{"id": "1218489320031617027", "title": "Tropical Cyclone Discussion", "adv_date": "2026-10-13T21:00:00Z", "msg": "207\nWTPZ41 KNHC 132037\nTCDEP1\n \nTropical Storm Trudy Discussion Number   2\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP212026\n300 PM CST Tue Oct 13 2026\n \nSatellite images indicate that the tropical cyclone continues to\nbecome better organized.  Both microwave and geostationary satellite\ndata indicate that the center is likely about 60 miles to the\neast-northeast of the previous estimate, and based on recent data,\nconfidence in the initial position estimate is a little higher now.\nThe improving low-level center appears to be located near the\nsouthwest edge of a recent burst of deep convection.  The latest\nsubjective Dvorak classification from TAFB is T2.5/35 kt, and a\nrecent AiDT intensity estimate from UW-CIMSS is also 35 kt.  An\nASCAT pass from 1452 UTC had a couple of believable 31-kt vectors\nnorth of the center.  Given the low bias of the ASCAT instrument due\nto its resolution, and based on the improving structure observed on\nsatellite imagery since that time with increased banded convection\nnear the low-level center, the depression is upgraded to Tropical\nStorm Trudy with 35-kt winds.\n \nThe initial motion estimate for Trudy is northwestward, or 320/7 kt.\nA west-northwestward to northwestward motion is expected over the\nnext 36 hours while a mid-level ridge persists over the northwestern\nGulf of America.  Thereafter, a turn more toward the north-northwest\nis likely as the ridge weakens.  A decrease in forward speed is also\nexpected by day 2 as the cyclone gets caught in weaker steering\ncurrents in between the weak ridge to its north and Hurricane Simon\nto its northwest.  Spread in the track forecast is larger than\nnormal from day 3 to 5, and some of this uncertainty is likely also\ndue to uncertainty in Simon's track and strength.  A cold front\nmoving southward from Texas into Mexico toward the end of the\nforecast period could help draw Simon closer to the coastline of\nMexico, if the front is potent enough.  Regardless, Trudy could\npotentially be very close to the coast of Mexico as a hurricane over\nthe weekend.  The NHC forecast has been pushed to the right (east)\nof the previous forecast due to the farther east initial position\nand a net eastward shift in the model guidance during the first 3\ndays of the forecast.  At days 4 and 5, the new NHC forecast is only\nslightly east of the previous NHC forecast, which would bring Trudy\ncloser to the coast of southwestern and west-central Mexico.  The\nnew NHC forecast is very close to the latest Google DeepMind\nEnsemble Mean.  Confidence in the track forecast remains low,\nespecially from hour 72 to 120.\n \nThe cyclone is forecast to traverse extremely favorable oceanic and\natmospheric conditions for the next 4 days or so.  The NHC intensity\nforecast shows steady strengthening over the next 12 hours as the\ncyclone works to develop a convective core.  After that time, rapid\nintensification is forecast during the 12 to 60 h time window. Some\nof the SHIPS rapid intensification guidance shows a fairly high\nchance of rapid intensification over the next few days. The NHC\nintensity forecast shows 80 knots of strengthening over the next 72\nh, and is in excellent agreement with the latest HCCA and GDMI.  90\npercent of the Google DeepMind Ensemble Members are forecasting\nTrudy to become a major hurricane.  The NHC intensity forecast is\nsimilar to the previous one, and it's possible that Trudy could get\nstronger in between the day 3 and 4 points, when the cyclone is\nlikely to peak in intensity.  Beyond day 4, the possibility of\nincreasing vertical wind shear and land interaction could induce\nsome weakening, and most of the guidance shows the system losing\nsome strength after day 4.  Confidence in the intensity forecast is\nabove average.  We are fairly confident it will become a strong\nhurricane due to the favorable environmental conditions and model\nguidance.\n \nKey Messages:\n \n1. Trudy is forecast to be a major hurricane as it approaches the\ncoast of southwestern and west-central Mexico late this week and\ninto the weekend. There is an increasing risk of wind, rain, and\nstorm surge impacts, but it is too soon to determine the exact\nlocation or magnitude of these impacts.\n \n \nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n \nINIT  13/2100Z 10.6N  96.5W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 12H  14/0600Z 11.3N  97.5W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 24H  14/1800Z 12.0N  99.0W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 36H  15/0600Z 12.7N 100.1W   75 KT  85 MPH\n 48H  15/1800Z 13.5N 100.8W   90 KT 105 MPH\n 60H  16/0600Z 14.3N 101.2W  105 KT 120 MPH\n 72H  16/1800Z 15.3N 101.6W  115 KT 130 MPH\n 96H  17/1800Z 17.1N 103.3W  115 KT 130 MPH\n120H  18/1800Z 19.1N 105.2W  100 KT 115 MPH\n \n"}