{"msg": "551\nAXPZ20 KNHC 140911\nTWDEP\nTropical Weather Discussion\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n1005 UTC Wed Oct 14 2026\nTropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from\n03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and\nfrom the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following\ninformation is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,\nradar, and meteorological analysis.\nBased on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through\n0900 UTC.\n...SPECIAL FEATURES...\nHurricane Simon is centered near 19.8N 107.9W at 14/0900 UTC,\nmoving southwest at 3 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is\n969 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 90 kt with gusts to 110\nkt. Peak seas are near 20 ft. Numerous moderate to strong \nconvection is within 30 nm of the center. Scattered to numerous \nmoderate and isolated strong convection is elsewhere from 18N to \n21N between 106W and 109W. The hurricane is moving slowly \nsouthwestward within very weak steering currents. This will \nlikely cause the system to meander well offshore of west- central\nMexico during the next couple of days. Little change in \nintensity is forecast the next couple of days. Simon could be \nnear Las Islas Marias on Thursday, where a Hurricane Watch \nremains in effect. Interests in west-central Mexico and Baja \nCalifornia Sur should continue to closely monitor the latest \nupdates. Additional watches or warnings could be required over \nthe next day or two. Large swells generated by Simon will likely\naffect portions of the coast of west- central Mexico and Baja \nCalifornia Sur over the next several days. These swells are \nlikely to cause large and powerful surf and life- threatening rip\ncurrent conditions. Please consult products from your local \nweather office.\nPlease read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National\nHurricane Center at website - \nhttps://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest \nSimon NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at \nwww.hurricanes.gov for more details.\nTropical Storm Trudy is centered near 11.1N 99.0W at 14/0900\nUTC, moving west-northwest at 9 kt. Estimated minimum central\npressure is 1002 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 45 kt with\ngusts to 55 kt. Peak seas are estimated at near 17 ft. Scattered\nto numerous moderate to strong convection is noted from 10N to \n15N between 95W and 102W. Trudy is forecast to continue on a \ngeneral northwestward to west- northwestward motion the next few\ndays. Trudy is expected to rapidly intensify and should become a\nhurricane within 24 h, reach major hurricane status somewhere \naround 48 h and continue to intensify for around 60-72 h before \nstarting a weakening trend. Trudy is forecast to be a major \nhurricane as it approaches the coast of southwestern and west- \ncentral Mexico late this week and into the weekend. There is an \nincreasing risk of wind, rain, and storm surge impacts, and \nwatches could be required for a portion of these areas later \ntoday. Swells generated by Trudy will affect portions of the \ncoast of southwestern Mexico the end of the week into the \nweekend, and southern Baja California later this weekend. These \nswells are likely to cause large and powerful surf and life- \nthreatening rip current conditions. Please consult products from \nyour local weather office.\nPlease read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National\nHurricane Center at website - \nhttps://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest \nTrudy NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at \nwww.hurricanes.gov for more details.\n...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...\nThe monsoon trough extends from 10N85W to 10N89W, then resumes \nfrom near 08N103W to 05N112W. The ITCZ extends from 05N112W to \n05N125W to 07N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong \nconvection is noted from 03N to 08N between 83W and 90W, and from\n00N to 06N between 100W and 132W. \n...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...\nPlease see the Special Features section above for information on \nHurricane Simon and Tropical Storm Trudy.\nAside from conditions associated with Simon and Trudy, moderate\nwinds prevail across the waters west of Baja California, where \nseas are in the 6 to 8 ft range in merging Sw and NW swell. \nFresh to locally strong winds, and moderate seas, are over the\nnorthern Gulf of California. Gentle to moderate winds, and \nslight to moderate seas, are over the remainder of the Gulf of \nCalifornia. Fresh winds extend across the Gulf of Tehuantepec \nwestward to the northern periphery of Trudy. Light to gentle\nwinds, and moderate seas, are noted elsewhere.  \nFor the forecast, Hurricane Simon is near 19.8N 107.9W at 2 AM \nPDT, and is moving southwest at 3 kt. Maximum sustained winds are\n90 kt with gusts to 110 kt, and the minimum central pressure is \n969 mb. Simon will move to 19.6N 108.0W this afternoon, 19.4N \n108.1W Thu morning, 19.2N 108.3W Thu afternoon, 19.6N 108.5W Fri \nmorning, 20.9N 109.1W Fri afternoon, and weaken to a tropical \nstorm near 22.4N 109.8W Sat morning. Simon will move inland near \n24.6N 111.1W early Sun. Tropical Storm Trudy is near 11.1N 99.0W \nat 2 AM PDT, and is moving west-northwest at 9 kt. Maximum \nsustained winds are 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt, and the minimum \ncentral pressure is 1002 mb. Trudy will move to 11.5N 100.2W this\nafternoon, strengthen to a hurricane near 12.4N 101.3W Thu \nmorning, 13.1N 101.8W Thu afternoon, 14.0N 102.4W Fri morning, \n14.9N 102.9W Fri afternoon, and 16.0N 103.6W Sat morning. Trudy \nwill change little in intensity as it moves to near 18.5N 105.2W \nearly Sun. Elsewhere rough seas in NW swell west of Baja \nCalifornia will gradually diminish today. A Gulf of Tehuantepec \ngap wind event is expected late this week through the upcoming \nweekend as high pressure builds behind a cold front moving across\nthe waters north of the area. \n...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, \nAND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...\nModerate to fresh winds and moderate to rough seas over the \nouter periphery of Trudy dominate the outer offshore waters to \nthe southwest of Guatemala. Gentle to moderate winds, and \nmoderate seas in SW swell prevail over the remainder of the \noffshore waters. \nFor the forecast, moderate to fresh winds and rough seas well \noffshore of Guatemala, on the outer periphery of Tropical Storm \nTrudy, will diminish today as Trudy moves further from the area. \nA set of SW swell will bring rough seas over the waters south of \nthe Galapagos Islands Fri and Sat. Otherwise, a weak pressure \ngradient will support moderate or lighter winds, and moderate \nseas dominated by SW swell across much of the forecast waters \nthrough the remainder of the week and the weekend.\n...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...\nModerate to fresh N to NE winds and rough seas cover the waters \nN of 15N and west of 115W. Light to gentle winds and moderate to\nrough seas in merging NW and SW swell generally prevail S of 18N\nW of 100W, except for moderate winds near the equator. \nFor the forecast, large SW swell will affect the waters S of the\nEquator and west of 105W over the next couple of days, followed \nby another pulse of large S-SW swell arriving into the waters W \nof 100W Wed night.\n", "title": "Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion", "id": "1218637609256026115", "issued": "2026-10-14T10:05:00Z", "wmo": "AXPZ20", "source": "NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center, received via the National Weather Wire Service", "page": "https://hurricane.terrapin.com/text/1218637609256026115"}