{"msg": "330\nAXPZ20 KNHC 131607\nTWDEP \nTropical Weather Discussion\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n1605 UTC Tue Oct 13 2026\nTropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from\n03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and\nfrom the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following\ninformation is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,\nradar, and meteorological analysis.\nBased on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through\n1530 UTC.\n...SPECIAL FEATURES...\nHurricane Simon is centered near 20.3N 107.3W at 1500 UTC, \nmoving west at 2 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 977 \nmb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 80 kt with gusts to 100 kt. \nPeak seas are near 22 ft. Numerous moderate to strong convection\nis within 45 nm of the center. Scattered to numerous moderate \nand isolated strong convection is elsewhere from 18.5N to 21N \nbetween 109W and 109W. Simon is located further south than\nestimated overnight, and is now expected to move slowly W to SW\nthrough Thu before beginning a northward motion. Simon could \napproach the coast of western Mexico this weekend. Interests \nin west-central Mexico and Baja California Sur should \ncontinue to closely monitor the latest updates to Simon's forecast. \nChanges to watches and warnings could be required later today based \non the latest forecast trends. Associated heavy rainfall will \nproduce life- threatening flooding and mudslides or worsen any \non- going flooding, especially in areas of steep terrain. Swells \ngenerated by Simon will affect portions of the coast of \nsouthwestern and west- central Mexico during the next few days, \nas well as the southern Gulf of California. These swells are \nlikely to cause large and powerful surf and life- threatening rip\ncurrent conditions. Please consult products from your local \nweather office.\nTropical Depression Twenty-One-E has formed this morning several\nhundred miles south of Oaxaca, Mexico, near 09.8N 96.5W at 1500 \nUTC, moving northwest at 9 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure\nis 1006 mb. Maximum sustained wind is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt.\nPeak seas are estimated at 12 ft across the N semicircle. \nScattered to numerous moderate to strong convection is occurring \nfrom 09N to 13.5N between 92W and 99W. A west-northwestward to \nnorthwestward motion should continue over the next 36 hours, then\na decrease in forward speed is expected after 48 hours. Tropical\nDepression 21-E could potentially be very close to the coast of \nMexico as a hurricane over the weekend. Extremely favorable \noceanic and atmospheric conditions are forecast for at least the \nnext 3 to 4 days, and steady to rapid strengthening is forecast, \nwith a major hurricane possible by Sat. \nPlease read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the\nNational Hurricane Center at website -\nhttps://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest\nSimon and T.D. Twenty-One-E NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public \nAdvisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details.\n...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...\nThe monsoon trough extends from 10.5N75.5W to 08N81W to T.D.\nTwenty-One-E near near 09.8N 96.5W to 05.5N107W. The ITCZ \nextends from 05.5N107W to 03.5N121W to beyond 06.5N140W. \nScattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 01.5N\nto 09N E of 89W, and from 02.5N to 06.5N between 93W and 97W.\nScattered moderate to strong convection is noted from 01N to  \n06N between 101W and 128W and from 05.5N to 09.5N W of 139W.\n...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...\nPlease see the Special Features section above for information on \nHurricane Simon, and newly formed Tropical Depression Twenty-\nOne-E.\nAside from conditions associated with Simon, which is small in\nsize, mainly gentle to moderate winds prevail across the waters\nbetween 20N and a stationary front extending from central Baja \n10 22N120W. Moderate to locally fresh N to NE winds are within \n150 nm N of the front over the Baja offshore waters, with fresh \nwinds on either side of the front in the far northern Gulf of \nCalifornia. Seas are 7 to 9 ft in NW swell across the Pacific \nwater behind the front and 3 to 5 ft in the northern Gulf. \nElsewhere, fresh northerly winds are funneling through the Gulf \nof Tehuantepec in response to Tropical Depression Twenty- One-E. \nGentle to moderate winds, and moderate to rough seas in merging \nSW and NW swell dominate the remainder of the discussion waters.\nFor the forecast, Hurricane Simon is near 20.3N 107.3W at 8 AM, \nmoving west at 2 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 977 \nmb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 80 kt with gusts to 100 kt. \nSimon will move slowly W to SW through Thu, reaching near 20.3N \n107.8W Wed morning, near 20.1N 107.7W Thu morning, then begin to \nmove northward, reaching near 21.0N 107.8W Thu afternoon, near \n22.8N 108.2W Fri morning, near 25.2N 109.6W Sat morning and then \ninland near 28.5N 110.5W by Sun morning. A stationary front \ndrifting across the northern waters will gradually dissipate \nlate today. Rough seas in NW swell west of Baja California will \ngradually diminish through early Wed. Elsewhere, Tropical \nDepression Twenty-One-E has formed near 09.8N 96.5W at 8 AM, \nmoving NW at 9 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb.\nMaximum sustained wind is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. A west- \nnorthwest to northwestward motion should continue over the next \n36 hours, then a decrease in forward speed is expected after 48 \nhours. Steady to rapid strengthening is forecast, with a major \nhurricane offshore of SW Mexico possible by Sat. \n...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, \nAND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...\nEasterly gap winds downstream of the Papagayo region have\ndiminished to moderate in recent hours, as newly formed Tropical \nDepression Twenty-One-E is passing S of Tehuantepec along about\n10N. Fresh to strong winds and rough seas to 10 ft are found\nacross the NE semicircle of Twenty-One-E, and dominate the outer\noffshore waters to the southwest of Guatemala and El Salvador.\nScattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms also prevail\nacross these outer waters. Gentle to moderate winds, and \nmoderate to locally rough seas, prevail over the remainder of the\noffshore waters. Scattered moderate convection continues this\nmorning across the waters of Panama and Colombia E of 82W.\nFor the forecast, fresh to strong winds and rough seas, associated \nwith Twenty-One-E, well offshore Guatemala and El Salvador will \ndecrease through Wed as it moves further from the area and\nintensifies. Otherwise, a weak pressure gradient will support \nmoderate or lighter winds, and moderate seas dominated by SW \nswell across much of the forecast waters through the end of the \nweek. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to remain\nactive across the waters E of 85W today. \n...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...\nA stationary front extends across the NE waters from Baja \nCalifornia Norte to 20N125W. Moderate to fresh N to NE winds and\nrough seas of 7 to 10 ft in NW swell cover the waters N of 20N\nbehind the front. Light to gentle winds and seas of 6 to 8 ft in\nmerging NW and SW swell generally prevail elsewhere S of 20N W \nof 120W, except for moderate SE to S winds near the equator.\nFor the forecast, the stationary front will gradually dissipate \nthrough this evening. Large SW swell will affect the waters S of\nthe Equator and west of 105W over the next couple of days, \nfollowed by another pulse of large S-SW swell arriving into the \nwaters W of 100W Wed night.\n", "title": "Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion", "id": "1218436328420114435", "issued": "2026-10-13T16:05:00Z", "wmo": "AXPZ20", "source": "NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center, received via the National Weather Wire Service", "page": "https://hurricane.terrapin.com/text/1218436328420114435"}