{"id": "1218914561776680963", "title": "Tropical Cyclone Discussion", "adv_date": "2026-10-15T09:00:00Z", "msg": "343\nWTPZ45 KNHC 150839\nTCDEP5\n \nTropical Storm Simon Discussion Number  32\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP202026\n200 AM MST Thu Oct 15 2026\n \nThe satellite presentation of Simon has not changed much since the \nprior advisory. The center of the tropical storm remains embedded \nunderneath a small, cold central dense overcast. No recent passive \nmicrowave data is available to assess the internal structure of \nSimon, but conventional satellite images indicate it is still a \nsmall storm. The initial intensity is lowered slightly to 50 kt. \nThis is based on a blend of the TAFB Dvorak estimate (T3.5/55 kt) \nand the latest UW-CIMSS objective estimates (43-52 kt), with some \nconsideration given to the earlier aircraft data as well.\n\nSimon has been nearly stationary for the past few hours, but its \nlonger-term motion has been a southwestward drift. The storm is \nlikely to meander within very weak steering currents during the next \n12-24 h. By Friday, the track models generally agree that Simon will \nturn northwestward on the east side of a cutoff low near the \nsouthwestern United States. This should bring the center of the \ncompact tropical cyclone near but to the west of Baja California \nover the weekend. Based on the latest track guidance, the NHC \nforecast has been shifted slightly left of the previous prediction, \nin the direction of HCCA and closer to the TVCN simple consensus.\n\nLittle change in strength is expected today while Simon meanders \nover warm waters and vertical wind shear over the storm gradually \nstrengthens. Much stronger southwesterly shear is forecast on Friday \nand into the weekend, which should disrupt the vertical structure of \nthe storm and introduce drier air into its circulation. The NHC \nforecast has once again trended weaker, following the latest \nmulti-model consensus aids. Simon is predicted to lose organized \nconvection and become post-tropical by 72 h. It would not be \nsurprising if this occurs even sooner, as some models like the ECMWF \nand Google DeepMind show Simon dissipating late this weekend. Given \nthe latest track forecast trends and the small size of Simon, wind \nwatches are not needed for Baja California Sur at this time.\n \n \nKey Messages:\n \n1. Interests in Baja California Sur should continue to closely \nmonitor the latest updates as Simon is expected to pass near or west \nof that area this weekend.\n \n2. Large swells will likely affect portions of the coast of \nwest-central Mexico and Baja California Sur over the next couple of \ndays. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current \nconditions.\n \n \nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n \nINIT  15/0900Z 19.2N 108.5W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 12H  15/1800Z 19.1N 108.5W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 24H  16/0600Z 19.6N 108.9W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 36H  16/1800Z 20.5N 109.8W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 48H  17/0600Z 21.3N 110.9W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 60H  17/1800Z 22.2N 112.0W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 72H  18/0600Z 23.2N 113.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 96H  19/0600Z 26.0N 114.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n120H  20/0600Z...DISSIPATED\n \n"}