{"msg": "817\nAXPZ20 KNHC 150856\nTWDEP \nTropical Weather Discussion\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n1005 UTC Thu Oct 15 2026\nTropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from\n03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and\nfrom the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following\ninformation is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,\nradar, and meteorological analysis.\nBased on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through\n0845 UTC.\n...SPECIAL FEATURES...\nTropical Storm Simon is centered near 19.2N 108.5W at 15/0900\nUTC, and is stationary. Estimated minimum central pressure is \n996 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 50 kt with gusts to 60 \nkt. Peak seas are near 15 ft. Scattered to locally numerous \nmoderate isolated strong convection is from 18N to 20N between \n107W and 109W. Simon has been nearly stationary for the past few\nhours, but its longer-term motion has been a southwestward \ndrift. The storm is likely to meander within very weak steering \ncurrents during the next 12-24 h. However, a turn to the \nnorthwest seems likely on Friday. The system is forecast to \nmaintain its intensity the next 12 hours or so, then continue a \nweakening trend. Interests in Baja California Sur should continue\nto closely monitor the latest updates as Simon is expected to \npass near or west of that area this weekend. Large swells will \nlikely affect portions of the coast of west- central Mexico and \nBaja California Sur over the next couple of days. These swells \ncould cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. \nThese swells are likely to cause large and powerful surf and \nlife- threatening rip current conditions. Please consult products\nfrom your local weather office.\nPlease read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National\nHurricane Center at website - \nhttps://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest \nSimon NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at \nwww.hurricanes.gov for more details.\nRecently upgraded Hurricane Trudy is centered near 12.9N 101.6W \nat 15/0900 UTC, moving northwest at 8 kt. Estimated minimum \ncentral pressure is 989 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 65 kt\nwith gusts to 80 kt. Peak seas are estimated at around 24 ft. \nNumerous moderate to strong convection within 45 nm of center. \nScattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted \nelsewhere from 10N to 16N between 96W and 104W. The system will \nmaintain a general northwestward track before a gradual turn \ntoward the north- northwest during the next day or so. \nThereafter, a gradual turn toward the north- northwest and \npossibly north is anticipated. The latest intensity forecast \ncalls for rapid intensification during the next 24 h, with Trudy \nexpected to become a major hurricane by Friday, followed by \nadditional strengthening through Saturday. By day 3, increasing \nvertical wind shear and the entrainment of drier mid-level air \nare expected to induce weakening. Trudy is forecast to be a \nmajor hurricane as it approaches the coast of southwestern and \nwest-central Mexico this weekend. There is an increasing risk of \nwind, rain, and storm surge impacts, and watches will likely be \nrequired for portions of the coast later this morning. Through \nthe weekend, Trudy is expected to produce 4 to 8 inches of rain \nwith isolated higher totals around 12 inches across Colima and \nJalisco. This rainfall may produce life- threatening flooding and\nmudslides, especially in areas along steep terrain. Elsewhere, \nTrudy\u2019s outer bands are expected to produce 2 to 4 inches of \nrain with isolated higher totals around 6 inches along the \nsouthwest coast of Mexico between Guerrero and Michoacan. This \nrainfall may result in localized flash flooding through the \nweekend, especially in areas along steep terrain. Swells \ngenerated by Trudy will start to affect portions of the coast of\nsouthwestern Mexico over the next day or so, and continue into \nthe weekend. Swells may impact southern Baja California later \nthis weekend into early next week. These swells are likely to \ncause large and powerful surf and life- threatening rip current \nconditions. Please consult products from your local weather \noffice.\nPlease read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National\nHurricane Center at website - \nhttps://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest \nTrudy NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at \nwww.hurricanes.gov for more details.\n...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...\nThe monsoon trough extends from 08N83W to 11N92W, then resumes \nfrom near 10N103W to 03N114W. The ITCZ extends from 03N114W to \n05N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted \nfrom 01N to 08N between 93W and 106W. \n...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...\nPlease see the Special Features section above for information on \nTropical Storm Simon and recently upgraded Hurricane Trudy.\nAside from conditions associated with Simon and Trudy, moderate\nto locally fresh N to NE winds prevail across the waters west of\nBaja California and extend to the Revillagigedo Islands. Seas \nare in the 6 to 8 ft range in merging SW and NW swell. Fresh to\nlocally strong northerly winds, and moderate seas are over the \nGulf of California. Light to gentle winds, and moderate seas, are\nnoted elsewhere. \nFor the forecast, Tropical Storm Simon is near 19.2N 108.5W at 2\nAM PDT, and is stationary. Maximum sustained winds are 50 kt \nwith gusts to 60 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 996 mb. \nSimon will move to 19.1N 108.5W this afternoon, 19.6N 108.9W Fri \nmorning, 20.5N 109.8W Fri afternoon, 21.3N 110.9W Sat morning, \nweaken to a tropical depression near 22.2N 112.0W Sat afternoon, \nand become a remnant low and move to 23.2N 113.0W Sun morning. \nSimon will change little in intensity as it moves to near 26.0N \n114.5W early Mon. Recently upgraded Hurricane Trudy is near 12.9N\n101.6W at 2 AM PDT, and is moving northwest at 8 kt. Maximum \nsustained winds are 65 kt with gusts to 80 kt, and the minimum \ncentral pressure is 989 mb. Trudy will move to 13.4N 101.9W this \nafternoon, 14.2N 102.3W Fri morning, 15.1N 102.8W Fri afternoon, \n16.1N 103.4W Sat morning, 17.4N 104.4W Sat afternoon, and 18.8N \n105.5W Sun morning. Trudy will change little in intensity as it \nmoves to near 20.5N 107.3W early Mon. Elsewhere rough seas in NW \nswell west of Baja California will diminish through early today. \nA Gulf of Tehuantepec gap wind event is expected late this week \nthrough the upcoming weekend as high pressure builds behind a \ncold front moving across the waters N of the area. \n...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, \nAND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...\nLight to gentle winds, and moderate seas, prevail over the waters\nN of 04N. Gentle to moderate winds, and moderate seas in SW \nswell, prevail over the remainder of the offshore waters. \nFor the forecast, a weak pressure gradient will support moderate\nor lighter winds, and moderate seas dominated by SW swell across\nmuch of the forecast waters through the remainder of the week \nand into the weekend. New SW swell will bring rough seas over the\nwaters south and west of the Galapagos Islands Fri through Sat. \n...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...\nModerate N to NE winds and moderate to rough seas cover the \nwaters N of 10N and west of 115W. Light to gentle winds and \nmoderate to rough seas in merging NW and SW swell prevail S of \n10N and W of 110W. Moderate winds and moderate to rough seas\nprevail elsewhere.\nFor the forecast, large SW swell moving into the regional waters\nwill raise seas to 8 ft and greater to S of 10N and west of 100W\nover the next couple of days.\n", "title": "Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion", "id": "1218917716861419523", "issued": "2026-10-15T10:05:00Z", "wmo": "AXPZ20", "source": "NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center, received via the National Weather Wire Service", "page": "https://hurricane.terrapin.com/text/1218917716861419523"}