{"id": "1218632670597906435", "title": "Tropical Cyclone Discussion", "adv_date": "2026-10-14T09:00:00Z", "msg": "818\nWTPZ45 KNHC 140846\nTCDEP5\n \nHurricane Simon Discussion Number  28\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP202026\n200 AM MST Wed Oct 14 2026\n \nProxy-visible and infrared satellite images of Simon show the tiny\neye of the hurricane has filled during the past few hours. There has\nalso been a warming of the inner core cloud tops, and the central\ndense overcast has become less symmetric. These changes could be the\nresult of some northerly shear affecting Simon as diagnosed by\nUW-CIMSS. There is no recent passive microwave data available to\nassess the internal structure of Simon, but recent scatterometer\ndata and distant radar data from Los Cabos indicate that the\nhurricane remains very small. The initial intensity is lowered\nslightly to 90 kt, in best agreement with the latest Dvorak CI\nnumber (5.0) from TAFB and an earlier 88-kt D-MINT estimate.\n \nThe hurricane is moving slowly southwestward (230/3 kt). In the near \nterm, Simon is expected to remain within very weak steering \ncurrents. Thus, it is likely to meander well offshore of \nwest-central Mexico during the next couple of days, with the model \nconsensus generally favoring a slow southwestward or southward \nmotion through Thursday. From there, the future track will depend on \nthe vertical depth of Simon and its interaction with an upper-level \ntrough over the western United States. This feature should cause \nSimon to turn northward at some point, but there is large spread \namong the track models as to when and where this turn occurs. There \nhas been a substantial westward shift in the long-range track \nguidance, with almost all models now bringing Simon near or west of \nthe Baja California Peninsula at 72-120 h. The NHC forecast has been \nadjusted in the direction of the latest multi-model consensus to \nreflect this trend, but future adjustments will likely be required.\n \nSimon's small size makes it susceptible to intensity fluctuations \nbased on the state of its compact inner core and small changes in \nthe environmental conditions. The hurricane is forecast to drift \nover very warm waters in a fairly weak shear environment during the \nnext day or two. However, the mid-level environmental humidity is \nonly around 50 percent, and even slightly stronger shear than \nforecast could disrupt the core and induce some weakening. The \nofficial NHC forecast shows little net change in the next 24-36 h, \nrecognizing that some of the hurricane regional models show another \nround of strengthening could occur during this period. There is \nhigher confidence that the aforementioned trough will impart \nstronger vertical wind shear over Simon by Friday, which should \ninduce a steady weakening trend through the weekend.\n \nSimon continues to be a challenging storm to forecast, and\nconfidence remains lower than normal given the weak steering,\nproximity to land, very small size, and significant model spread.\n \nKey Messages:\n \n1. Simon could be near Las Islas Marias on Thursday, where a\nHurricane Watch remains in effect. Interests in west-central Mexico\nand Baja California Sur should continue to closely monitor the\nlatest updates. Additional watches or warnings could be required\nover the next day or two.\n \n2. Large swells will likely affect portions of the coast of\nwest-central Mexico and Baja California Sur over the next several\ndays. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current\nconditions.\n \n \nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n \nINIT  14/0900Z 19.8N 107.9W   90 KT 105 MPH\n 12H  14/1800Z 19.6N 108.0W   95 KT 110 MPH\n 24H  15/0600Z 19.4N 108.1W   90 KT 105 MPH\n 36H  15/1800Z 19.2N 108.3W   90 KT 105 MPH\n 48H  16/0600Z 19.6N 108.5W   80 KT  90 MPH\n 60H  16/1800Z 20.9N 109.1W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 72H  17/0600Z 22.4N 109.8W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 96H  18/0600Z 24.6N 111.1W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND\n120H  19/0600Z 27.1N 113.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND\n \n"}