{"msg": "970\nAXPZ20 KNHC 142147\nTWDEP\nTropical Weather Discussion\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n2205 UTC Wed Oct 14 2026\nTropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from\n03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and\nfrom the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following\ninformation is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,\nradar, and meteorological analysis.\nBased on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through\n2130 UTC.\n...SPECIAL FEATURES...\nHurricane Simon is centered near 19.3N 108.3W at 2100 UTC, \nmoving southwest at 3 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is \n989 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 65 kt with gusts to 80 \nkt. Peak seas are near 18 ft. Simon remains a small system, with \nnortherly vertical wind shear currently weakening the system and\npushing convection to the south of center. Scattered to locally \nnumerous moderate isolated strong convection is within 150 nm S \nand SW of the center. The hurricane is moving slowly \nsouthwestward within very weak steering currents. This will \nlikely cause the system to meander well offshore of west- central\nMexico during the next day or so with little change in intensity\nforecast. By Thu evening, a northwestward or north- \nnorthwestward turn is expected to commence. Interests in Baja \nCalifornia Sur should continue to closely monitor the latest \nupdates. Watches or warnings could be required for portions of \nBaja California Sur over the next day or two. Large swells \ngenerated by Simon will likely affect portions of the coast of \nwest- central Mexico and Baja California Sur over the next \nseveral days. These swells are likely to cause large and powerful\nsurf and life- threatening rip current conditions. Please \nconsult products from your local weather office.\nPlease read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National\nHurricane Center at website - \nhttps://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest \nSimon NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at \nwww.hurricanes.gov for more details.\nTropical Storm Trudy is centered near 11.9N 100.0W at 2100 UTC, \nmoving west-northwest at 8 kt. Estimated minimum central \npressure is 997 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 55 kt with \ngusts to 65 kt. Peak seas are estimated at around 20 ft. Scattered\nto numerous moderate to strong convection is noted from 10N to \n16N between 97W and 103W. Trudy is forecast to continue on a \ngeneral northwestward to west-northwestward motion the next few \ndays. Trudy is expected to rapidly intensify and should become a \nhurricane within 24 hours, reach major hurricane status somewhere\naround 48 hours and continue to intensify for around 60-72 hours\nbefore starting a weakening trend. Trudy is forecast to be a major\nhurricane as it approaches the coast of southwestern and west- \ncentral Mexico late this week and into the weekend. There is an \nincreasing risk of wind, rain, and storm surge impacts, and \nwatches could be required for a portion of these areas later \ntoday or tonight. Swells generated by Trudy will affect portions \nof the coast of southwestern Mexico Thu into the weekend, and \nsouthern Baja California later this weekend. These swells are \nlikely to cause large and powerful surf and life- threatening rip\ncurrent conditions. Please consult products from your local \nweather office.\nPlease read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National\nHurricane Center at website - \nhttps://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest \nTrudy NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at \nwww.hurricanes.gov for more details.\n...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...\nThe monsoon trough extends from 12N73W to 10N79W to 10.5N92W, \nthen resumes from near 08N101W to 05N112W. The ITCZ extends from \n05N112W to 03N127W to beyond 08N140W. Scattered moderate \nisolated strong convection is noted from 03.5N to 08.5N between \n83W and 94W, and from 00N to 04.5N between 99W and 114W. \nScattered moderate to strong convection is noted from 00N to \n07N W of 134W.\n...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...\nPlease see the Special Features section above for information on \nHurricane Simon and Tropical Storm Trudy.\nAside from conditions associated with Simon and Trudy, moderate\nto locally fresh N to NE winds prevail across the waters west of\nBaja California and extend to the Revillagigedo Islands. Seas \nare in the 6 to 8 ft range in merging SW and NW swell. Fresh \nnortherly winds, and moderate seas to 6 ft are over the northern \nGulf of California and spread through the Tiburon Basin. Gentle \nto moderate winds, and slight to moderate seas, are over the \nremainder of the Gulf of California. Fresh N to NE winds continue\nto spill our of the Gulf of Tehuantepec and extend southwestward\nto the northern periphery of Trudy. Seas to 8 ft and greater \nextend to the north of Trudy to 15N between 96W and 100W. Light \nto gentle winds, and moderate seas, are noted elsewhere. \nScattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms associated with \nTrudy are within 30 nm of the coasts from Chiapas to central  \nGuerrero.\nFor the forecast, Hurricane Simon will drift slowly S to SW\nthrough Thu, reaching near 19.1N 108.4W Thu afternoon, then \nbegin to move north-northwestward, reaching near 20.3N 109.5W \nFri afternoon, where it will weaken to a tropical storm, then\nreach near 22.8N 111.5W Sat afternoon, near 24.9N 113.2W Sun\nafternoon as a tropical depression, then reach near 26.7N 114.2W\nas a remnant low. To the E, Tropical Storm Trudy will move to\nnear 12.5N 100.8W tonight as it strengthens to a hurricane, \nreach near 13.2N 101.4W Thu afternoon, near 14.0N 101.7W Thu\nnight, near 14.9N 102.0W Fri afternoon as a major hurricane, and\nnear 16.9N 103.3W Sat afternoon. Trudy will then begin to weaken\nand veer more northwestward, reaching near 18.8N 105.3W Sun \nafternoon and near 19.4N 107.2W Mon afternoon. Elsewhere rough \nseas in NW swell west of Baja California will gradually diminish \nthrough Thu. A Gulf of Tehuantepec gap wind event is expected \nlate this week through the upcoming weekend as high pressure \nbuilds behind a cold front moving across the Gulf of America,\nwith gale-force winds possible Sat night.\n...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, \nAND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...\nWinds and seas continue to gradually diminish across the outer \noffshore waters to the southwest of Guatemala as Trudy moves\nwestward and away from the area. Moderate easterly gap winds\nextend across the Papagayo region to near 87W. Gentle to \nmoderate winds, and moderate seas to 6 ft in SW swell prevail \nover the remainder of the offshore waters. Scattered showers and\nthunderstorms have develop across the near and offshore waters\nfrom Panama to Nicaragua.\nFor the forecast, a weak pressure gradient will support moderate\nor lighter winds, and moderate seas dominated by SW swell across\nmuch of the forecast waters through the remainder of the week \nand into the weekend. New SW swell will bring rough seas over the\nwaters south and west of the Galapagos Islands Fri through Sat. \n...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...\nModerate to fresh N to NE winds and rough seas cover the waters \nfrom 14N to 26N and west of 115W, where an old cold front has\nrecently dissipated. Seas are 9 to 9 ft n NW swell across this\narea. Light to gentle winds and moderate to rough seas in \nmerging NW and SW swell generally prevail S of 20N W of 100W, \nexcept for moderate winds near the equator. Scattered showers and\nthunderstorms are within 210 nm S of the monsoon trough between\n100W and 115W. \nFor the forecast, large SW swell moving into the regional waters\ntoday will raise seas to 8 ft and greater to the S of 07N and \nwest of 105W over the next couple of days, followed by another \npulse of large S-SW swell arriving into the waters W of 100W Wed \nnight.\n", "title": "Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion", "id": "1218786208197148675", "issued": "2026-10-14T22:05:00Z", "wmo": "AXPZ20", "source": "NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center, received via the National Weather Wire Service", "page": "https://hurricane.terrapin.com/text/1218786208197148675"}