{"msg": "307\nAXPZ20 KNHC 141551\nTWDEP \nTropical Weather Discussion\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n1605 UTC Wed Oct 14 2026\nTropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from\n03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and\nfrom the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following\ninformation is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,\nradar, and meteorological analysis.\nBased on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through\n1500 UTC.\n...SPECIAL FEATURES...\nHurricane Simon is centered near 19.7N 108.1W at 1500 UTC, \nmoving southwest at 2 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is \n975 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 80 kt with gusts to 100 \nkt. Peak seas are near 18 ft. Simon remains a small system, with\nrecent satellite scatterometer data showing winds to 20 kt only\nextending 90 nm from center. Scattered to numerous moderate to \nstrong convection is within 75 nm W and SW of the center. The \nhurricane is moving slowly southwestward within very weak \nsteering currents. This will likely cause the system to meander \nwell offshore of west- central Mexico during the next couple of \ndays with little change in intensity forecast. By Thu evening, a \nnorthwestward or north- northwestward turn is expected to \ncommence. Interests in west- central Mexico and Baja California \nSur should continue to closely monitor the latest updates. \nAdditional watches or warnings could be required over the next \nday or two. Large swells generated by Simon will likely affect \nportions of the coast of west- central Mexico and Baja California\nSur over the next several days. These swells are likely to cause\nlarge and powerful surf and life- threatening rip current \nconditions. Please consult products from your local weather \noffice.\nPlease read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National\nHurricane Center at website - \nhttps://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest \nSimon NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at \nwww.hurricanes.gov for more details.\nTropical Storm Trudy is centered near 11.5N 99.5W at 1500 UTC, \nmoving west-northwest at 11 kt. Estimated minimum central \npressure is 998 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 50 kt with \ngusts to 60 kt. Peak seas are estimated at near 20 ft. Scattered \nto numerous moderate to strong convection is noted from 10N to \n15.5N between 94W and 102W. Trudy is forecast to continue on a \ngeneral northwestward to west- northwestward motion the next few \ndays. Trudy is expected to rapidly intensify and should become a \nhurricane within 24 hours, reach major hurricane status somewhere\naround 48 hours and continue to intensify for around 60-72 hours\nbefore starting a weakening trend. Trudy is forecast to be a \nmajor hurricane as it approaches the coast of southwestern and \nwest- central Mexico late this week and into the weekend. \nResidents of southwestern and west-central Mexico should continue\nto closely monitor the progress of Trudy, and be ready to \npossibly implement their hurricane plan. There is an increasing \nrisk of wind, rain, and storm surge impacts, and watches could be\nrequired for a portion of these areas later today. Swells \ngenerated by Trudy will affect portions of the coast of \nsouthwestern Mexico Thu into the weekend, and southern Baja \nCalifornia later this weekend. These swells are likely to cause \nlarge and powerful surf and life- threatening rip current \nconditions. Please consult products from your local weather \noffice.\nPlease read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National\nHurricane Center at website - \nhttps://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest \nTrudy NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at \nwww.hurricanes.gov for more details.\n...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...\nThe monsoon trough extends from 12N72.5W to 09.5N79W to 10.5N91W,\nthen resumes from near 08N101W to 05N112W. The ITCZ extends from\n05N112W to 04N122W to 07N135W to beyond 06.5N140W. Scattered \nmoderate isolated strong convection is noted from 04N to 08.5N \nbetween 83W and 93W, and from 00N to 04.5N between 99W and 114W.\nScattered moderate to strong convection is noted from 00N to\n07.5N W of 134W.\n...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...\nPlease see the Special Features section above for information on \nHurricane Simon and Tropical Storm Trudy.\nAside from conditions associated with Simon and Trudy, moderate\nto locally fresh northerly winds prevail across the waters west \nof Baja California and extend to the Revillagigedo Islands. Seas\nare in the 6 to 9 ft range in merging SW and NW swell. Fresh to \nstrong northerly winds, and moderate seas to 6 ft are over the \nnorthern Gulf of California and spread through the Tiburon Basin.\nGentle to moderate winds, and slight to moderate seas, are over \nthe remainder of the Gulf of California. Fresh NE winds extend \nacross the Gulf of Tehuantepec southwestward to the northern \nperiphery of Trudy. Seas to 8 ft and greater extend to the north\nof Trudy to 14.5N between 97W and 99W. Light to gentle winds, \nand moderate seas, are noted elsewhere. Scattered to numerous\nshowers and thunderstorms associated with Trudy are within 45 nm\nof the coasts Oaxaca and SE Guerrero.\nFor the forecast, Hurricane Simon will drift slowly S to SW\nthrough Thu, reaching near 19.2N 108.3W Thu afternoon, then begin\nto move north-northwestward, reaching near 19.9N 108.7W Fri \nmorning, near 21.2N 109.7W Fri afternoon, and weaken to a \ntropical storm near 22.6N 110.6W Sat morning, then gradually\nweaken to a remnant low near 26.9N 113.6W Mon morning. To the E,\nTropical Storm Trudy will move to 12.1N 100.4W late this \nafternoon, strengthen to a hurricane near 12.9N 101.2W Thu \nmorning, reach near 13.7N 101.7W late Thu afternoon, near 14.6N \n102.0W Fri morning, near 15.5N 102.4W late Fri afternoon as a \nmajor hurricane, and near 16.5N 103.0W Sat morning. Trudy will \nthen begin to weaken and reach near 18.4N 105.0W Sun morning and \nnear 19.9N 106.9W Mon morning. Elsewhere rough seas in NW swell \nwest of Baja California will gradually diminish today through \nThu. A Gulf of Tehuantepec gap wind event is expected late this \nweek through the upcoming weekend as high pressure builds behind \na cold front moving across the Gulf of America. \n...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, \nAND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...\nWinds and seas continue to gradually diminish across the outer \noffshore waters to the southwest of Guatemala as Trudy moves\nwestward and away from the area. Gentle to moderate winds, and \nmoderate seas to 6 ft in SW swell prevail over the remainder of \nthe offshore waters. Showers and thunderstorms impacting the\nwaters of of 85W since yesterday have diminished significantly\nthis morning, with clusters of moderate convection offshore of\neastern Costa Rica and Nicaragua.\nFor the forecast, winds and seas well offshore of Guatemala  \nwill diminish today as Trudy moves further from the area. New \nSW swell will bring rough seas over the waters south of the \nGalapagos Islands Fri and Sat. Otherwise, a weak pressure \ngradient will support moderate or lighter winds, and moderate \nseas dominated by SW swell across much of the forecast waters \nthrough the remainder of the week and into the weekend.\n...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...\nModerate to fresh N to NE winds and rough seas cover the waters \nfrom 15N to 27N and west of 115W, where an old cold front has\nrecently dissipated. Seas are 7 to 9 ft n NW swell across this\narea. Light to gentle winds and moderate to rough seas in \nmerging NW and SW swell generally prevail S of 18N W of 100W, \nexcept for moderate winds near the equator. Scattered showers and\nisolated thunderstorms are within 180 nm either side of a \nsurface trough S of 15N and along 127W. \nFor the forecast, large SW swell moving into the regional waters\nthis morning will raise seas to 8 ft and greater to the S of 07N and\nwest of 105W over the next couple of days, followed by another \npulse of large S-SW swell arriving into the waters W of 100W Wed \nnight.\n", "title": "Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion", "id": "1218716210989039619", "issued": "2026-10-14T16:05:00Z", "wmo": "AXPZ20", "source": "NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center, received via the National Weather Wire Service", "page": "https://hurricane.terrapin.com/text/1218716210989039619"}