{"msg": "212\nAXNT20 KNHC 131023\nTWDAT\nTropical Weather Discussion\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n1215 UTC Tue Oct 13 2026\nTropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America\nGulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South\nAmerica, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the\nEquator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite\nimagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.\nBased on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through \n1000 UTC.\n...TROPICAL WAVES...\nA tropical wave is analyzed along 33W, from 10N to 20N, moving \nwestward near 10 kt. A 1009 mb low pressure is analyzed at the \nwave axis near 18N32W. Fresh to strong winds are approximately \nwithin 390 nm NE semicircle, where seas are 8 to 10 ft. Numerous \nmoderate scattered strong convection is present from 12N to 25N \nbetween 21W and 35W. Further development of this system appears \nunlikely as the low moves slowly northward to north-northwestward \nand encounters stronger upper-level winds today and tonight. \nRegardless of development, heavy rainfall is expected to continue \ntoday across western portions of the Cabo Verde Islands with some \nflooding possible there. There is a low chance for\ntropical cyclone development in the next 48 hours, and through \nnext 7 days.\nA tropical wave is analyzed near 45W, from 10N to 20N, moving \nwestward near 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong \nconvection is observed from 10N to 21N between 35W and 46W.\n...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...\nThe monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 13N17W to 11N47W. The\nITCZ extends from 11N47W to 10N55W to 09N61W. See information on \nthe convection in the Tropical Waves section above.\n...GULF OF AMERICA...\nA 1018 mb high is located near 29N88W, which is providing gentle \nto moderate NE to E winds across the eastern half of the Gulf S of\n27N, and E to SE winds of the same speed W of 90W. Seas basin- \nwide are mainly slight with some areas reaching 4 ft. \nFor the forecast, High pressure building across the basin will support \nE to SE winds and moderate seas from the Florida Straits to the \nTexas coast, and gentle breezes and slight seas elsewhere. A cold \nfront is expected to enter the northwest Gulf Fri night, and \nreach from southwest Florida to the far southwest Gulf by Sat \nnight. Strong to near-gale force winds and rough seas will follow\nthe front, with gales possible off the coast of Mexico between \nTampico and Coatzacoalcos Fri night through Sat night.\n...CARIBBEAN SEA...\nScattered showers and tstms are over the lee of Cuba adjacent\nwaters, in the Windward Passage and in the Gulf of Honduras. A\nmiddle-level low is supporting scattered to isolated showers over\nthe eastern half of the basin. This low aloft reflects at the\nsurface on a trough that is moving across the central Caribbean. \nOtherwise, the passage of a weakening cold front N of the area \nalong with low pressure E of the Bahamas are supporting a weak \npressure gradient across the region, thus resulting in moderate or\nweaker trade winds and slight to moderate seas, except for fresh \nwinds offshore Venezuela in the south-central Caribbean. \nFor the forecast, scattered showers and thunderstorms will be active\nacross the central Caribbean through today, associated with an \nupper level low. Fresh winds across the south-central Caribbean \nwill diminish by this morning as high pressure north of the \nregion shifts eastward. Moderate to fresh E to SE winds and \nmoderate seas will persist through mid week across the Caribbean, \nthen increase again later in the week as high pressure builds \nnorth of the area. \n...ATLANTIC OCEAN...\nA weakening cold front extends from 31N69W to 25N80W.  Ahead of \nthe front, a surface trough extends from 30N68W to 27N79W, which \nis supporting scattered showers ahead of it to approximately 67W.\nFarther east, a 1012 mb low is centered near 26N67W. However, it \nlacks convection. The central and eastern subtropical Atlantic are\nunder the influence of the Azores ridge with a weakening \nstationary front that extends from 31N34W to 29N48W. A surface \ntrough is analyzed from 28N51W to 23N55W. Moderate or weaker \nwinds and moderate seas are N of 20N W of 44W. East of 44W, winds \nare fresh to strong in the NE semicircle of a low connected to a \ntropical wave near 32W. Fresh to strong winds are also ongoing \nbetween the coast of W Africa and the Canary Islands.\nFor the forecast west of 55W, the front will dissipate through \nWed. A second reinforcing front will move southward into the \nwaters east of 75W into Wed, then stall and dissipate along 29N \nthrough Thu. A stronger cold front will move into the waters off \nnortheast Florida by late Fri night into early Sat morning, and \nreach from Bermuda to South Florida by late Sat. Strong to near- \ngale force winds and rough seas will follow the front.\n", "title": "Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion", "id": "1218368701263183875", "issued": "2026-10-13T12:15:00Z", "wmo": "AXNT20", "source": "NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center, received via the National Weather Wire Service", "page": "https://hurricane.terrapin.com/text/1218368701263183875"}