{"msg": "822\nAXPZ20 KNHC 150250\nTWDEP\nTropical Weather Discussion\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n0405 UTC Thu Oct 15 2026\nTropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from\n03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and\nfrom the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following\ninformation is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,\nradar, and meteorological analysis.\nBased on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through\n0230 UTC.\n...SPECIAL FEATURES...\nRecently downgraded Tropical Storm Simon is centered near 19.1N \n108.6W at 15/0300 UTC, moving southwest at 4 kt. Estimated \nminimum central pressure is 991 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed \nis 55 kt with gusts to 65 kt. Peak seas are near 17 ft. \nScattered to locally numerous moderate isolated strong convection\nis from 18N to 20N between 107W and 109W. The storm is moving \nsouthwestward at about 4 kt. Simon is forecast to move even \nslower or possibly stall over the next day or so as it remains \ncaught in weak steering currents. However, a turn to the \nnorthwest seems likely on Friday. The system is forecast to \nmaintain its intensity the next 12 hours or so, then continue a \nweakening trend. Interests in Baja California Sur should continue\nto closely monitor the latest updates as Simon is expected to \npass near or west of that area this weekend. Large swells will \nlikely affect portions of the coast of west- central Mexico and \nBaja California Sur over the next few days. These swells could \ncause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. These \nswells are likely to cause large and powerful surf and life- \nthreatening rip current conditions. Please consult products from \nyour local weather office.\nPlease read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National\nHurricane Center at website - \nhttps://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest \nSimon NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at \nwww.hurricanes.gov for more details.\nTropical Storm Trudy is centered near 12.4N 100.8W at 15/0300\nUTC, moving northwest at 7 kt. Estimated minimum central\npressure is 994 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 60 kt with\ngusts to 75 kt. Peak seas are estimated at around 22 ft. \nNumerous moderate to strong convection within 30 nm of center. \nScattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from \n10N to 17N between 96W and 106W. Trudy is forecast to continue \non a west-northwestward track into Thursday. Thereafter, a \ngradual turn toward the north- northwest and possibly north is \nanticipated. The latest forecast calls for rapid intensification \nduring the next 24 h, followed by additional strengthening to \nmajor hurricane intensity by Friday. Beyond 60 h, increasing \nsouthwesterly vertical wind shear and the entrainment of drier \nmid-level air are expected to induce weakening. Trudy is \nforecast to be a major hurricane as it approaches the coast of \nsouthwestern and west-central Mexico late this week and into the \nweekend. There is an increasing risk of wind, rain, and storm \nsurge impacts, and watches could be required for a portion of \nthese areas by early Thursday. Through the weekend, Trudy is \nexpected to produce 4 to 8 inches of rain with isolated higher \ntotals around 12 inches through the weekend across Colima and \nJalisco. This rainfall may produce life-threatening flooding and \nmudslides, especially in areas along steep terrain. Elsewhere, \nTrudy\u2019s outer bands are expected to produce 2 to 4 inches of \nrain with isolated higher totals around 6 inches along the \nsouthwest Mexican coast between Guerrero and Michoac\u00e1n. This \nrainfall may result in localized flash flooding through the \nweekend, especially in areas along steep terrain. Swells \ngenerated by Trudy will affect portions of the coast of \nsouthwestern Mexico Thu into the weekend, and southern Baja \nCalifornia later this weekend. These swells are likely to cause \nlarge and powerful surf and life- threatening rip current \nconditions. Please consult products from your local weather \noffice.\nPlease read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National\nHurricane Center at website - \nhttps://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest \nTrudy NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at \nwww.hurricanes.gov for more details.\n...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...\nThe monsoon trough extends from 08N83W to 10N90W, then resumes \nfrom near 07N101W to 03N117W. The ITCZ extends from 02N117W to \n05N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted \nfrom 01N to 06N between 97W and 114W, and from 00N to 06N \nbetween 135W and 140W. \n...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...\nPlease see the Special Features section above for information on \nTropical Storm Simon and Tropical Storm Trudy.\nAside from conditions associated with Simon and Trudy, moderate\nto locally fresh N to NE winds prevail across the waters west of\nBaja California and extend to the Revillagigedo Islands. Seas \nare in the 6 to 8 ft range in merging SW and NW swell. Fresh to\nlocally strong northerly winds, and moderate seas to 6 ft are \nover the Gulf of California. Light to gentle winds, and moderate\nseas, are noted elsewhere. \nFor the forecast, recently downgraded Tropical Storm Simon is \nnear 19.1N 108.6W at 8 PM PDT, and is moving southwest at 4 kt. \nMaximum sustained winds are 55 kt with gusts to 65 kt, and the \nminimum central pressure is 991 mb. Simon will move to 19.0N \n108.5W Thu morning, 19.1N 108.6W Thu evening, 19.7N 109.1W Fri \nmorning, 20.8N 110.3W Fri evening, 21.7N 111.2W Sat morning, and \nweaken to a tropical depression near 22.8N 112.3W Sat evening. \nSimon will become a remnant low as it moves to near 24.6N 113.6W \nlate Sun. Tropical Storm Trudy is near 12.4N 100.8W at 8 PM PDT, \nand is moving northwest at 7 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 60 \nkt with gusts to 75 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 994 \nmb. Trudy will strengthen to a hurricane near 12.9N 101.3W Thu \nmorning, move to 13.6N 101.8W Thu evening, 14.5N 102.1W Fri \nmorning, 15.3N 102.5W Fri evening, 16.4N 103.2W Sat morning, and \n17.6N 104.3W Sat evening. Trudy will change little in intensity \nas it moves to near 19.7N 106.4W late Sun. Elsewhere rough seas \nin NW swell west of Baja California will gradually diminish \nthrough Thu. A Gulf of Tehuantepec gap wind event is expected \nlate this week through the upcoming weekend as high pressure \nbuilds behind a cold front moving across the waters N of the \narea.\n...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, \nAND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...\nLight to gentle winds, and moderate seas, prevail over the waters\nN of 04N. Gentle to moderate winds, and moderate seas in SW \nswell, prevail over the remainder of the offshore waters. \nFor the forecast, a weak pressure gradient will support moderate\nor lighter winds, and moderate seas dominated by SW swell across\nmuch of the forecast waters through the remainder of the week \nand into the weekend. New SW swell will bring rough seas over the\nwaters south and west of the Galapagos Islands Fri through Sat. \n...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...\nModerate N to NE winds and rough seas cover the waters from 15N \nto 21N and west of 115W. Light to gentle winds and moderate to \nrough seas in merging NW and SW swell generally prevail S of 20N \nW of 100W, except for moderate winds near the equator. \nFor the forecast, large SW swell moving into the regional waters\ntoday will raise seas to 8 ft and greater to the S of 07N and \nwest of 105W over the next couple of days, followed by another \npulse of large S-SW swell arriving into the waters W of 100W Wed \nnight.\n", "title": "Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion", "id": "1218845819568488451", "issued": "2026-10-15T04:05:00Z", "wmo": "AXPZ20", "source": "NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center, received via the National Weather Wire Service", "page": "https://hurricane.terrapin.com/text/1218845819568488451"}