{"msg": "405\nAXNT20 KNHC 131654\nTWDAT \nTropical Weather Discussion\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n1815 UTC Tue Oct 13 2026\nTropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America\nGulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South\nAmerica, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the\nEquator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite\nimagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.\nBased on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through \n1645 UTC.\n...TROPICAL WAVES...\nAn eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis near 33W, from 10N\nto 20N, moving westward near 10 kt. A 1010 mb low pressure is \nalong the northern portion of the wave near 19N33W as a recent\nscatterometer satellite data pass indicated. A tight gradient to \nits north is producing fresh to strong east winds from 17N to 24N \nbetween 28W and 35W. Seas with these winds are 8 to 10 ft\n(2.5 to 3 m). Satellite imagery shows moderate to isolated strong\nconvection from 19N to 25N between 30W and 35W. Scattered \nmoderate convection is within 180 nm east of the wave from 13N to \n18N.\nA central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis near 46W from 10N \nto 20N, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate to\nisolated strong convection is within 180 nm east of the wave from\n11N to 18N between 42W and 46W.\n...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...\nThe monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic near 13N16W to \n19N33W to 11N47W. The ITCZ extends from 11N47W to 10N59W.\nScattered moderate convection is within 180 nm south of the \ntrough between 25W-30W. Scattered moderate convection is \nwithin 60 nm of the trough between 38W-42W. \n...GULF OF AMERICA...\nA 1018 mb high is located near 29N88W. Its associated gradient \nis providing gentle to moderate northeast to east winds across \nthe eastern half of the Gulf S of 27N, and east to southeast \nwinds of the same speed W of 90W. Seas basin-wide are in the \nrange of 2 to 4 ft, with slightly higher seas of 3 to 5 ft from \n22N to 26N between 87W and 91W.\nFor the forecast, high pressure building across the basin will \nsupport east to southeast winds and moderate seas from the \nStraits of Florida to the Texas coast, and gentle breezes and \nslight seas elsewhere. A cold front is expected to enter the \nNW Gulf Fri night, and reach from southwest Florida to the far \nsouthwest Gulf by Sat night. Strong to near-gale force winds and \nrough seas will follow the front, with gale-force winds possible \noff the coast of Mexico between Tampico and Coatzacoalcos Fri \nnight through Sat night.\n...CARIBBEAN SEA...\nThe tail-end of a narrow upper-level trough stretches southwestward\nfrom the Bahamas to the northwestern Caribbean. Scattered showers\nand isolated thunderstorms are seen north of 19n west of 80W, and\nsouth of 19N west of 85W, including the Gulf of Tehuantepec \nregion. A mid to upper-level low over the eastern Caribbean \ncontinues to support scattered showers and thunderstorms east of \nabout 76W. This feature reflects at the surface as a trough that \nis moving westward across the central Caribbean. Otherwise, the \npassage of a weakening cold front north of the area along with \nlow pressure east of the Bahamas are supporting a weak pressure \ngradient across the region, thus resulting in moderate or weaker \ntrade winds and slight to moderate seas, except for fresh winds \noffshore Venezuela in the south- central Caribbean. \nFor the forecast, scattered showers and thunderstorms will be active\nacross the central Caribbean through today, associated with an \nupper-level low. Fresh eas to southeast winds will persist north \nof 13N south and southwest of Jamaica through midweek, north of \nbroad low pressure over the southwestern Caribbean. Trade winds \nwill increase along with building seas over the south-central \nCaribbean as high pressure builds over the western Atlantic. \n...ATLANTIC OCEAN...\nA frontal trough extends from near 31N67W to the central Bahamas.\nScattered showers and thunderstorms are within 90 nm northwest of\nthe trough. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are over the \nStraits of Florida, and from 24N to 27N between 64W and 69W. \nFarther east, a weak trough is analyzed from near 29N53W to\n24N57W. No significant convection is occurring with these feature.\nThe central and eastern subtropical Atlantic are under the \ninfluence of the Azores ridge. A weakening stationary front\nextends from 31N34W to near 30N43W. A weak pressure is generally \nallowing for light to gentle winds north of 18N west of 50W. Seas \nwith these winds are 3 to 5 ft in north to northeast swell east\nof 65W, and in northeast to east swell west of 65W. Higher east \nwinds of fresh to strong speeds and seas of 8 to 10 ft are near \nthe east Atlantic tropical wave as described above under the \nTropical Waves section. Fresh to strong winds are also ongoing \nbetween the west coast of Africa and the Canary Islands as noted \nin an overnight scatterometer satellite data pass.\nFor the forecast west of 55W, the front will dissipate through \nWed. A second reinforcing front will move southward into the \nwaters east of 75W into Wed, then stall and dissipate along 29N \nthrough Thu. A stronger cold front will move into the waters off \nnortheast Florida by late Fri night into early Sat morning, and \nreach from Bermuda to South Florida by late Sat. Strong to near- \ngale force winds and rough seas will follow the front.\n", "title": "Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion", "id": "1218445471201755139", "issued": "2026-10-13T18:15:00Z", "wmo": "AXNT20", "source": "NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center, received via the National Weather Wire Service", "page": "https://hurricane.terrapin.com/text/1218445471201755139"}