{"msg": "131\nAXPZ20 KNHC 130905\nTWDEP \nTropical Weather Discussion\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n1005 UTC Tue Oct 13 2026\nTropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from\n03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and\nfrom the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following\ninformation is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,\nradar, and meteorological analysis.\nBased on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through\n0900 UTC.\n...SPECIAL FEATURES...\nHurricane Simon is centered near 20.6N 107.2W at 13/0900 UTC,\nmoving northwest at 3 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is\n977 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 80 kt with gusts to 100\nkt. Peak seas are near 20 ft. Numerous moderate to strong \nconvection is within 45 nm of the center. Scattered to numerous \nmoderate and isolated strong convection is elsewhere from 17N to \n22N between 105W and 110W. Simon is forecast to continue on a \nslow northward track the next few days. Simon could approach the \ncoast of western Mexico later this week. Simon is expected to \nproduce rainfall totals of 5 to 10 inches across coastal west- \ncentral Mexico with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches over \nthe state of Sinaloa by Thursday. This rainfall will produce \nlife- threatening flooding and mudslides or worsen any on- going \nflooding, especially in areas of steep terrain. Swells generated \nby Simon will affect portions of the coast of southwestern and \nwest- central Mexico during the next few days, as well as the \nsouthern Gulf of California. These swells are likely to cause \nlarge and powerful surf and life- threatening rip current \nconditions. Please consult products from your local weather \noffice.\nPlease read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the\nNational Hurricane Center at website -\nhttps://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest\nSimon NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at\nwww.hurricanes.gov for more details.\nSouth of Southern Mexico (EP93):\nA broad area of low pressure located several hundred miles \nsouth- southwest of the coast of Guatemala continues to show \nimproved signs of organization with increased shower and \nthunderstorm activity. The environmental conditions are forecast \nto be conducive for further development of the system, and a \ntropical depression or tropical storm is expected to form well \nsouth of southern Mexico within the next day or so. The system is\nexpected to move generally west-northwestward around 10 mph. \nThere is a high chance for tropical cyclone development through \nnext 48 hours. In anticipation of this system developing, a gale \nwarning has been issued. \n...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...\nThe monsoon trough extends from 08N83W to 09N95W to 05N107W. The\nITCZ extends from 05N107W to 04N120W to 07N140W. Scattered \nmoderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 00N to 08N \nE of 99W, from 04N to 14N between 91W to 100W, and from 02N to \n06N between 100W and 130W.\n...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...\nPlease see the Special Features section above for information on \nHurricane Simon, and for a gale warning associated with EP93.\nAside from conditions associated with Simon, fresh to locally \nstrong winds are funneling through the Gulf of Tehuantepec in \nresponse to a deepening low pressure (EP93) south of the area. \nElsewhere, a stationary front extends from the northern Gulf of \nCalifornia across Baja California Norte to near 21N129W. Fresh \nSW winds are in the northern Gulf ahead of the front. Gentle to \nmoderate winds, and slight to moderate seas, prevail elsewhere \nover the Gulf. Moderate to fresh winds and rough seas are north \nof the front. Gentle to moderate winds, and moderate to rough \nseas dominate the remainder of the discussion waters. \nFor the forecast, Hurricane Simon is near 20.6N 107.2W at 2 AM \nPDT, and is moving northwest at 3 kt. Maximum sustained winds are\n80 kt with gusts to 100 kt, and the minimum central pressure is \n977 mb. Simon will move to 20.7N 107.4W this afternoon, 20.9N \n107.7W Wed morning, 21.0N 107.8W Wed afternoon, 21.2N 107.9W Thu \nmorning, 21.8N 108.0W Thu afternoon, and 23.0N 108.1W Fri \nmorning. Simon will weaken to a tropical storm near 24.2N 108.1W \nearly Sat. A stationary front moving across the northern waters \nwill gradually dissipate today. Rough seas in NW swell west of \nBaja California will gradually diminish through early Wed. \nElsewhere, a broad area of low pressure located several hundred \nmiles south- southwest of the coast of Guatemala continues to \nshow improved signs of organization with increased shower and \nthunderstorm activity. The environmental conditions are forecast \nto be conducive for further development of the system, and a \ntropical depression or tropical storm is expected to form well \nsouth of southern Mexico within the next day or so. The system is\nexpected to move generally west-northwestward around 10 mph. \nThere is a high chance for tropical cyclone development through \nnext 48 hours. In anticipation of tropical cyclone development, a\ngale warning has been issued for portions of the waters south of\nsouthern Mexico.\n...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, \nAND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...\nFresh to strong winds, and rough seas, associated with EP93 \ncover the waters well offshore Guatemala and El Salvador. Gentle\nto moderate winds, and moderate to locally rough seas, prevail\nover the remainder of the offshore waters. \nFor the forecast, fresh to strong winds and rough seas, associated \nwith EP93, well offshore Guatemala and El Salvador will decrease\nthrough midweek as EP93 moves further from the area. Otherwise, \na weak pressure gradient will support moderate or lighter winds, \nand moderate seas dominated by SW swell across much of the \nforecast waters through the end of the week. Numerous showers and\nthunderstorms are expected to remain active across the waters E \nof 85W today. \n...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...\nA stationary front extends across the NE waters from Baja \nCalifornia Norte to 21N129W. Moderate to fresh winds and rough \nseas of 7 to 10 ft in NW swell cover the waters N of 20N. Light \nto gentle winds and seas of 6 to 8 ft in merging NW and SW swell \ngenerally prevail elsewhere S of 20N W of 120W, except for \nmoderate SE to S winds near the equator.\nFor the forecast, the stationary front will gradually dissipate \nthrough Tue. Large SW swell will affect the waters S of the \nEquator and west of 105W over the next couple of days, followed \nby another pulse of large S-SW swell arriving into the waters W \nof 100W Wed night.\n", "title": "Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion", "id": "1218353427515736067", "issued": "2026-10-13T10:05:00Z", "wmo": "AXPZ20", "source": "NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center, received via the National Weather Wire Service", "page": "https://hurricane.terrapin.com/text/1218353427515736067"}