{"msg": "460\nAXPZ20 KNHC 122124\nTWDEP\nTropical Weather Discussion\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n2205 UTC Mon Oct 12 2026\nTropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from\n03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and\nfrom the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following\ninformation is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,\nradar, and meteorological analysis.\nBased on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through\n2100 UTC.\n...SPECIAL FEATURES...\nHurricane Simon is centered near 20.2N 106.8W at 2100 UTC, \nmoving west-northwest at 3 kt. Estimated minimum central \npressure is 969 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 85 kt with \ngusts to 105 kt. Peak seas are near 20 ft. Numerous moderate to \nstrong convection is within 60 nm of the center. Scattered to \nnumerous moderate and isolated strong convection is elsewhere \nfrom 18N to 22N between 105W and 109W. Simon is moving slowly to \nthe west-northwest and is forecast to continue moving slowly\ntoward the northwest and affect Las Tres marias through late Tue \nbefore beginning to veer toward the north-northeast, and move \ninland across Sinaloa on Thu night. Gradual weakening is expected\nduring the next 24 hour due to vertical wind shear, but \nconditions could become favorable for restrengthening late Tue \nthrough Thu. Simon is expected to produce rainfall totals of 5 to\n10 inches across coastal west-central Mexico with isolated \nmaximum amounts of 15 inches over the state of Sinaloa by \nThursday. This rainfall will produce life- threatening flooding \nand mudslides or worsen any on- going flooding, especially in \nareas of steep terrain. Swells generated by Simon will affect \nportions of the coast of southwestern and west- central Mexico \nduring the next few days, as well as the southern Gulf of \nCalifornia. These swells are likely to cause large and powerful \nsurf and life- threatening rip current conditions. Please consult\nproducts from your local weather office.\nPlease read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the\nNational Hurricane Center at website -\nhttps://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest\nSimon NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at\nwww.hurricanes.gov for more details.\nInvest EP93: The axis of a tropical wave is near 94W, north of \n02N, moving westward at 5-10 kt. A 1008 mb low pressure is \nanalyzed near 08N94W in association with the wave. This system \nis producing a large area of showers and thunderstorms, with \nscattered to numerous moderate to strong convection noted from \n04N to 14N between 90W and 98W. This system is gradually becoming\nbetter defined, and environmental conditions are forecast to be \nconducive for further development. A tropical depression is \nexpected to form well south of southern Mexico in the next two \ndays while the system moves generally west-northwestward at \naround 10 kt. There is a high chance for tropical cyclone \ndevelopment through next 7 days.\n...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...\nThe monsoon trough extends from 10.5N76W to 10.5N84W to 1008 mb \nlow pres near 08N94W to 12.5N102W, then resumes near 17N114W to \n09N127W to beyond 08N140W. Scattered to numerous moderate to \nstrong convection is noted from 01S to 09.5N E of 88W. Scattered\nmoderate convection is noted from 01N to 07.5N between 98W and\n115W, and within 75 nm of the monsoon trough between 114W and \n140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted S of\n03N between 127W and 138W.\n...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...\nPlease see the Special Features section above for information on \nHurricane Simon.\nA cold front has stalled from the far northern Gulf of California\nalong 31.5N southwestward across Baja Norte to beyond 24.5N120W.\nFresh SW winds and moderate seas to 5 ft are impacting the \nnorthern Gulf of California ahead of the front. Gentle to locally\nmoderate winds, and slight to moderate seas, are elsewhere over \nthe Gulf, except for seas to 5 ft in S swell from Simon across \nthe entrance. Mostly moderate to locally fresh NW to N prevail \nacross the Baja Norte waters behind the front, while light to \ngentle SW to W winds are south of the front across the remaining \nBaja waters, becoming moderate NW south of Cabo San Lucas and\ninto Simon. Seas are 6 to 9 ft in NW swell across the Baja \noffshore waters this afternoon, while seas generated from Simon \nare producing seas of 8 ft and greater south of Baja between 110W\nand the SW Mexican coast. Fresh northerly gap winds are in the \nGulf of Tehuantepec. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and \nmoderate to rough seas in SW swell prevail. \nFor the forecast, Hurricane Simon is expected to move slowly\nwest-northwestward and impact Las Tres Marias through Tue, reaching\nnear 20.5N 107.0W tonight, near 20.9N 107.5W Tue afternoon, near\n21.2N 107.7W Tue night, near 21.5N 107.7W Wed afternoon, near \n22.2N 107.4W Wed night, and inland near 24.2N 106.6W by Fri \nafternoon. A cold front moving across the northern waters will \ndrift southeastward and gradually dissipate through Wed. Rough \nseas in NW swell west of Baja California will gradually diminish \ntonight through early Wed. Elsewhere, a broad area of low \npressure has formed several hundred miles south southwest of the \ncoast of Guatemala, accompanied by numerous shower and \nthunderstorm activity. This system is gradually becoming better \ndefined, and environmental conditions are forecast to be \nconducive for further development. A tropical depression is \nexpected to form well south of southern Mexico in the next two \ndays while the system moves generally west- northwestward at \naround 10 kt. There is a high chance for tropical cyclone \ndevelopment through next 7 days. Regardless of development, \nexpect an increase in winds and seas across the waters off \nsouthern Mexico by midweek. \n...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, \nAND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...\nModerate to fresh easterly  winds extend offshore from the \nPapagayo region to beyond 90W, where seas are 6 to 7 ft. A broad\ncyclonic circulation has developed associated with the tropical \nwave along 94W, Invest EP93 described above, and is producing \nscattered to numerous convection that extends into the offshore \nwaters of Guatemala and Nicaragua. Moderate to fresh SW to S \nwinds are just W of the offshore waters S of 09N and near 90W. \nGentle to moderate SW to S winds and moderate seas to 7 ft in SW \nswell are elsewhere S of 08N. These monsoonal winds are forcing \nwidespread moderate to strong convection across the waters N of \n03.5N and E of 85W to Colombia, and are impacting most of the \nnear and offshore waters there. \nFor the forecast, a weak pressure gradient will support moderate\nor lighter winds, and moderate seas dominated by SW swell across\nmuch of the forecast waters through the end of the week. \nNumerous showers and thunderstorms are expected to remain active \nacross the waters E of 85W through Tue then diminish\nsignificantly by early Wed. Moderate to fresh NE to E winds \nacross the Papagayo region today will gradually weaken through \nmid week as the tropical wave along 94W shifts westward away from\nthe area.\n...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...\nA cold front is moving across the NE waters from Baja California\nNorte to 21N128W is followed by moderate to fresh northerly \nwinds and rough seas of 7 to 10 ft in NW swell N of 20N. Light \nto gentle winds and seas of 6 to 8 ft in merging NW and SW swell \ngenerally prevail elsewhere S of 20N W of 120W, except for\nmoderate SE to S winds near the equator.\nFor the forecast, the cold front will drift southeastward across\nthe waters E of 130W through late Tue while gradually \ndissipating. Large SW swell will affect the waters S of the \nEquator and west of 105W over the next couple of days, followed\nby another pulse of large S-SW swell arriving into the waters W\nof 100W Wed night.\n", "title": "Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion", "id": "1218215512483725315", "issued": "2026-10-12T22:05:00Z", "wmo": "AXPZ20", "source": "NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center, received via the National Weather Wire Service", "page": "https://hurricane.terrapin.com/text/1218215512483725315"}