{"msg": "616\nAXPZ20 KNHC 140308\nTWDEP\nTropical Weather Discussion\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n0405 UTC Wed Oct 14 2026\nTropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from\n03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and\nfrom the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following\ninformation is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,\nradar, and meteorological analysis.\nBased on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through\n0300 UTC.\n...SPECIAL FEATURES...\nHurricane Simon is centered near 20.1N 107.6W at 14/0300 UTC, \nmoving west at 2 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 965 \nmb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 95 kt with gusts to 115 kt. \nPeak seas are near 20 ft. Numerous moderate to strong convection \nis within 30 nm of the center. Scattered to numerous moderate and\nisolated strong convection is elsewhere from 18N to 21N between \n106W and 109W. Simon remains a small hurricane, but has started \nto re intensify. Simon is located in an area of weak steering \ncurrents and is forecast to drift southwestward over the next \ncouple of days. Simon could be near Las Islas Marias on \nThursday, where a Hurricane Watch remains in effect. Interests in\nwest- central Mexico and Baja California Sur should continue to \nclosely monitor the latest updates. Additional watches or \nwarnings could be required over the next day or two. Simon is \nexpected to produce rainfall totals of 1 to 2 inches with \nisolated maximum amounts of 3 inches over portions of the states \nof Baja California Sur, Nayarit, and Sinaloa. Large swells\ngenerated by Simon will likely affect portions of the coast of \nwest- central Mexico and Baja California Sur over the next \nseveral days. These swells are likely to cause large and powerful\nsurf and life- threatening rip current conditions. Please \nconsult products from your local weather office.\nPlease read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National\nHurricane Center at website - \nhttps://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest \nSimon NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at \nwww.hurricanes.gov for more details.\nTropical Storm Trudy is centered near 11.2N 97.0W at 14/0300\nUTC, moving northwest at 9 kt. Estimated minimum central\npressure is 1004 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 40 kt with\ngusts to 45 kt. Peak seas are estimated at 13 ft across the N \nsemicircle. Scattered to numerous moderate to strong convection \nis occurring from 09N to 5N between 92W and 100W. The initial \nmotion of Trudy is northwestward, and a general northwestward to \nwest-northwestward motion is forecast through 72 hr. Trudy is \nforecast to reach hurricane intensity within the next 24 hours, \nand is forecast to be a major hurricane as it approaches the \ncoast of southwestern and west-central Mexico late this week and \ninto the weekend. There is an increasing risk of wind, rain, and \nstorm surge impacts, and watches could be required for a portion \nof these areas on Wednesday. Swells generated by Trudy will \naffect portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico the end of \nthe week into the weekend, and southern Baja California later \nthis weekend. These swells are likely to cause large and powerful\nsurf and life- threatening rip current conditions. Please \nconsult products from your local weather office.\nPlease read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National\nHurricane Center at website - \nhttps://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest \nTrudy NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at \nwww.hurricanes.gov for more details.\n...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...\nThe monsoon trough extends from 10N85W to 11N89W, then resumes \nfrom near 08N100W to 05N109W. The ITCZ extends from 05N109W to \n04N125W to 07N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong \nconvection is noted from 03N to 08N E of 86W, and from 00N to \n06N between 100W and 131W. \n...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...\nPlease see the Special Features section above for information on \nHurricane Simon and Tropical Storm Trudy.\nAside from conditions associated with Simon and Trudy, mainly \nmoderate to fresh winds prevail across the waters west of Baja\nCalifornia, where seas are in the 6 to 8 ft range in merging Sw \nand NW swell. Gentle to moderate winds, and slight to moderate\nseas, are over the Gulf of California. Fresh winds extend across\nthe Gulf of Tehuantepec westward to the northern periphery of\nTrudy. \nFor the forecast, Hurricane Simon is near 20.1N 107.6W at 8 PM \nPDT, and is moving west at 2 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 95 \nkt with gusts to 115 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 965 \nmb. Simon will move to 20.1N 107.8W Wed morning, 19.6N 108.2W Wed\nevening, 18.9N 108.5W Thu morning, 19.7N 108.1W Thu evening, \n21.0N 108.0W Fri morning, and weaken to a tropical storm near \n22.3N 108.8W Fri evening. Simon will change little in intensity \nas it moves to near 24.1N 109.7W late Sat. Tropical Storm Trudy \nis near 11.2N 97.0W at 8 PM PDT, and is moving northwest at 9 kt.\nMaximum sustained winds are 40 kt with gusts to 45 kt, and the \nminimum central pressure is 1004 mb. Trudy will move to 11.8N \n98.6W Wed morning, strengthen to a hurricane near 12.6N 100.0W \nWed evening, 13.5N 100.9W Thu morning, 14.3N 101.5W Thu evening, \n15.2N 101.9W Fri morning, and 16.3N 102.5W Fri evening. Trudy \nwill change little in intensity as it moves to near 19.0N 104.4W \nlate Sat. Elsewhere rough seas in NW swell west of Baja \nCalifornia will gradually diminish through early Wed. A Gulf of \nTehuantepec gap wind event is expected late this week through the\nupcoming weekend as high pressure builds behind a cold front \nmoving across the waters north of the area.\n...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, \nAND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...\nFresh to strong winds and rough seas over the outer periphery of\nTrudy dominate the outer offshore waters to the southwest of \nGuatemala. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms also \nprevail across these outer waters S of 14.5N and W of 90W. \nGentle to moderate winds, and moderate seas in SW swell prevail \nover the remainder of the offshore waters. Scattered moderate \nconvection continues across and S of the waters of Costa Rica, \nPanama and Colombia E of 85W.\nFor the forecast, fresh to strong winds and rough seas occurring\nS of 13N, and associated with Tropical Storm Trudy well offshore\nof Guatemala, will diminish through Wed as Trudy moves further \nfrom the area. Otherwise, a weak pressure gradient will support \nmoderate or lighter winds, and moderate seas dominated by SW \nswell across much of the forecast waters through the end of the \nweek. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to remain \nactive across the waters E of 85W tonight. \n...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...\nModerate to fresh N to NE winds and rough seas cover the waters \nN of 18N and west of 115W. Light to gentle winds and moderate to\nrough seas in merging NW and SW swell generally prevail S of 18N\nW of 100W, except for moderate winds near the equator. \nFor the forecast, large SW swell will affect the waters S of the\nEquator and west of 105W over the next couple of days, followed \nby another pulse of large S-SW swell arriving into the waters W \nof 100W Wed night.\n", "title": "Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion", "id": "1218566232654577667", "issued": "2026-10-14T04:05:00Z", "wmo": "AXPZ20", "source": "NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center, received via the National Weather Wire Service", "page": "https://hurricane.terrapin.com/text/1218566232654577667"}