{"id": "1218704058459258883", "title": "Tropical Cyclone Discussion", "adv_date": "2026-10-14T15:00:00Z", "msg": "866\nWTPZ45 KNHC 141449\nTCDEP5\n \nHurricane Simon Discussion Number  29\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP202026\n800 AM MST Wed Oct 14 2026\n \nFirst-light visible imagery indicates that Simon has continued to\nlose organization during the last several hours. The low-level\ncenter is now located near the northern edge of the convective\novercast due to the effects of northerly shear. However, there is\nstill no microwave imagery of the storm to better diagnose the\ninternal structure. The satellite intensity estimates have trended\ndown, and based on this the initial intensity is reduced to a\npossibly generous 80 kt.\n \nThe hurricane continues drifting southwest or 230/2 kt. For the\nnext day or two, Simon is likely to continue drifting southwestward\nin an area of light steering currents, with the center remaining\nwell offshore. After that time, the track forecast becomes less\nconfident. While all of the global models agree that a mid- to\nupper-level trough should form west of Baja California after 48 h,\nthere is poor agreement on the track forecasts for Simon during\nthis time. The GFS and the regional hurricane models forecast that\nSimon will continue moving southward or southwestward through 72 h,\nfollowed by a slow movement toward the northwest. The remainder of\nthe guidance favors a northwestward or north-northwestward turn\nbetween 36-48 h, with that motion continuing through the end of the\nforecast period. The new track forecast follows the latter scenario \nin anticipation that the center will try to follow convective bursts \ndisplaced to the north by southerly shear. The new forecast track is \nagain adjusted west of the previous track, but it lies to the east \nof the HCCA corrected consensus and the Google DeepMind ensemble \nmean.\n \nSimon's small size makes it susceptible to intensity fluctuations\nbased on the state of its compact inner core and small changes in\nthe environmental conditions. The current northerly shear is\nforecast to diminish during the next 12-24 h, which may allow some\nmodest re-intensification. By 36 h, increasing southerly to\nsouthwesterly upper-level flow between the trough to the northwest\nand Tropical Storm Trudy to the southeast should cause significant\nshear and aid in the entrainment of dry air. This should cause\nsteady weakening, with Simon expected to weaken to a tropical storm\nas it approaches Baja California Sur. The system is likely to decay\nto a remnant low by 120 h as the shear and dry air cause the\nconvection to dissipate.\n \nSimon continues to be a challenging storm to forecast, and\nconfidence remains lower than normal given the weak steering,\nproximity to land, very small size, and significant model spread.\n \nKey Messages:\n \n1. While Simon is no longer expected to bring hurricane conditions\nto Las Islas Marias, interests in west-central Mexico and Baja\nCalifornia Sur should continue to closely monitor the latest\nupdates. Watches or warnings could be required for portions of Baja\nCalifornia Sur over the next day or two.\n \n2. Large swells will likely affect portions of the coast of\nwest-central Mexico and Baja California Sur over the next several\ndays. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current\nconditions.\n \n \nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n \nINIT  14/1500Z 19.7N 108.1W   80 KT  90 MPH\n 12H  15/0000Z 19.5N 108.3W   85 KT 100 MPH\n 24H  15/1200Z 19.3N 108.3W   85 KT 100 MPH\n 36H  16/0000Z 19.2N 108.3W   80 KT  90 MPH\n 48H  16/1200Z 19.9N 108.7W   75 KT  85 MPH\n 60H  17/0000Z 21.2N 109.7W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 72H  17/1200Z 22.6N 110.6W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 96H  18/1200Z 24.5N 112.2W   35 KT  40 MPH\n120H  19/1200Z 26.9N 113.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n \n"}