{"msg": "550\nAXNT20 KNHC 142323\nTWDAT\nTropical Weather Discussion\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n0015 UTC Thu Oct 15 2026\nTropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America\nGulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South\nAmerica, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the\nEquator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite\nimagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.\nBased on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through \n2300 UTC.\n...TROPICAL WAVES...\nAn eastern Atlantic tropical wave is analyzed along 45W from 10N \nto 18N, moving westward near 10 kt. No significant convection is\nnoted near the wave.\nAn Atlantic tropical wave is along a position 57W, S of 20N, moving\nwestward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered showers are within 150 nm east of\nthe wave from 10N to 12N.\n...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...\nThe monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic near 11N15W and \nextends to 06.5N22W, where it transitions to the ITCZ and\ncontinues on to 04.5N35W to near 08N56W. Scattered moderate \nisolated strong convection is from 02.5N to 09.5N between 21W and\n41W. \n...GULF OF AMERICA...\nA high pressure ridge extends from a 1020 mb high center that \nis over the southeastern U.S. southwestward to the western Gulf, \nwhile an old frontal boundary extends from the Straits of Florida \nto just N of the Yucatan Channel, where a few clusters of showers\nare present. Recent satellite scatterometer data along with buoy \nobservations reveal mostly moderate east winds south of 28N and \neast of 91W, and moderate to fresh east to southeast winds west of\n91W. Light to gentle winds east to southeast winds are elsewhere.\nSeas are in the range of 3 to 5 ft, except for slightly lower \nseas of 1 to 3 ft over the northern Gulf. \nFor the forecast, high pressure will dominate the Gulf region \nthrough Fri producing a gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow and \nslight to moderate seas. A cold front is forecast to enter the \nnorthwest Gulf late Fri, and reach from southwest Florida to the \ncentral Bay of Campeche by late Sat. Fresh to strong winds and \nmoderate to rough seas will follow the front, with gales possible \nover the west-central Gulf by early Sat morning, and over the SW \nGulf by Sat afternoon. Rough to very rough seas are expected with \nthe strongest winds. Gale conditions are forecast to persist over \nthe SW Gulf trough Sun. \n...CARIBBEAN SEA...\nA mid-level low located south-southwest over the NW Caribbean and\nYucatan Channel continues to sustain scattered showers and \nisolated thunderstorms over the waters from Cuba southward to the\nGulf of Honduras, while a mid to upper- level low over the \ncentral Caribbean continues to support scattered showers and \nthunderstorms over Hispaniola and the central Caribbean waters \nbetween 69 W and 79W. Latest satellite scatterometer data reveals \na wide swath of fresh to strong east to southeast winds over the \nwaters southwest of Haiti roughly from 14N to 18N between 72W and \n77W. A weak low of 1010 mb is analyzed in the southwestern \nCaribbean near 12.5N80W. A trough extends from the low northward \nto just southwest of Jamaica. Scattered showers and thunderstorms \nare seen from 11N to 17N between 75W and 79W. Moderate to fresh \ntrade winds prevail across central and west-central portions of \nthe basin between 69W and 81W, to the north and northeast of the \nwestern Caribbean low pressure. Seas are 4 to 6 ft in this region.\nElsewhere moderate or weaker trades and seas of 2 to 4 ft \nprevail.\nFor the forecast, high pressure N of area will combine with the \nColombian low to support moderate to fresh trade winds offshore \nColombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela through the upcoming \nweekend, with locally rough seas offshore Colombia. Moderate or \nweaker winds and slight to moderate seas will prevail elsewhere. \nMoisture associated with an uper-level trough over the central \nCaribbean will reach the NW Caribbean on Thu, keeping the chances \nof showers and thunderstorms across the basin. Gusty winds and \nlocally rough seas will be associated with this convective \nactivity. \n...ATLANTIC OCEAN...\nSurface ridging anchored by a 1020 mb in northern Alabama reaches\nsouthward and southeastern to across the waters just north of the\nBahamas and to 65W. A trough, an old frontal boundary, extends \nfrom 31N61W, to 28N70W, to the central Bahamas and to the Straits\nof Florida. Scattered showers are within 90 nm west of 65W. To \nthe east, a 1015 mb low is centered near 25N67W, with a trough \nextending northeastward to 31N58W. An area of scattered moderate \nconvection is evident within 75 nm of the low. This activity is \nahead of an upper shortwave trough that is approaching from the \nNW. \nOver the eastern Atlantic, a weak 1012 mb low is near 21N36W as \ndetected in recent satellite scatterometer satellite data. A \ntrough extends from the low north-northwestward to 28N40W. A \nsmall mid to upper-level low moving west-southwestward is seen in \nwater vapor imagery near 25N41W while a larger upper-level low \nmoving westward is seen near 19N51W. Scattered showers and \nthunderstorms are noted from 22N to 27N between 30W and the \ntrough. A tight gradient between the trough and high pressure to \nits north has resulted in an area of fresh to strong east to \nsoutheast winds that covers the water roughly from 20N to 27N \nbetween 29W and 36W. Seas are in the range of 8 to 11 ft within \nthis area of winds. The remainder subtropical central and eastern \nAtlantic is under the influence of the Azores High, which is \ngenerally supporting moderate to fresh northeast winds and \nmoderate seas to 7 ft between the coast of NW Africa and 24W, \nincluding the waters adjacent to the Canary Islands. Moderate or \nweaker winds along with slight to moderate seas are elsewhere \nnorth of 20N and west of 24W.\nFor the forecast west of 55W, a band of showers and a few thunderstorms,\nassociated with an old frontal boundary, extends from 28N68W \nacross the NW Bahamas and SE Florida into the Straits of Florida. \nMoisture and associated weather with this feature will move \nnorthward through at least Thu. A cold front will reach the NE \nwaters on Fri with little change in winds and seas. A stronger \ncold front will move into the waters off northeast Florida by late\nFri night into early Sat morning, and reach from near Bermuda to \nSouth Florida by late Sat. Strong to near-gale force winds and \nrough seas will follow the front. \n", "title": "Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion", "id": "1218805120706215939", "issued": "2026-10-14T00:15:00Z", "wmo": "AXNT20", "source": "NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center, received via the National Weather Wire Service", "page": "https://hurricane.terrapin.com/text/1218805120706215939"}