{"id": "1218842293212020739", "title": "Tropical Cyclone Discussion", "adv_date": "2026-10-15T03:00:00Z", "msg": "426\nWTPZ45 KNHC 150232\nTCDEP5\n \nTropical Storm Simon Discussion Number  31\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP202026\n800 PM MST Wed Oct 14 2026\n \nSimon remains a tiny storm. The earlier Air Force Hurricane Hunter \ndata along with an ASCAT-C pass indicate that the tropical- \nstorm-force wind field is very small, only extending up to 30 n mi \nfrom the center. The last pass of the aircraft through the center \nsuggested that Simon has fallen below hurricane strength, and the \npressure has risen to about 991 mb. The initial intensity is \nestimated to be around 55 kt based on a combination of the aircraft \ndata and various satellite fixes. Satellite images show that Simon \nis producing a concentrated area of deep convection over the center \nthat has been increasing in coverage over the past few hours.\n \nThe compact storm is moving southwestward at about 4 kt. The models \nsuggest that Simon will move even slower or possibly stall over the \nnext day or so as it remains caught in weak steering currents. \nHowever, a turn to the northwest seems likely on Friday when the \nsystem moves on the east side of a deep-layer cut off low. The NHC \ntrack forecast has been nudged to the left of the previous one, \ntoward the latest HCCA and GDMI guidance.\n \nSimon has weakened at a rapid rate of about 40 kt over the past 24 \nhours. This highlights how challenging it is to predict intensity \nchanges in very compact systems like this one.  The environmental \nconditions appear generally favorable for the next 12 to 24 hours, \nso little change in strength is predicted in the short term. \nHowever, after that time, a notable increase in southwesterly \nvertical wind shear and intrusion of dry air should cause the system \nto decay. This forecast is quite a bit lower than the previous one \ngiven the lower initial intensity and trending toward the middle of \nthe guidance envelope. In fact, it would not be surprising if Simon \nweakens faster than shown here.\n \nKey Messages:\n \n1. Interests in Baja California Sur should continue to closely\nmonitor the latest updates as Simon is expected to pass near or\nwest of that area this weekend.\n \n2. Large swells will likely affect portions of the coast of\nwest-central Mexico and Baja California Sur over the next few days.\nThese swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current\nconditions.\n \n \nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n \nINIT  15/0300Z 19.1N 108.6W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 12H  15/1200Z 19.0N 108.5W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 24H  16/0000Z 19.1N 108.6W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 36H  16/1200Z 19.7N 109.1W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 48H  17/0000Z 20.8N 110.3W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 60H  17/1200Z 21.7N 111.2W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 72H  18/0000Z 22.8N 112.3W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 96H  19/0000Z 24.6N 113.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n120H  20/0000Z 26.6N 114.8W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n \n"}