{"msg": "813\nAXPZ20 KNHC 130312\nTWDEP \nTropical Weather Discussion\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n0405 UTC Tue Oct 13 2026\nTropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from\n03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and\nfrom the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following\ninformation is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,\nradar, and meteorological analysis.\nBased on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through\n0300 UTC.\n...SPECIAL FEATURES...\nHurricane Simon is centered near 20.4N 107.0W at 13/0300 UTC,\nmoving west-northwest at 3 kt. Estimated minimum central\npressure is 969 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 85 kt with\ngusts to 105 kt. Peak seas are near 20 ft. Numerous moderate to \nstrong convection is within 45 nm of the center. Scattered to \nnumerous moderate and isolated strong convection is elsewhere \nfrom 17N to 22N between 105W and 111W. Simon is moving slowly to \nthe west- northwest and is forecast to continue moving slowly \ntoward the northwest. Simon could approach the coast of western \nMexico later this week. Simon is expected to produce rainfall \ntotals of 5 to 10 inches across coastal west- central Mexico with\nisolated maximum amounts of 15 inches over the state of Sinaloa \nby Thursday. This rainfall will produce life- threatening \nflooding and mudslides or worsen any on- going flooding, \nespecially in areas of steep terrain. Swells generated by Simon \nwill affect portions of the coast of southwestern and west- \ncentral Mexico during the next few days, as well as the southern \nGulf of California. These swells are likely to cause large and \npowerful surf and life- threatening rip current conditions. \nPlease consult products from your local weather office.\nPlease read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the\nNational Hurricane Center at website -\nhttps://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest\nSimon NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at\nwww.hurricanes.gov for more details.\nSouth of Southern Mexico (EP93):\nShowers and thunderstorms are beginning to show signs of\norganization in association with a broad area of low pressure\nlocated several hundred miles south-southwest of the coast of\nGuatemala. This system is gradually becoming better defined, and\nenvironmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for further\ndevelopment. A tropical depression or tropical storm is expected\nto form well south of southern Mexico later tonight or tomorrow\nwhile the system moves generally west-northwestward at around 10\nmph. There is a high chance for tropical cyclone development\nthrough next 48 hours. In anticipation of this system developing,\na gale warning has been issued. \n...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...\nThe monsoon trough extends from 10N85W to 08N110W. The ITCZ\nextends from 08N110W to 08N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated\nstrong convection is noted from 00N to 10N E of 90W, and from 04N\nto 16N between 90W to 100W. \n...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...\nPlease see the Special Features section above for information on \nHurricane Simon, and for a gale warning associated with EP93.\nAside from conditions associated with Simon, fresh to locally \nstrong winds are funneling through the Gulf of Tehuantepec in \nresponse to a deepening low pressure area (EP93) south of the \narea. Elsewhere, a stationary front extends from the northern \nGulf of California across Baja California Norte to near 21N131W. \nFresh SW winds are in the northern Gulf ahead of the front. \nGentle to moderate winds, and slight to moderate seas, prevail \nelsewhere over the Gulf. Moderate to fresh winds and rough seas \nare north of the front. Gentle to moderate winds, and moderate to\nrough seas dominate the remainder of the discussion waters. \nFor the forecast, Hurricane Simon is near 20.4N 107.0W at 8 PM \nPDT, and is moving west-northwest at 3 kt. Maximum sustained \nwinds are 85 kt with gusts to 105 kt, and the minimum central \npressure is 969 mb. Simon will move to 20.7N 107.3W Tue morning, \n21.0N 107.7W Tue evening, 21.3N 108.0W Wed morning, 21.8N 108.0W \nWed evening, 22.5N 107.9W Thu morning, and 23.2N 107.8W Thu \nevening. Simon will change little in intensity as it moves to \nnear 24.0N 107.6W late Fri. A stationary front moving across the \nnorthern waters will gradually dissipate through Tue. Rough seas \nin NW swell west of Baja California will gradually diminish \nthrough early Wed. Elsewhere, showers and thunderstorms are \nbeginning to show signs of organization in association with a \nbroad area of low pressure located several hundred miles south- \nsouthwest of the coast of Guatemala. This system is gradually \nbecoming better defined, and environmental conditions are \nforecast to be conducive for further development. A tropical \ndepression or tropical storm is expected to form well south of \nsouthern Mexico later tonight or tomorrow while the system moves \ngenerally west- northwestward at around 10 mph. There is a high \nchance for tropical cyclone development through next 7 days. In \nanticipation of tropical cyclone development, a gale warning has \nbeen issued for portions of the waters south of southern Mexico. \n...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, \nAND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...\nFresh to strong winds, and rough seas, associated with EP93 \ncover the waters well offshore Guatemala and El Salvador. Gentle\nto moderate winds, and moderate to locally rough seas, prevail\nover the remainder of the offshore waters. \nFor the forecast, fresh to strong winds and rough associated \nwith EP93 are impacting the waters well offshore Guatemala and El\nSalvador. These winds and seas will decrease through midweek as \nEP93 moves further from the area. Otherwise, a weak pressure \ngradient will support moderate or lighter winds, and moderate \nseas dominated by SW swell across much of the forecast waters \nthrough the end of the week. Numerous showers and thunderstorms \nare expected to remain active across the waters E of 85W through \nTue then diminish significantly by early Wed. \n...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...\nA stationary front extends across the NE waters from Baja \nCalifornia Norte to 21N131W. Moderate to fresh winds and rough \nseas of 7 to 10 ft in NW swell cover the waters N of 20N. Light \nto gentle winds and seas of 6 to 8 ft in merging NW and SW swell \ngenerally prevail elsewhere S of 20N W of 120W, except for \nmoderate SE to S winds near the equator.\nFor the forecast, the stationary front will gradually dissipate \nthrough Tue. Large SW swell will affect the waters S of the \nEquator and west of 105W over the next couple of days, followed \nby another pulse of large S-SW swell arriving into the waters W \nof 100W Wed night.\n", "title": "Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion", "id": "1218283920632414211", "issued": "2026-10-13T04:05:00Z", "wmo": "AXPZ20", "source": "NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center, received via the National Weather Wire Service", "page": "https://hurricane.terrapin.com/text/1218283920632414211"}