will follow the front. \n", "title": "Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion", "id": "1218927349121155075", "issued": "2026-10-15T12:15:00Z", "wmo": "AXNT20", "source": "NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center, received via the National Weather Wire Service", "page": "https://hurricane.terrapin.com/text/1218927349121155075"}