{"msg": "127\nAXNT20 KNHC 141743\nTWDAT\nTropical Weather Discussion\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n1815 UTC Wed Oct 14 2026\nTropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America\nGulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South\nAmerica, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the\nEquator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite\nimagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.\nBased on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through \n1730 UTC.\n...TROPICAL WAVES...\nAn eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis near 39W from 10N\nto 20N, moving westward near 10 kt. Scattered showers are west of\nthe wave axis from 13N to 17N between 40W and 44W.\nA central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along a position  \nfrom 20N55W to 08N56W. It is moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. \nScattered showers are within 120 nm west of the wave from\n08N to 09N.\n...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...\nThe monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic near 11N15W and \nextends to 08N20W, where it transitions to the ITCZ to 05N31W\nto 06N45W and to near 08N56W. Scattered moderate to isolated\nstrong convection is within 240 nm north of the ITCZ between \n27W-33W. Scattered moderate convection is within 120 nm south of\nthe ITCZ between 18W-22W and between 24W-28W.\n...GULF OF AMERICA...\nA high pressure ridge extends from a 1020 mb high center that \nis over eastern Tennessee southwestward to the western Gulf while\nan old frontal boundary extends from the Straits of Florida to \njust west of the western tip of Cuba. Recent scatterometer \nsatellite data along with buoy observations reveal mostly moderate\neast winds south of 27N east of 91W, and moderate to fresh east \nto southeast winds west of 91W. Light to gentle winds east to \nsoutheast winds are elsewhere. Seas are in the range of 3 to 5 ft,\nexcept for slightly lower seas of 2 to 4 ft over the northern \nGulf. \nFor the forecast, the aforementioned ridge will dominate the Gulf\nregion through Fri producing gentle to moderate E to SE winds and\nslight to moderate seas. A cold front is forecast to enter the \nnorthwest Gulf Fri evening, and reach from southwest Florida to \nthe central Bay of Campeche by late Sat. Fresh to strong winds and\nmoderate to rough seas will follow the front, with gales possible\nover the west-central Gulf by Sat morning, and over the SW Gulf \nby late Sat. Rough to very rough seas are expected with the \nstrongest winds. Gale conditions are forecast to persist over the \nSW Gulf trough Sun. \n...CARIBBEAN SEA...\nA mid-level low located south-southwest of the western tip of \nCuba continues to sustain scattered showers and isolated \nthunderstorms south of Cuba adjacent waters, and in the Gulf of \nHonduras while a mid to upper-level low over the central Caribbean\ncontinues to support scattered to numerous showers and \nthunderstorms over Hispaniola and its adjacent waters, including \nthe waters just south of the Mona Passage. This activity reaches \nsouthward to near 14N and east of 75W to 66W. Latest scatterometer\nsatellite data reveals a wide swath of fresh to strong east to \nsoutheast winds over the waters southwest of Haiti roughly from \n14N to 18N between 72W and 77W. A container ship, with caller ID \n\"OXK02\"-Olivia Maersk, reported southeast winds of 35 kt near \n17.5N75W at 15Z as a gust front racing to the northwest generated \nby the convective activity south of Hispaniola passed over it. A \nweak low of 1010 mb is analyzed in the southwestern Caribbean near\n13N79W. A trough extends from the low north- northeastward to \njust south of Jamaica. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are \nseen from 11N to 17N between 75W and 79W. Isolated showers and \nthunderstorms are elsewhere west of 75W. A 60 nm wide area of \nfresh to strong east to southeast winds is south of Haiti between \n71W and 73W. Similar winds are just offshore the coast of Colombia\nbetween 73W and 74W. Recent scatterometer satellite data reveals \nmoderate or weaker trades elsewhere, except for trades of moderate\nto fresh speeds north and northeast of the western Caribbean low \npressure. Seas across the basin are mostly in the range of 3 to 5 \nft, except for slightly higher seas of 4 to 6 ft from 11N to 18N \nbetween 76W and 80W and lower seas of 2 to 4 ft north of 15N \nbetween 64W and 85W and in the Gulf of Honduras and in the \napproaches to the Windward Passage.\nFor the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure \nover the western Atlantic and relatively lower pressure in \nnorthern South America will support moderate to fresh trade winds \noffshore Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela through the \nupcoming weekend, with locally rough seas offshore Colombia. \nModerate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas will prevail \nelsewhere. Moisture associated with a mid to upper-level low over \nthe central Caribbean will reach the northwestern Caribbean on \nThu, keeping the chances of showers and thunderstorms across the \nbasin.\n...ATLANTIC OCEAN...\nSurface ridging anchored by a 1020 mb in eastern Tennessee \nreaches southward and southeastern to across the waters just north\nof the Bahamas. A trough, an old frontal boundary, extends from a\n1014 mb low well north of the area near 35N55W southwestward to \n31N62W, to 28N70W, to the central Bahamas and to the Straits of \nFlorida. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are within 30 to 60 \nnm northwest of the trough west of 75W, and within 30 nm either \nside of the trough between 75W and 68W. To the east, a 1015 mb low\nis centered near 25N67W, with a trough extending northeastward to\n31N58W, and another trough extending from the low southwestward \nto near 22N71W. An area of scattered moderate convection is \nevident over the north-central waters north of about 28N and \nbetween 45W and 49W. This activity is ahead of an upper shortwave \ntrough that is approaching from the NW. \nOver the eastern Atlantic, a weak 1013 mb low is near 20N35W as \ndetected by a couple of recent scatterometer satellite data \npasses. A trough extends from the low north- northwestward to \n28N38W. A small mid to upper-level low moving west-southwestward \nis seen in water vapor imagery near 25N41W while a larger upper- \nlevel low moving westward is seen near 19N51W. Mostly mid to \nupper-level clouds broken to overcast clouds are present to the \neast and northeast of these features. Embedded scattered showers \nand isolated thunderstorms are noted from 23N to 28N between 30W \nand the trough that extends from the 1013 mb low. A tight \ngradient between the trough and high pressure to its north has \nresulted in an area of fresh to strong east to southeast winds\nthat covers the water roughly from 20N to 26N between 30W and \n33W, and also from 23N to 26N between 33W and 37W. Seas are in \nthe range of 8 to 11 ft within this area of winds. The remainder \nsubtropical central and eastern Atlantic is under the influence of\nthe Azores High, which is generally supporting moderate to fresh \nnortheast winds and moderate seas to 6 ft between the coast of NW \nAfrica and 24W, including the waters adjacent to the Canary \nIslands. Seas to a maximum of around 6 ft are with these winds as \nindicated by an overnight altimeter satellite data pass. Moderate\nor weaker winds along with slight to moderate seas are elsewhere \nnorth of 20N and west of 24W.\nFor the forecast west of 55W, moisture associated with the\nscattered shower and thunderstorm activity that is northwest\nof the trough, the old frontal boundary, that extends from 31N62W\nto the Straits of Florida will advect northward through at least \nThu. A cold front will reach waters east of northeast Florida on \nFri, with little change in winds and seas. A stronger cold front \nis expected to move across the waters off northeast Florida by \nlate Fri night into early Sat morning, then reach from Bermuda to \nSouth Florida by late Sat. Strong to near-gale force winds and \nrough seas will follow the front. \n", "title": "Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion", "id": "1218738419940425731", "issued": "2026-10-14T18:15:00Z", "wmo": "AXNT20", "source": "NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center, received via the National Weather Wire Service", "page": "https://hurricane.terrapin.com/text/1218738419940425731"}