{"msg": "933\nAXNT20 KNHC 150614\nTWDAT \nTropical Weather Discussion\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n0615 UTC Thu Oct 15 2026\nTropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America\nGulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South\nAmerica, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the\nEquator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite\nimagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.\nBased on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through \n0530 UTC.\n...TROPICAL WAVES...\nA tropical wave is analyzed near 46W, from 11N to 18N, moving \nwestward near 10 kt. No significant convection is noted near the \nwave.\nA tropical wave is E of the Lesser Antilles near 59W, from 10N to\n19N, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection\nis from 10N to 13N between 54W and 58W.\n...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...\nThe monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic near 12N16W and \nextends SW to 07N25W to 05N34W where it transitions to the ITCZ \nwhich continues to 06N46W to 05N54W. Scattered moderate to strong\nconvection is from 04N to 10N between 26W and 36W. Scattered\nmoderate convection is elsewhere from 03N to 11N between 12W and\n25W.  \n...GULF OF AMERICA...\nA high pressure ridge extends from a 1018 mb high center that is \nover central Alabama southward to about 22N. Recent scatterometer\ndata along with buoy observations reveal moderate to locally \nfresh east winds east of 90W, and moderate east to southeast \nwinds west of 90W. Over the eastern Bay of Campeche, a surface\ntrough is generating scattered showers and fresh to locally near\ngale force SE to E winds. Seas basin-wide are slight to moderate.\nLocally higher seas are likely with the convection associated with\nthe trough offshore Yucatan. Otherwise, the remnants of a surface\ntrough are supporting scattered showers in the Straits of Florida\nand the Yucatan Channel. \nFor the forecast, a ridge will dominate the Gulf region through \nFri producing a gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow and slight to\nmoderate seas. A cold front is forecast to enter the northwest \nGulf late Fri, and reach from southwest Florida to the central Bay\nof Campeche by late Sat. Fresh to strong winds and moderate to \nrough seas will follow the front, with gales possible over the \nwest-central Gulf by early Sat morning, and over the SW Gulf by \nSat afternoon. Rough to very rough seas are expected with the \nstrongest winds. Gale conditions are forecast to persist over the \nSW Gulf trough Sun.\n...CARIBBEAN SEA...\nAn upper-level low over the Yucatan and NW Caribbean are\nsupporting isolated showers across the western half of the basin,\nexcept for scattered heavy showers and tstms lying behind a\nsurface trough that extends from 12N81W to 20N81W. Recent\nscatterometer data show fresh to strong E to SE winds in the\nvicinity of this convective activity where seas to 8 ft are\nlikely. Otherwise, surface ridging N of the region, is supporting\nmoderate to fresh easterlies in the central Caribbean and moderate\nor weaker trades elsewhere. Seas are 3-4 ft over the NW and E\nbasin, and 5 to 6 ft over the central and portions of the SW\nCaribbean. \nFor the forecast, high pressure N of area combined with the \nColombian low will support moderate to fresh trade winds offshore \nColombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela through the upcoming \nweekend, with rough seas offshore Colombia. Moderate or weaker \nwinds and slight to moderate seas will prevail elsewhere. Moisture\nassociated with an uper-level trough over the central Caribbean \nwill reach the NW Caribbean on Thu, keeping the chances of showers\nand thunderstorms across the basin. Gusty winds and rough seas \nwill be associated with this convective activity.\n...ATLANTIC OCEAN...\nSurface high pressure over the SE CONUS and NE of Bermuda support\nmainly light to gentle winds, and slight to moderate seas over \nthe west and central subtropical Atlantic waters. Locally fresh\neasterly winds are ongoing in the Great Bahama Bank. Otherwise, \nthe subtropical eastern Atlantic is under the influence of the \nAzores High, which is generally supporting moderate to fresh \nnortheast winds and moderate seas to 6 ft between the coast of NW\nAfrica and 22W, including the waters adjacent to the Canary \nIslands. A 1013 mb low is located near 21N38W, which is generating\nscattered showers from 20N to 27N between 28W and 39W. Moderate to\nfresh winds are in the northern semicircle of the low to\napproximately 27N along with rough seas to 9 ft. \nFor the forecast west of 55W, the low pressure E of the Bahamas is\nforecast to dissipate later today. A cold front will reach the NE\nwaters on Fri with little change in winds and seas. A stronger \ncold front will move into the waters off northeast Florida by late\nFri night into early Sat morning, and reach from near Bermuda to \nSouth Florida by late Sat. Strong to near-gale force winds and \nrough seas will follow the front. \n", "title": "Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion", "id": "1218885987605872643", "issued": "2026-10-15T06:15:00Z", "wmo": "AXNT20", "source": "NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center, received via the National Weather Wire Service", "page": "https://hurricane.terrapin.com/text/1218885987605872643"}