{"msg": "660\nAXPZ20 KNHC 121534\nTWDEP \nTropical Weather Discussion\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n1605 UTC Mon Oct 12 2026\nTropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from\n03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and\nfrom the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following\ninformation is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,\nradar, and meteorological analysis.\nBased on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through\n1430 UTC.\n...SPECIAL FEATURES...\nHurricane Simon is centered near 20.1N 106.5W at 1500 UTC, \nmoving northwest at 3 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is \n962 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 95 kt with gusts to 115 \nkt. Peak seas are near 20 ft. Numerous moderate to strong \nconvection is within 60 nm of the center. Scattered to numerous \nmoderate and isolated strong convection is elsewhere from 18N to\n22N between 105W and 109W. Simon is moving slowly to the \nnorthwest and is forecast to continue moving slowly near the \ncoast of Mexico for the next few days, turn northeastward and \ninland across Sinaloa on Thu. Gradual weakening is expected due \nto the proximity to the mountainous terrain, which could further \ndisrupt the hurricane's structure along its eastern side. Simon \nis expected to produce additional rainfall totals of 2 to 4 \ninches with isolated additional amounts of 8 inches over portions\nof the states of Colima, Jalisco, Nayarit and Sinaloa through \nearly Thursday. Isolated maximum storm totals of 30 inches are \npossible over portions of the states of Michoacan, Colima, and \nJalisco. This rainfall will produce life- threatening flooding \nand mudslides or worsen any on- going flooding, especially in \nareas of steep terrain. Swells generated by Simon will affect \nportions of the coast of southwestern and west- central Mexico \nduring the next few days, as well as the southern Gulf of \nCalifornia. These swells are likely to cause large and powerful \nsurf and life- threatening rip current conditions. Please consult\nproducts from your local weather office.\nPlease read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the\nNational Hurricane Center at website -\nhttps://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest\nSimon NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at\nwww.hurricanes.gov for more details.\n...TROPICAL WAVES...\nThe axis of a tropical wave is near 93W-94W, north of 02N, \nmoving westward around 10 kt. 1009 mb low pressure has formed \nnear 08N93W in association with the wave. This system is \nproducing a large area of showers and thunderstorms, with \nscattered to numerous moderate to strong convection noted from \n04N to 12N between 88W and 100W. This system is gradually becoming\nbetter defined, and environmental conditions are forecast to be \nconducive for further development. A tropical depression is \nexpected to form well south of southern Mexico in the next two \ndays while the system moves generally west-northwestward at \naround 10 kt. There is a high chance for tropical cyclone \ndevelopment through next 7 days.\n...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...\nThe monsoon trough extends from 11N75W to 08.5N84W to 10N89W to \n1009 mb low pres near 08N93W to 13N101W, then resumes near \n19N114W to 08N132W to beyond 08.5N140W. Scattered to numerous \nmoderate to strong convection is noted from 00N to 10N E of 88W,\nand S of 03.5N between 128W and 135W. Scattered moderate\nconvection is noted within 75 nm of the monsoon trough  between \n114W and 140W.\n...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...\nPlease see the Special Features section above for information on \nHurricane Simon.\nA cold front extends from the far northern Gulf of California \nalong 31.5N southwestward across Baja Norte to beyond 24.5N120W,\nand has become almost stationary in recent hours. Fresh to \nstrong SW winds and moderate seas to  6 ft are impacting the \nnorthern Gulf of California ahead of the front. Gentle to locally\nmoderate winds, and slight to moderate seas, are elsewhere over \nthe Gulf, except for seas to 5 ft in S swell from Simon across\nthe entrance. Gentle NW winds prevail across the Baja Norte\nwaters behind the front, while light to gentle SW to W winds are\nsouth of the front across the remaining Baja waters, becoming\nmoderate NW south of Cabo San Lucas. Seas are 6 to 8 ft in NW\nswell across the Baja offshore waters this morning, while seas\ngenerated from Simon are producing seas of 8 ft and greater\nsouth of Baja between 110W and the SW Mexican coast. Fresh to \nlocally strong winds are in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Elsewhere, \nmoderate or weaker winds and moderate to rough seas prevail. \nFor the forecast, Hurricane Simon is expected to move slowly\nnorthward and remain just off the Mexican coast, reaching near \n20.4N 106.8W this afternoon, near 20.9N 107.3W Tue morning, near \n21.3N 107.7W Tue afternoon, near 21.6N 107.7W Wed morning, near \n22.2N 107.4W Wed afternoon, and inland near 24.1N 106.3W Fri \nmorning. A cold front moving across the northern waters will\nbecome stationary and start to weaken today. The front will \nsupport fresh to strong SW winds across the northern Gulf of \nCalifornia today. Rough seas in NW swell lingering west of the \nBaja California peninsula will gradually diminish through early \nthis week. Elsewhere, a broad area of low pressure has formed \nseveral hundred miles south of the coast of Guatemala, \naccompanied by numerous shower and thunderstorm activity. This \nsystem has become better defined since yesterday, and \nenvironmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for further\ndevelopment. A tropical depression is expected to form well \nsouth of southern Mexico in a few days while the system moves \ngenerally west- northwestward at around 10 kt. There is a high\nchance for tropical cyclone development through next 7 days. \nRegardless of development, expect an increase in winds and seas \nacross the waters off southern Mexico by midweek. \n...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, \nAND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...\nModerate to fresh E winds extend offshore from the papagayo\nregion to 93W, where seas are 6 to 7 ft. A broad cyclonic \ncirculation has developed associated with the tropical wave along\n93W. Moderate to fresh SW to S winds are just W of the offshore\nwaters S of 09N and near 90W. Gentle to moderate SW to S winds \nand moderate seas to 7 ft in SW swell are elsewhere S of 08N.  \nFor the forecast, a weak pressure gradient will support moderate\nor lighter winds and moderate seas across much of the forecast \nwaters through the end of the week. Showers and thunderstorms are\nexpected to remain active across the waters E of 85W through\nearly Wed. Moderate to fresh NE to E winds are expected in the \nPapagayo region today, then gradually weaken through mid week as \nthe tropical wave along 93W shifts westward away from the area.\n...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...\nA cold front is moving across the NE waters followed by moderate\nto fresh northerly winds and rough seas of 8 to 10 ft in NW swell\nN of 24N. Light to gentle winds and seas of 6 to 8 ft in merging NW\nand SW swell generally prevail elsewhere S of 24N W of 120W. \nFor the forecast, the cold front will move across the NE waters \nthrough Tue while gradually dissipating. Large SW swell will \naffect the waters S of the Equator and west of 105W over the next\ncouple of days. \n", "title": "Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion", "id": "1218146757987500035", "issued": "2026-10-12T16:05:00Z", "wmo": "AXPZ20", "source": "NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center, received via the National Weather Wire Service", "page": "https://hurricane.terrapin.com/text/1218146757987500035"}