{"id": "1218560025344344067", "title": "Tropical Cyclone Discussion", "adv_date": "2026-10-14T03:00:00Z", "msg": "897\nWTPZ45 KNHC 140236\nTCDEP5\n \nHurricane Simon Discussion Number  27\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP202026\n800 PM MST Tue Oct 13 2026\n \nAfter holding steady for the past 18-24 hours, Simon is\nre-intensifying. The eye of the hurricane has become distinct, and\ndeep convection is more intense and symmetric around the eye. The\ninitial intensity has been increased to 95 kt near a Dvorak\nclassification from TAFB. Although Simon's peak winds appear to have\nincreased significantly, the hurricane remains tiny. The hurricane-\nand tropical-storm-force winds are estimated to only extend up to 10\nand 30 n mi from the center, respectively.\n \nThe compact hurricane is drifting westward off the coast of\nwest-central Mexico. The steering currents are expected to remain\nvery weak for the next couple of days, and most of the models show\nSimon drifting southwestward during that time. By the end of the\nweek and over the weekend, the model solutions diverge\nsignificantly, and the differences appear to be due to the location\nand depth of Simon and a mid- to upper-level trough over the western\nU.S. The new forecast shows a slower motion from days 3 to 5, in\nbetter agreement with the latest models.\n \nSome additional strengthening is possible tonight, and Simon could\nbecome a major hurricane again. However, slow weakening seems\nlikely after that time due to an increase in vertical wind shear,\nintrusions of dry air, and possibly ocean upwelling. The NHC\nintensity forecast is raised from the previous one in the short\nterm, but is similar to the prior forecast beyond a couple of days.\n \nSimon has been a very challenging storm to forecast, and confidence\nfor this cycle remains low given the weak steering, proximity to\nland, very small size, and significant model spread.\n \nKey Messages:\n \n1. Simon could be near Las Islas Marias on Thursday, where a\nHurricane Watch remains in effect. Interests in west-central Mexico\nand Baja California Sur should continue to closely monitor the\nlatest updates. Additional watches or warnings could be required\nover the next day or two.\n \n2. Large swells will likely affect portions of the coast of\nwest-central Mexico and Baja California Sur over the next several\ndays. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current\nconditions.\n \n \nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n \nINIT  14/0300Z 20.1N 107.6W   95 KT 110 MPH\n 12H  14/1200Z 20.1N 107.8W  105 KT 120 MPH\n 24H  15/0000Z 19.6N 108.2W   95 KT 110 MPH\n 36H  15/1200Z 18.9N 108.5W   85 KT 100 MPH\n 48H  16/0000Z 19.7N 108.1W   75 KT  85 MPH\n 60H  16/1200Z 21.0N 108.0W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 72H  17/0000Z 22.3N 108.8W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 96H  18/0000Z 24.1N 109.7W   40 KT  45 MPH\n120H  19/0000Z 27.2N 110.9W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n \n"}