{"msg": "051\nAXPZ20 KNHC 132143\nTWDEP \nTropical Weather Discussion\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n2205 UTC Tue Oct 13 2026\nTropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from\n03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and\nfrom the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following\ninformation is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,\nradar, and meteorological analysis.\nBased on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through\n2100 UTC.\n...SPECIAL FEATURES...\nHurricane Simon is centered near 20.2N 107.5W at 2100 UTC, \nmoving west at 2 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 977 \nmb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 80 kt with gusts to 100 kt. \nPeak seas are near 20 ft. Numerous moderate to strong convection\nis within 30 nm of the center. Scattered to numerous moderate \nand isolated strong convection is elsewhere from 18.5N to 21N \nbetween 106.59W and 109W. Simon is very small and located in an\narea of weak steering currents. Simon is expected to move S to SW\nduring the next 24-36 hours, and then after 48 hours, begin a\nnorthward motion. Simon could approach the coast of western \nMexico this weekend. Interests in west-central Mexico and Baja \nCalifornia Sur should continue to closely monitor the latest \nupdates to Simon's forecast. Changes to watches and warnings \ncould be required tonight or Wed based on the latest forecast \ntrends. Associated heavy rainfall will produce life- threatening \nflooding and mudslides or worsen any on- going flooding, \nespecially in areas of steep terrain. Swells generated by Simon \nwill affect portions of the coast of southwestern and west- \ncentral Mexico during the next few days, as well as the southern \nGulf of California. These swells are likely to cause large and \npowerful surf and life- threatening rip current conditions. \nPlease consult products from your local weather office.\nTropical Depression Twenty-One-E has strengthened to Tropical\nStorm Trudy. At 2100 UTC Trudy was located near 10.6N 96.5W, \nmoving northwest at 7 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is \n1005 mb. Maximum sustained wind is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt,\noccurring only in the NE Quadrant. Peak seas are estimated at 13\nft across the N semicircle. Scattered to numerous moderate to \nstrong convection is occurring from 09N to 14.5N between 92W and\n100W. A west- northwestward to northwestward motion should \ncontinue over the next 36 hours, then a decrease in forward speed\nand turn toward the north-northwest is expected after 48 hours. \nExtremely favorable oceanic and atmospheric conditions are \nforecast for at least the next 3 to 4 days, and steady to rapid \nstrengthening is forecast, with a major hurricane possible by \nSat. Trudy could potentially be very close to the coast of\nsouthwestern and west-central Mexico as a major hurricane late\nthis week and over the weekend.\nPlease read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the\nNational Hurricane Center at website -\nhttps://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest\nSimon and T.D. Twenty-One-E NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public \nAdvisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details.\n...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...\nThe monsoon trough extends from 13N77W to 09N83W to 10.5N90W,\nthen resumes from near 07.5N100W to 05N107W. The ITCZ extends \nfrom 05N107W to 04N122W to beyond 07N140W. Scattered moderate \nisolated strong convection is noted from 04.5N to 09N E of 86W, \nand from 06N to 08N between 92W and 99W. Scattered moderate to \nstrong convection is noted from 00.5N to 06N between 102W and \n130W and from 05N to 09.5N W of 138W.\n...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...\nPlease see the Special Features section above for information on \nHurricane Simon, and newly upgraded Tropical Storm Trudy.\nAside from conditions associated with Simon, which is small in\nsize, mainly gentle to moderate winds prevail across the waters\nbetween a dying stationary front extending from central Baja to \n20N125W and Puerto Angel. Seas there are 6 to 8 ft in merging Sw\nand NW swell. Moderate to locally fresh N to NE winds are within\n150 nm N of the front over the Baja offshore waters, with fresh \nNW to N winds behind the front in the far northern Gulf of \nCalifornia. Seas are 7 to 9 ft in NW swell across the Pacific \nwater behind the front and 3 to 5 ft in the northern Gulf. Gentle\nto moderate northerly winds are elsewhere N of the front. \nTo the east, fresh northerly winds are funneling through the \nGulf of Tehuantepec in response to Tropical Storm Trudy, where \nseas are 6 to 7 ft. Fresh to strong N to NE winds occurring on\nthe periphery of Trudy prevail across the far outer waters S of\nTehuantepec and Oaxaca, where seas are 7 to 10 ft.\nFor the forecast, Simon will move slowly S to SW through Thu, \nreaching near 19.5N 108W Wed night, then begin to move \nnorthward, reaching near 19.8N 107.6W Thu afternoon, near 21.0N\n107.8W Thu night, near 22.6N 108.8W Fri afternoon, near 24.4N\n110.2W Sat afternoon near Baja, and then inland near 28.8N 111.1W \nby Sun afternoon. A stationary front drifting across the \nnorthern waters will gradually dissipate Tonight. Rough seas in \nNW swell west of Baja California will gradually diminish through \nearly Wed. Elsewhere, Tropical Storm Trudy near 10.6N 96.5W at 2 \nPM, moving NW at 7 kt. A west- northwestward to northwestward \nmotion should continue over the next 36 hours, then a decrease in\nforward speed and turn toward the north-northwest is expected \nafter 48 hours. Steady to rapid strengthening is forecast, with a\nmajor hurricane offshore of SW or west-central Mexico possible \nlate Fri through the weekend. \n...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, \nAND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...\nEasterly gap winds downstream of the Papagayo region have\ndiminished to moderate today, as newly upgraded Tropical Storm \nTrudy is passing S of Tehuantepec 10.6N 96.5W. Fresh to strong \nwinds and rough seas to 13 ft are found across the NE semicircle\nof Trudy, and dominate the outer offshore waters to the \nsouthwest of Guatemala. Scattered to numerous showers and \nthunderstorms also prevail across these outer waters S of 14.5N\nand W of 92W. Gentle to moderate winds, and moderate seas to 7 ft\nin SW swell prevail over the remainder of the offshore waters. \nScattered moderate convection continues across and S of the \nwaters of Costa Rica, Panama and Colombia E of 85W.\nFor the forecast, fresh to strong winds and rough seas occurring\nS of 13N, and associated with Tropical Storm Trudy well offshore\nof Guatemala, will diminish through Wed as Trudy moves further \nfrom the area and intensifies. Otherwise, a weak pressure \ngradient will support moderate or lighter winds, and moderate \nseas dominated by SW swell across much of the forecast waters \nthrough the end of the week. Scattered showers and thunderstorms \nare expected to remain active across the waters E of 85W tonight.\n...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...\nA dying stationary front extends across the NE waters from\ncentral Baja California Norte to 20N125W. Moderate to fresh N to\nNE winds and rough seas of 7 to 10 ft in NW swell cover the \nwaters N of 20N behind the front. Light to gentle winds and seas \nof 6 to 8 ft in merging NW and SW swell generally prevail \nelsewhere S of 20N W of 110W, except for moderate SE to S winds \nnear the equator. Thunderstorms are very active within 180 nm of\nthe ITCZ W of 108W.\nFor the forecast, the stationary front will gradually dissipate \ntonight. Large SW swell will affect the waters S of the Equator \nand west of 105W over the next couple of days, followed by \nanother pulse of large S-SW swell arriving into the waters W of \n100W Wed night.\n", "title": "Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion", "id": "1218502349692534787", "issued": "2026-10-13T22:05:00Z", "wmo": "AXPZ20", "source": "NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center, received via the National Weather Wire Service", "page": "https://hurricane.terrapin.com/text/1218502349692534787"}