{"msg": "567\nAXNT20 KNHC 121736\nTWDAT \nTropical Weather Discussion\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n1815 UTC Mon Oct 12 2026\nTropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America\nGulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South\nAmerica, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the\nEquator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite\nimagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.\nBased on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through \n1700 UTC.\n...TROPICAL WAVES...\nAn eastern Atlantic tropical wave has been relocated and is now\nanalyzed along 30W, south of 21N, moving westward at 10 kt. A \n1009 mb low pressure is analyzed near the wave axis at 17N30W. \nNumerous moderate to scattered strong convection is present from \n11N to 23N and between 22W and 34W. Scatterometer data from 1209 \nUTC indicate a large swath of fresh to strong winds associated \nwith this system from 15N to 23N between 25W and 35W. Seas are \n6-10 ft in the area described. Environmental conditions appear, at\nbest, marginally conducive for any development of this system \nduring the next day or two before upper-level winds become too \nstrong for any further development. Regardless, heavy rainfall is \nexpected over the couple of days for portions of the Cabo Verde \nIslands as the system moves slowly northward to north- \nnorthwestward. There is a low chance for tropical cyclone \ndevelopment in the next 48 hours, and also through next 7 days.\nA central Atlantic tropical wave is analyzed from 04N44W to\n19N42W, moving westward near 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate \nconvection is observed from 08N to 12N and between 39W and 45W.\n...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...\nThe monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Guinea \nnear 10N14W, and then curves to 08N20W, then to a 1009 mb low near\n17N30W, then to 05.5N51W. Aside from the convection described\nabove in the Tropical Waves section, scattered moderate \nconvection is occurring from 08N to 11N between 31N and 37W, while\nscattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are also occurring\nalong and within 100 nm of the monsoon trough E of 21W.\n...GULF OF AMERICA...\nA stationary front extends from near Naples, FL to 23N90W to \n25N94W, where it becomes a warm front that extends to the TX coast\nnear 27N97W. A few showers and isolated thunderstorms are noted \nnear the frontal boundary. Showers and isolated thunderstorms are \nalso evident in the western Bay of Campeche near a surface trough.\nOtherwise, surface ridging across the basin supports moderate to \nlocally fresh winds and seas of 2-5 ft across the Gulf.\nFor the forecast, a stationary front extending from near Naples, \nFlorida to 23N90W to 25N94W will dissipate through Wed. High \npressure building in the wake of the front over the north-central \nGulf will support E to SE winds and moderate seas from the Florida\nStraits to the Texas coast, and gentle breezes and slight seas \nelsewhere. Looking ahead, fresh to strong NE winds and building \nseas will follow a front moving into the northwest Gulf Fri night.\n...CARIBBEAN SEA...\nAn upper-level low over the central Caribbean along with a surface\ntrough near 72W support scattered moderate convection across areas\nS of 15N between 66W and 75W. In the SW Caribbean, the East\nPacific monsoon trough supports scattered moderate convection S of\n11N and W of 75W. A tighter pressure gradient due to a strong \nsubtropical ridge over the NW Atlantic and lower pressures in \nnorthern South America forces fresh to strong E winds and seas of \n6-8 ft across the central Caribbean. Moderate to fresh trades and \nmoderate seas are evident in the rest of the central and eastern \nCaribbean, along with the Windward Passage and lee of Cuba. \nElsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and 3-6 ft seas prevail.\nFor the forecast, fresh winds and rough seas across the central \nsouth- Caribbean will diminish through tonight as high pressure \nnorth of the region shifts eastward. Moderate to fresh E to SE \nwinds and moderate seas will persist thereafter across the \nCaribbean.\n...ATLANTIC OCEAN...\nA cold front extends from 31N75W to 29N78W, then becomes \nstationary from that point to the FL coast near Port Saint Lucie.\nA few showers and isolated thunderstorms are noted along and just\nahead of the boundary. Moderate to fresh W winds and seas of 5-7\nft are seen N of 28N and W of 74W. Farther east, another \nstationary front enters the tropical Atlantic near 31N34W and \ncontinues southwestward to 24N55W and then to 26N69W. Scattered \nshowers and isolated thunderstorms are present along the front \nfrom 25N50W north and eastward. NE winds north of the front \nquickly increase to fresh to strong speeds, and also support seas\nof 6-10 ft in N swell N of the front.\nElsewhere, the pressure gradient between these fronts, deep \ntropics and a strong high pressure in the NW Atlantic sustain \nmoderate to fresh trades winds and moderate seas across much of \nthe SW North Atlantic S of 23N, away from any aforementioned \nfeatures or tropical waves. Moderate or weaker winds and 3-6 ft\nseas prevail across the remainder of the Atlantic.\nFor the forecast west of 55W, a few thunderstorms are active \nalong a cold front reaching from 31N75W to Fort Pierce, Florida. \nThe front will generally stall from Bermuda to Miami Tue, then \ndissipate through Wed. A second front will move southward into the\nwaters east of 75W Tue into Wed, then stall and dissipate along \n29N through Thu. Looking ahead, a cold front may move into the \nwaters off northeast Florida by late Fri night into early Sat \nmorning. \n", "title": "Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion", "id": "1218170628803592195", "issued": "2026-10-12T18:15:00Z", "wmo": "AXNT20", "source": "NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center, received via the National Weather Wire Service", "page": "https://hurricane.terrapin.com/text/1218170628803592195"}