{"msg": "977\nAXNT20 KNHC 122302\nTWDAT\nTropical Weather Discussion\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n0015 UTC Tue Oct 13 2026\nTropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America\nGulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South\nAmerica, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the\nEquator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite\nimagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.\nBased on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through \n2230 UTC.\n...TROPICAL WAVES...\nAn eastern Atlantic tropical wave is analyzed along 31W, south of\n21N, moving westward near 10 kt. A 1009 mb low pressure is \nanalyzed near the wave axis at 17.5N31W. Recent satellite\nscatterometer data showed fresh to strong winds to 25 kt within \n300 nm of center across the NE and SE semicircles, where seas are \n7 to 11 ft. Numerous moderate scattered strong convection is \npresent from 11N to 23N and between 23W and 35W. Environmental \nconditions appear, at best, marginally conducive for any \ndevelopment of this system during the next day or two before \nupper-level winds become too strong for any further development. \nRegardless, heavy rainfall is expected over the couple of days for\nportions of the Cabo Verde Islands as the system moves slowly \nnorthward to northwestward. There is a low chance for tropical \ncyclone development in the next 48 hours, and through next 7 days.\nA central Atlantic tropical wave is analyzed 43W-44W, S of 19N, moving\nwestward near 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection\nis observed from 10N to 14N and between 39W and 46W.\n...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...\nThe monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Guinea \nnear 10N14W, and then to 07N20W, then to a 1009 mb low near \n17.5N31W, then to 13N41W to 07.5N50W. Aside from the convection \ndescribed above in the Tropical Waves section, scattered moderate \nconvection is occurring from 08N to 12N between 35N and 39W.\n...GULF OF AMERICA...\nA stationary front extends across S Florida from the central\nEverglades to 23N90W to the S Texas coastal waters. A few \nshowers and isolated thunderstorms are noted near the frontal \nboundary W of 86W. Showers and isolated thunderstorms are also \nevident in the western Bay of Campeche near a surface trough. \nOtherwise, 1021 mb high pressure is centered over SE Mississippi,\nand extends a broad ridge across the basin, which supports \ngentle to moderate anticyclonic winds and seas of 2-5 ft across \nthe Gulf, highest offshore of TX.\nFor the forecast, the stationary front will dissipate through \nWed. High pressure building in the wake of the front over the \nnorth-central Gulf will support E to SE winds and moderate seas \nfrom the Florida Straits to the Texas coast, and gentle breezes \nand slight seas elsewhere. Looking ahead, a cold front will enter \nthe northwest Gulf Fri night, and reach from southwest Florida to \nthe far southwest Gulf by Sat night. Strong to near-gale force \nwinds and rough seas will follow the front, with strong gales \npossible off the coast of Mexico between Tampico and Coatzacoalcos\nFri night through Sat night.\n...CARIBBEAN SEA...\nA vigorous upper-level low over the central Caribbean along 72W\nhas created a trough at the surface near 72W, and are supporting \nscattered moderate isolated strong convection across the basin S \nof 17N between 67W and 75W. In the SW Caribbean, the East Pacific\nmonsoon trough supports numerous moderate to strong convection S \nof 10N and W of 77W and across Central America. A tighter \npressure gradient due to a strong subtropical ridge over the NW \nAtlantic and lower pressures in northern South America is forcing\nfresh to strong E winds and seas of 7-8 ft across the central \nCaribbean. Moderate to fresh trades and moderate seas are evident \nin the rest of the central and eastern Caribbean, along with the \nWindward Passage and lee of Cuba. Elsewhere to the E, moderate or\nweaker winds and 3-6 ft seas prevail.\nFor the forecast, scattered showers and thunderstorms will be \nactive across the central Caribbean through tonight, associated \nwith an upper level low. Fresh to strong winds across the central\nsouth- Caribbean will diminish through tonight as high pressure \nnorth of the region shifts eastward. Moderate to fresh E to SE \nwinds and moderate seas will persist through mid week across the \nCaribbean, then increase again later in the week as high pressure \nbuilds north of the area.\n...ATLANTIC OCEAN...\nA cold front is stalling across the western Atlantic, and extends\nfrom 31N73W to the SE Florida coast near Ft Lauderdale, and is\nbecoming nearly stationary. A few showers and isolated \nthunderstorms are noted in a band about 210 nm SE of the \nboundary. Moderate NW to W winds and seas of 3-6 ft are seen\nbehind the front Farther east, a stationary front enters the \ntropical Atlantic near 31N35W and continues southwestward to \n24.5N56W and then to 27N67W. Scattered showers and isolated \nthunderstorms are present along the front between 56W and 67W.\nFresh NE winds are within 120-180 nm north of the front and \nincrease to strong speeds E of 43. Seas are 7-11 ft in NW to N \nswell N of the front and E of 60W.\nElsewhere, the pressure gradient between these fronts, the deep \ntropics and high pressure in the central Atlantic sustain \nmoderate to fresh trades winds and moderate seas across much of \nthe SW North Atlantic S of 23N, away from any aforementioned \nfeatures or tropical waves. Moderate or weaker winds and 3-6 ft \nseas prevail across the remainder of the Atlantic.\nFor the forecast west of 55W, the northern portion of the cold front\nacross the area waters will continue to drift eastward tonight, \nstall from Bermuda to Miami on Tue, then dissipate through Wed. A\nsecond reinforcing front will move southward into the waters east\nof 75W Tue into Wed, then stall and dissipate along 29N through \nThu. Looking ahead, a stronger cold front will move into the \nwaters off northeast Florida by late Fri night into early Sat \nmorning, and reach from Bermuda to South Florida by late Sat. \nStrong to near- gale force NE winds and rough seas will follow \nthe front.\n", "title": "Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion", "id": "1218234838821535747", "issued": "2026-10-12T00:15:00Z", "wmo": "AXNT20", "source": "NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center, received via the National Weather Wire Service", "page": "https://hurricane.terrapin.com/text/1218234838821535747"}