{"msg": "809\nAXNT20 KNHC 130608\nTWDAT \nTropical Weather Discussion\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n0615 UTC Tue Oct 13 2026\nTropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America\nGulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South\nAmerica, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the\nEquator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite\nimagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.\nBased on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through \n0530 UTC.\n...TROPICAL WAVES...\nA tropical wave is analyzed along 32W, from 10N to 20N, moving \nwestward near 10 kt. A 1010 mb low pressure is analyzed at the \nwave axis near 17N32W. Fresh to strong winds are approximately \nwithin 390 nm NE semicircle, where seas are 8 to 10 ft. Numerous \nmoderate scattered strong convection is present from 15N to 22N \nbetween 23W and 31W. Scattered moderate convection is elsewhere\nfrom 08N to 16N between 30W and 37W. Environmental conditions \nappear, at best, only marginally conducive for development of this\nsystem before upper-level winds become too strong for any further\ndevelopment on Tuesday. Regardless, heavy rainfall is expected to\ncontinue for the next day or two across western portions of the \nCabo Verde Islands, and some flooding is possible there as the \nsystem moves slowly northward to north-northwestward. There is a \nlow chance for tropical cyclone development in the next 48 hours, \nand through next 7 days.\nA tropical wave is analyzed near 45W, from 10N to 20N, moving \nwestward near 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong \nconvection is observed from 09N to 16N between 36W and 46W.\n...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...\nThe monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 14N17W to 13N35W to\n11N48W. The ITCZ extends from 11N48W to 10N55W to 10N62W. See \ninformation on the convection in the Tropical Waves section above.\n...GULF OF AMERICA...\nA weakening stationary front extends from SW Florida near 25N81W\nto the Yucatan adjacent waters near 22N90W to 23N93W. A 1018 mb\nhigh is located over the Mississippi/Alabama coastal waters, which\nis providing gentle to moderate NE to E winds across the eastern\nhalf of the Gulf S of 27N, and E to SE winds of the same speed W\nof 90W. Seas basin-wide are mainly slight with some areas reaching\n4 ft. \nFor the forecast, the stationary front will dissipate through \nWed. High pressure building in the wake of the front over the \nnorth-central Gulf will support E to SE winds and moderate seas \nfrom the Florida Straits to the Texas coast, and gentle breezes \nand slight seas elsewhere. A cold front will enter the NW Gulf \nFri night, and reach from SW Florida to the far SW Gulf by Sat \nnight. Strong to near-gale force winds and rough seas will follow \nthe front, with strong gales possible off the coast of Mexico \nbetween Tampico and Coatzacoalcos Fri night through Sat night. \n...CARIBBEAN SEA...\nScattered showers and tstms are over the lee of Cuba adjacent\nwaters, in the Windward Passage and in the Gulf of Honduras. A\nmiddle-level low is supporting scattered to isolated showers over\nthe eastern half of the basin. This low aloft reflects at the\nsurface on a trough that is moving across western Hispaniola.\nOtherwise, the passage of a cold front N of the area along with\nlow pressure E of the Bahamas are supporting a weak pressure\ngradient across the region, thus resulting in moderate or weaker\ntrade winds and slight to moderate seas, except for fresh winds\noffshore Venezuela in the south-central Caribbean. \nFor the forecast, scattered showers and thunderstorms will be \nactive across the central Caribbean through tonight, associated \nwith an upper level low. Fresh winds across the south-central \nCaribbean will diminish through tonight as high pressure north of\nthe region shifts eastward. Moderate to fresh E to SE winds and \nmoderate seas will persist through midweek across the Caribbean, \nthen increase again later in the week as high pressure builds \nnorth of the area. \n...ATLANTIC OCEAN...\nA weak cold front extends from 31N70W to Freeport in the Bahamas\nwhere it stalls. Ahead of the front, a surface trough extends from\n29N70W to 25N76W, which is supporting isolated showers ahead of it\nto approximately 67W. Farther east, a 1014 mb low is centered near\n26N66W. however it lacks convection. The central and eastern\nsubtropical Atlantic are under the influence of the Azores ridge \nwith a weakening stationary front that extends from 31N32W to\n27N51W. A surface trough connects to the tail of this front and\ncontinues to 22N54W. Further east, there is another trough near\n39W, however all these features lack convection. Moderate or\nweaker winds and moderate seas are N of 20N W of 44W. East of 44W,\nwinds are fresh to strong in the NE semicircle of a low connected\nto a tropical wave near 32W. Fresh to locally strong winds are\nalso ongoing between the coast of W Africa and the Canary Islands. \nFor the forecast west of 55W, the cold front will continue moving\neast tonight, stall on Tue, then dissipate through Wed. A second \nreinforcing front will move southward into the waters east of 75W \nTue into Wed, then stall and dissipate along 29N through Thu. A \nstronger cold front will move into the waters off NE Florida by \nlate Fri night into early Sat morning, and reach from Bermuda to \nSouth Florida by late Sat. Strong to near-gale force winds and \nrough seas will follow the front. \n", "title": "Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion", "id": "1218318629189124099", "issued": "2026-10-13T06:15:00Z", "wmo": "AXNT20", "source": "NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center, received via the National Weather Wire Service", "page": "https://hurricane.terrapin.com/text/1218318629189124099"}