{"msg": "518\nAXNT20 KNHC 132351\nTWDAT \nTropical Weather Discussion\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n0015 UTC Wed Oct 14 2026\nTropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America\nGulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South\nAmerica, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the\nEquator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite\nimagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.\nBased on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through \n2330 UTC.\n...TROPICAL WAVES...\nAn eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 34W, from 10N to 24N, \nmoving westward near 10 kt. A tight gradient between the wave and high\npressure to its north is producing fresh to strong easterly winds\nfrom 18N to 24N between 27W and 36W. Seas with these winds are 8 \nto 11 ft (2.5 to 3.5 m). Satellite imagery shows scattered moderate\nto isolated strong convection from 15N to 25N between 25W and \n33W. Scattered moderate convection is within 180 nm east of the \nwave from 10N to 18N.\nA central Atlantic tropical wave is along 46W from 10N to 20N, \nmoving westward at 10 to 15 kt. An upper level trough to the N and\nNW of the wave is shearing associated convection off to the east\nof the wave. Scattered moderate convection is from 12N to 22N\nbetween 38W and 48W.\n...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...\nThe monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic near 13N17W to \n18.5N33W to 10N49W. The ITCZ extends from 10N49W to 09N60W. \nWidely scattered moderate convection is from 03.5N to 11N between \n25W and 35W, and within 60 nm of the ITCZ between 50W and 60W.\n...GULF OF AMERICA...\nA 1020 mb high is centered over northern GA and extends a broad\nridge south-southwestward across the basin, behind the dissipated\ncold front in the Straits of Florida. The associated pressure gradient\nis providing gentle to moderate northeast to east winds across \nthe eastern half of the Gulf S of 28N, and east to southeast \nwinds of the same speed W of 90W. Seas basin- wide are in the \nrange of 2 to 4 ft, with slightly higher seas of 3 to 5 ft S of\n25N between 84W and 90W. Fair skies prevail.\nFor the forecast, high pressure over the north-central Gulf will \nsupport E to SE winds and moderate seas from the Florida Straits \nto the Texas coast, and gentle breezes and slight seas elsewhere. \nA cold front is expected to enter the northwest Gulf Fri night, \nand reach from southwest Florida to the far southwest Gulf by Sat \nnight. Strong to near- gale force winds and rough seas will follow\nthe front, with gales possible off the coast of Mexico between \nTampico and Coatzacoalcos late Fri night into Sun.\n...CARIBBEAN SEA...\nThe tail-end of a narrow upper-level trough stretches southwestward\nfrom the NW Bahamas across the northwestern Caribbean, and is\nsupporting scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms from the\nGulf of Honduras northward to 20N and west of 80W, and across\nCentral America. A mid to upper- level low over the Windward\nPassage continues to support scattered showers and thunderstorms \nacross the basin between 62W and 76W. This feature reflects at \nthe surface as a trough that is moving westward across the central\nCaribbean, while a 1010 mb low center has formed near 12.5N78W. \nOtherwise, the passage of a weakening cold front north of the area\nalong with low pressure east of the Bahamas are supporting a weak\npressure gradient across the region, resulting in moderate or \nweaker trade winds and slight to moderate seas, except for fresh \nwinds across the central Caribbean where the most concentrated\nconvection is occurring.\nFor the forecast, scattered showers and thunderstorms will remain \nactive across the central Caribbean through tonight, associated \nwith an upper level low. Fresh E to SE winds will persist north of\n13N south and southwest of Jamaica through mid week, north of \nbroad low pressure over the southwest Caribbean. Trade winds will \nincrease along with building seas over the south- central \nCaribbean as high pressure builds over the western Atlantic. \n...ATLANTIC OCEAN...\nA frontal trough extends from near 31N65W to the central Bahamas.\nScattered showers are within 90 nm northwest of the trough. \nIsolated showers and thunderstorms are over the Straits of \nFlorida, and from 25N to 28N between 64W and 67W. Farther east, a\nweak trough is analyzed from near 30N51W to 24N58W. Scattered\nshowers and thunderstorms are within 120 nm either side of this \nfeature. The central and eastern subtropical Atlantic are under \nthe influence of the Azores ridge.  A weak pressure is generally \nallowing for light to gentle winds north of 18N west of 50W. Seas \nwith these winds are 3 to 5 ft in north to northeast swell east of\n65W, and in northeast to east swell west of 65W. Higher east \nwinds of fresh to strong speeds and seas of 8 to 10 ft are near \nthe east Atlantic tropical wave as described above under the \nTropical Waves section. Fresh to strong winds are also ongoing \nbetween the west coast of Africa and the Canary Islands as noted \nin an overnight scatterometer satellite data pass.\nFor the forecast west of 55W, a few thunderstorms are active \nalong a trough reaching from south of Bermuda to the central \nBahamas. A cold front front will move southward into the waters \neast of 75W into Wed, then stall and dissipate along 29N through \nThu. Looking ahead, a stronger cold front will move into the \nwaters off northeast Florida by late Fri night into early Sat \nmorning, and reach from Bermuda to South Florida by late Sat. \nStrong to near-gale force NE winds and rough seas to 12 ft will \nfollow the front. \n", "title": "Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion", "id": "1218527511736745987", "issued": "2026-10-13T00:15:00Z", "wmo": "AXNT20", "source": "NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center, received via the National Weather Wire Service", "page": "https://hurricane.terrapin.com/text/1218527511736745987"}